Sunday, July 14, 2019

STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (49)

Continued from STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (48)

With US markets kept scaling new high, STI might be biased towards the upside for the time being.  However, the bigger still remain intact for both scenario STI-2 and STI-N.

With reference to the Correction Calculator as shown previously, reproduced below.

As long as 3534.039 is not broken, STI still can be remained in the I2 corrective phase.  The present upside momentum could be the wave B for the I2 corrective phase.  It is only a breakout from 35334.039 then the I2 wave can be affirmed of completed.  The wave count for this scenario is as followed.

What STI is in presently is the Cycle degree wave 3 (C3), Primary degree wave 1 (P1) and Intermediate degree wave 2 (I2).  For this scenario, STI still have remaining of P1 (I3 - I5) to complete follows by P2 - P5 thereby ends the wave count at C3.  The corrective phase C4 should see Singapore economy getting into even more weakness than now, probably a technical recession if lucky else a real recession.  There is a level to affirm this is the correct wave count, breakout from 3940.029.

The extreme bearish scenario still remain in the picture as no Elliott wave count for this case has been broken.  As long as STI 3940.029 is yet to break for the upside, this scenario will be valid.  The bigger picture for this scenario is as shown.

Though the present positive momentum could bring STI higher, that is still part of the wave B for the Cycle degree wave 2 phase.  With present events and weakness in Singapore economy, there is no way to rule out a recession in economy going forward and that will align with this scenario.

To sum up, STI 3940.029 shall be a key level to decide whether STI-2 or STI-N will be the valid wave count.

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