Monday, December 17, 2012

Market Summary -- 17th Dec 12

FTSE STI closed 3,158.70, down 9.73 points or -0.31% with a total volume of 1.91b and a total value of S$940M.  Total number of advance vs decline was 170 vs 241.  Of the 30 component index stocks, 7 closed positive, 4 unchanged and 19 closed negative.  The top 5 gainer component stocks were :-

1. CityDev  +0.200
2. JSH 500US$  +0.110
3. Jardine C&C  +0.090
4. F&N  +0.060
5. SIA  +0.040

The top 5 loser component stocks were :-

1. JMH 400US$  -0.300
2. UOB  -0.100
3. Capitaland  -0.080
4. ComfortDelGro  -0.070
5. OCBC  -0.060

US markets closed negative with at least 0.3% drop last Friday as concern of the fiscal cliff weighed on.  Asian bourses were mixed and mostly in the red for the day after series of events over the weekend.  Nikkei +0.94%, SSE +0.45% and HSI -0.41%.  STI fell 0.31% in moderate but thin volume of less than S$1b.  Only 7 of the 30 index stocks managed to register positive closing.

Over the weekend, China new leaders stressed on focusing on quality and sustainable growth for next year which meant no more double-digital type of GDP.  Japan held its election on Sunday and as predicted the LDP did a landslide win regaining control of the Government and Shinzo Abe becomes the 6th PM within the last 5 years.  That news boosted Nikkei to 8-month high as hoping for new leadership can help Japan out of recession which they couldn't recover since the March 2011 tsunami and coupling with economic hit due to the island dispute with China.  Shinzo Abe is not new to the office as 5 years ago he stepped down from the post due to health issue.  With his experience, expectation will be on him and his Government to unleash stimulus and mending relationship with China to help Japan recovers from recession.

US fiscal cliff at the moment still no progress but Republican hinted out compromise over the tax hike over the weekend when they said willing to accept for tax hike for household having combine income of over US$1m and not having cut on entitlements like to healthcare sector.  The ball is now on Obama and Democrates hand for the next step.  Should still no deal by end of this week, afraid markets will start to panic sell down.

Singapore reported November non-oil export coming in at -2.5% against expectation of +2.1%.  The unexpected drop reinforced the weak export activities Singapore is facing with Europe and US.

STI drop could be played down to 2 factors.  The post fund managers book closing which happened last week causing STI to hit 52-week high ceased as they start going on leave.  The other factor is none other than being cautious for the fiscal cliff as still no progress and no deal as the clock ticks towards the end of the year.

This pull back will be the real bottom.  Though stock prices might not hit the same low or even lower than the November drop, it nevertheless give more confirmation of the bottom.