Friday, February 19, 2021

STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (86)

Continued from STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (85)


As mentioned in previous analysis the low of 2,873.77 on 1st Feb 2021 couldn't be end of Intermediate wave ((i)) of Primary wave 5.  STI hits an even lower low on 19th Feb 2021 at 2,869.3 thereby confirming STI still on Intermediate wave ((i)).  The rebound from 1st Feb 2021 was just the Minor (a) and (b) of the Intermediate wave ((i)).

So, is 2,869.3 the end of Intermediate wave ((i)) since STI rebounded from that intra-day low to close 2,880.64 ?  Unfortunately, no absolutely answer.  From the above Correction Calculator, STI 2,869.30 was just 63% (wave c of wave a).  It meets the minimum guideline of 61.8% but fall short of the typical 100% which is at 2,816.28.  It could even fall further to hit the 161.8% at 2,727.671.  Next, looking at the time frame for this Intermediate wave ((i)).  As of 19th Feb 2021, duration of Intermediate wave ((i)) is 20 days.  Taking Primary wave 1 as a reference (as typically wave 1 and wave 5 should be roughly the same) and divided that into 5 phases (for the 5 Intermediate waves), the time frame for each of the Intermediate wave is roughly about 25 days (if it is evenly spread out).  Thus, at 20th day now, Intermediate wave ((i)) should be coming to an end in few days time.  

After Intermediate wave ((i)) shall be the rebound Intermediate wave ((ii)).  This is where you will see majority of the people rush in to chase the price given the mentality now is every pull back is an opportunity.  Unfortunately, Intermediate wave ((ii)) is the last chance to really exit if misses the exit at Primary wave 4 in January 2021.  As mentioned previously, Primary wave 5 could take at least or around 6 months to complete so rushing in now is definitely not the correct timing given still have Intermediate wave ((iii)) to ((v)) to go.

Above analysis is taking the scenario that Primary wave 5 is doing a 5-wave impulse/diagonal.  Primary wave 5 could be a simple zigzag or even a complicated double-three.  However, at this moment, the analysis is biased toward 5-wave impulse/diagonal.  Along the way when the shape of the pattern and the time frame guideline mature, we shall know which will be correct one.

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