Price finally breakdown at $1.00, something that should not be surprising. Before getting into the correction detail, Supercycle Elliott wave count is being analyzed using the following criteria.
1. Supercycle degree corrective wave shall occur in economic recession
2. Supercycle and Cycle degree corrective wave can occur in severe weakness in company or industry fundamental
Wave Count 1 (Black)
Supercycle Wave ((1)) peaked in 2002 and Supercycle Wave ((2)) ended in 2003 due to SARS and economic recession. Supercycle Wave ((3)) peaked in 2007 and Wave ((4)) ended in 2009 due to 2008 GFC. This wave count is invalid as Wave ((4)) overlaps Wave ((1)).
Wave Count 2 (Red)
Supercycle Wave ((3)) peaked in 2002 and Supercycle Wave ((4)) ended in 2003 due to SARS and economic recession. Supercycle Wave ((5)) ended in 2007 and Supercycle Wave ((C)) end in 2009 due to 2008 GFC. The new Supercycle Wave ((1)) ended in 2010 and from then a long Supercycle Wave ((2)) correction that ended in 2016. That correction was due to severe weakness in company and industry fundamental. It is on Supercycle Wave ((3)) now.
Wave Count 3 (Orange)
Supercycle Wave ((5)) peaked in 2002 and Supercycle Wave ((C)) ended in 2003 due to SARS and economic recession. The new Supercycle Wave ((1)) peaked in 2007 and Supercycle Wave ((2)) ended in 2009 due to 2008 GFC. Supercycle Wave ((3)) peaked in 2010 and from then till 2016 is Supercycle Wave ((4)). That long correction was due to severe weakness in company and industry fundamental. However, in this wave count, Wave ((4)) overlaps Wave ((1)) results in rule violation.
The only valid Supercycle wave count is Wave Count 2 (Red). Now looking at the current correction.
It is now in Supercycle Wave ((3)) and the current correction is Cycle Wave ((2)) of that Supercycle wave. Cycle Wave ((1)) peaked at January 2018. The reason for this correction was due to the several global issues -- US-China trade war, weakness in earning, etc. The correction pattern is a simple ZigZag (5-3-5) pattern. As it is a Cycle degree correction, the Primary and Intermediate degree waves within the correction are noticeable. The drop to today $0.95 send the price to between the 50% to 61,8% Fibonacci Retracement level. A very common level for a wave 2 correction. As from the chart above, the Wave C of the ZigZag has only completed 4 of the 5-wave pattern. The current drop should be the 5th and final wave already. Whether it will end at 61.8% level ($0.89) or even between 61.8% to 78.6% ($0.785) is still too early to conclude. One thing is knowing all these levels meaning knowing the potential downside risk.
As Genting is planning to bid for the Japan IR (probably next year or 2020), this event has made the price performance going forward to be interesting in term of Elliott wave count. After this correction is Cycle Wave (3), should it fail to win the first Japanese IR, this will lead into Cycle Wave (4) correction. Assuming it shall bid for the 2nd or 3rd Japan IR license and should it win, this will go into Cycle Wave (5) to complete the Supercycle Wave ((3)). This is just one of the possible scenario for Elliott wave count going forward. There will be other wave counts due to other possible scenarios too. That the beauty of Elliott Wave, catering for all possible scenarios.
1. wave C = 100% wave A ==> $0.926
2. wave C = 123.6% wave A ==> $0.837
3. wave C = 161.8% wave A ==> $0.694
Another statistical analysis for wave C of the correction, from 15th May till now, doing a 5-wave impulse.
w0 = $1.312
w1 = $1.134
w2 = $1.302
w3 = $1.035 (vs calculated $1.014)
w4 = $1.114
w5 = $0.936 (100% of w1 calculated vs $0.92 lowest so far)
As 78.6% Fibonacci retracement for the Cycle Wave 2 is at $0.785, hence wave C = 161.8% wave A case might have to rule out. The other 2 cases are either between 50% - 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of between 61.8% - 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Statistically, yesterday $0.92 could be potentially a bottom and should not rule out. This was supported by the statistical analysis on the 5-wave impulse for wave C. The rebound from today should it able to maintain, a break above $1.08 will definitely confirm the Cycle Wave 2 correction is over. Should it not the end of correction then $0.837 ($0.826, a 161.8% w1 from 5-wave impulse statistical analysis) shall be the next target.
Added 17th Oct 2018
Price hit intra-day low of $0.92 on 16th Oct 2018. The $0.92 level from Fibonacci ratio represents certain degree of significant. As mentioned the correction pattern is a zigzag and it is now in the final phase (wave v of the 2nd 5-wave), the following is the Fibonacci guideline for zigzag pattern1. wave C = 100% wave A ==> $0.926
2. wave C = 123.6% wave A ==> $0.837
3. wave C = 161.8% wave A ==> $0.694
Another statistical analysis for wave C of the correction, from 15th May till now, doing a 5-wave impulse.
w0 = $1.312
w1 = $1.134
w2 = $1.302
w3 = $1.035 (vs calculated $1.014)
w4 = $1.114
w5 = $0.936 (100% of w1 calculated vs $0.92 lowest so far)
As 78.6% Fibonacci retracement for the Cycle Wave 2 is at $0.785, hence wave C = 161.8% wave A case might have to rule out. The other 2 cases are either between 50% - 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of between 61.8% - 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Statistically, yesterday $0.92 could be potentially a bottom and should not rule out. This was supported by the statistical analysis on the 5-wave impulse for wave C. The rebound from today should it able to maintain, a break above $1.08 will definitely confirm the Cycle Wave 2 correction is over. Should it not the end of correction then $0.837 ($0.826, a 161.8% w1 from 5-wave impulse statistical analysis) shall be the next target.
