Friday, March 8, 2019

STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (41)

Continued from STI Analysis --  the next peak and trough ? (40)

The previous analysis mentioned about STI could be in a 5th wave extension scenario for the Minor degree.  However, with STI closing below 3200 level, that situation has to be invalidated.

In this analysis, going to re-organize things a bit.  The first thing is the bigger picture remains valid for STI, that is STI is now in SuperCycle wave 3, Cycle wave 3, Primary wave 3 and Intermediate wave 1, S3C3P3I1.  The question now is at which phase STI is in at the Minor degree.  As it is an ongoing process in the Minor degree, there should be no surprise several scenarios could occur.  At this junction the way STI is moving, the 2 most probable scenarios are as shown in the chart below.

 STI-1 (Magenta)
Primary wave 2 was at 2955.68 and now in Primary wave 3, Intermediate wave 1, Minor wave 3 (P3I1M3).  The following snapshot is the Degree Calculator generated data for this scenario.

The M3 value is expected to be at 3633.006 and the following snapshot is the breakdown of the Minute degree for the M3 wave.

STI is now in Minute wave 2 correction after hitting the peak of Minute wave 1 at 3286.08.  The projected Minute wave 2 ends at 3109.307, about 86.5 points below the closing of 3195.87 on 8th Mar 2019.

STI-2 (Red)
This scenario differs from the above is the ending point of Primary wave 2.  Instead of 2955.68, Primary wave 2 is at 2993.42 meanings the rebound from 2955.68 to 3192.88 is actually part of the correction.  With this wave count, STI is now in Minor wave 2 correction after completing Minor wave 1 at 3286.08.  The following snapshot is the Degree Calculator generated values for this scenario.

The projected Minor wave 2 target for this scenario is at 3135.10, another 60.77 points from 3195.87 (8th Mar 2019 closing).

Other Scenarios
As mentioned, STI Minor degree is still ongoing, thus, it could develop into several possible wave counts.  Apart from the above 2 scenarios, there could be several others but based on present STI value, the above 2 are the closet match to it.

Regarding it is STI-1 or STI-2 scenario, it is clear that STI is in either a Minute degree or Minute degree wave 2 correction.  Just have to wait out for the correction to run its full course.  That is short-term uncertainty but the long-term trend still remain intact.

Added 16th Mar 2019

STI fell to an intra-day low of 3183.64 on 14th Mar 2019 before closing the week at 3200.18.  However, that level of pull back for either of STI-1 or STI-2 scenario is considered too shallow for a wave 2 type of correction, a Fibonacci retracement of 35.0%.  While there isn't any rule to state that wave 2 correction cannot be that shallow, it is always better to adopt a cautious and wait strategy to see is there further downside (at least 50% Fibonacci retracement which is around the 3140 level).  To rule that 3183.64 is the bottom of this correction will require STI to break above the high at 3286.08.  On a structure basis, STI did see a zigzag pattern when it fell from 3286.08 to 3202.02 then rebound to 3251.72 before continue the pull back to 3183.64.  That probably is one of the few positive sign.  For STI-1 scenario since it is a Minute degree wave 2, that probably be enough.  However, for STI-2 scenario which is a Minor wave 2 correction, that zigzag could be just the sub-level of the first part of a zigzag (of a higher degree).

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