Saturday, September 7, 2019

STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (53)

Continued from STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (52)

After rebound from 3040.16 on 29th Aug 2019, STI rose to an intra-day high of 3166.95 on 6th Sep 2019 before closing at 3144.48 for the week.  The rebound probably has shifted some analysts and chartists view that the bull run would resume.  However, don't get the optimism yet as everything still a remain unchanged from the perspective of Elliott wave analysis as neither of the positive and negative scenarios has been mathematically ruled out as impossible.

STI-2


Above is the STI2 wave count indicating 3040.16 is the SuperCycle wave 3, Cycle wave 3, Primary wave 1, Intermediate wave 2 (S3C3P1I2).  Thereafter, the ongoing rebound shall be the Intermediate wave 3.



Above is what generated from the Degree Calculator of how STI shall be going forward if STI2 wave count is the correct one.  The calculated Intermediate wave 3 target is 3833.712 and since it is Intermediate degree, the time frame to complete that should be few weeks to few months.  A reasonable expectation would be 3 months.  For the Minor degree, there are 2 most probably ways to play out -- with and without Minor wave 3 extension.  As a result of that, there will be 2 possible Minor wave 1 targets as shown above -- 3285.386 (with M3 extension) and 3395.058 (w/o M3 extension).  Typical time frame for Minor degree is few weeks and hence if STI is unable to move up to at least 3285.386 within 2 weeks since 29th Aug 2019, the probability of STI2 wave count is incorrect will increase.  To further narrow down and track the correctness of STI2 wave count, the progress of the Minor degree (to Minor wave 1) should be monitored in its Minute (and Minuette) degree Elliott wave pattern.



Above is  the breakdown of the Minor wave 1 Elliott wave pattern with the Sub Wave being the Minuette degree for its respective Minute degree wave.  Typical time frames for Minute degree is days and for Minuette degree is hours (need to use hourly chart to track the pattern).  STI hitting a high of 3166.95 is already within the range of Minute wave 1 (3149.832 to 3198.88) and should going forward STI could develop the Minute wave 2 correction and embark on Minute wave 3 by end of next week, this will increase the likelihood of STI2 scenario.

Time is the deciding factor now for STI2 scenario to be the correct wave count.  Should STI fail to reach those target levels (Minute, Minor and Intermediate degree) within the typical timing guideline, the correctness of STI2 wave count will be questionable.

STI-N


Above is the wave count for STI-N scenario stating STI now is in SuperCycle wave 2, Cycle wave C, Primary wave 3 correction.  To complete SuperCycle wave 2 correction, STI still have Primary wave 3 to 5 to go to complete Cycle wave C thereby ending SuperCycle wave 2.  Since Cycle wave B is more than 100% of Cycle wave A, structurally, a Flat pattern should occur creating a 3-3-5 structure.  This is why there is a 5-way impulse/diagonal in the analysis.


Above is what the Correction Calculator generates for the SuperCycle wave 2 correction.  Cycle wave B is 109% of Cycle wave A thereby forming a Flat correction pattern (3-3-5).  The possible target for the 5-wave impulse/diagonal down shall be between 100% to 161.8% of wave AB ranging from 2528.44 to 1840.476 as highlighted above.


In order to check the validity of the STI-N scenario based on current situation, the Primary degree 5-wave impulse of Cycle wave C is generated by the Fibonacci Calculator as shown above.  Unfortunately, the Elliott Wave Calculator still yet to be able to calculate diagonal wave (now still under development), therefore, that part could not be shown.  Primary wave 1 and wave 2 already happened at 2955.68 and 3415.18 respectively and with that the expected Primary wave 5 value is 2165.294, which is between the 123.6% to 138.2% of C = AB as shown in the above Correction Calculator.  This makes it a very possible wave count at the moment.  The rebound presently in this case represents the Intermediate B (or Intermediate 2) with Intermediate A (or Intermediate 1) completed at 3040.16.  In this stretch, STI could either do a A-B-C 3-wave or 5-wave impulse/diagonal.  As this is the Primary degree analysis, time frame for the 5-wave movement to occur ie for Cycle wave C to finally complete can be from few months to a year.  Since Primary wave 1 and 2 already completed, it probably has a time frame of 6 months to finish Primary wave 3 to 5.

Thus, STI-N scenario despite the recent rebound has not been mathematically ruled out to be impossible.  From the above analysis, the rebound is the very last chance to exit for this scenario.

It is a fine line in between situation now for STI as either the STI-2 or the STI-N scenario still consider valid.  The important factor to decide which shall be the time frame !


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