Monday, May 7, 2018

Elliott Wave on Sunningdale Tech

Like most tech related stocks Sunningdale Tech is one of those badly sold down stock at the moment.  It has fallen from a high of $2.34 on 6th November 2017 to an intra-day low of $1.25 on 4th May 2018, a drop of more than 53%.  Putting aside the fundamental, which the company still has a sound fundamental despite the sell down, the technical analysis does look interesting at the moment.


Above is the chart of Sunningdale Tech which I will do an Elliott Wave analysis on.  Starting from the low of March 2009, it hit Wave (1) in 2010 at price $1.145 (adjusted for corporate action such as dividend).  It then retraced almost 78.6% in 2011 to form Wave (2).  This is quite a deep correction as expected for Wave (2).  From then on it embarked on Wave (3) hitting the peak at $2.34 (adjusted for corporate action such as dividend) in 2017.  The current correction is Wave (4).  Note that the peak in 2017 cannot be considered Wave (5) as in between there isn't correction that did not overlap into Wave (1), a strict rule for Elliott Wave.  Many put the blame of the sell down on its recent weak set of earning but the correction already started in November 2017 and the recent weak earning just an excuse to move it to the final phase of the correction.

As such, after this correction, Wave (4), it will start the final impulse wave, Wave (5) moving higher (provided it is not a truncated Wave 5) that $2.34.  The question now is whether the current correction has ended (at $1.25), ending soon or still have some more downside to go.

From the chart, a clear sub-level Wave a-b-c was registered for this correction and the depth of it is a Fibonacci Retracement of almost 50% with respect to start of Wave (3).  Since Wave (2) retraced between 50% - 78.6% and due to the alternation of Wave 2 and Wave 4, the probability of this correction is coming to an end or already ended is very high with the almost 50% Fibonacci Retracement.  The price at the moment cannot drop below $1.145 which it will overlap into Wave (1) and this will violate the Elliott Wave count.  Hence, as long as this condition is not violated, Sunningdale Tech price action should conform to the above Elliott Wave analysis.

Length of Wave (1) = 1.145 - 0.043 = 1.102
Length of Wave (3) = 2.34 - 0.31 = 2.03

Wave (3) / Wave (1) = 1.842, very close to the typical case of 1.618.  Moreover, there isn't seem to be any extension in Wave (3).  Should there be one, Wave (3) / Wave (1) should be more than 2 or around the 2.618 value.  As such, Wave (5) could have an extension (longer than Wave (3)) or just as long as Wave (1).

Taking the case of Wave (4) ends at $1.25 :-

Wave (5) same length as Wave (1)

Wave (5) will move up to $1.25 + $1.102 = $2.352
That will be the same peak as Wave (3) provided there isn't any price adjustment due to corporate action (dividend, etc) and this will result in a truncated Wave (5).

Wave (5) same length as Wave (3)

Wave (5) will move up to $1.25 + $2.03 = $3.28

Wave (5) longer than Wave (3)

This is the case if considers Wave (5) having an extension and a typical value of 2.618x of Wave (1).  This will move up to $1.25 + $1.102x2.618 = $4.14

From fundamental point of view, Sunningdale Tech is currently undervalued doing a PE of about 8x only when the company is having a strong cash position.  Thus, it is very possible for Wave (5) to reach the above calculated price level.