SPH -- The Final Nail In The Coffin

By know it shouldn't be a secret that Keppel Corp offer to acquire SPH less the media business in a S$3.4 billion deal.  Under the offer, SPH shareholders will receive 66.8 cents in cash per share together with 0.596 Keppel Reit units and 0.782 SPH Reit units per share.  The total consideration is about S$2.099 per share based on share price of Keppel Reit (S$1.20) and SPH Reit (S$0.915) as of 30th July 2021.

Since 2017 when SPH announced appointing Ng Yat Chung as CEO (26th May 2017), I have written 3 blogs on SPH.

SPH -- A No No For Me.............  (21st Sep 2017)

SPH -- All Times Low Since 1998 !!!  (28th Jul 2019)

SPH Saga  (10th May 2021)

So with the current event, privatization, this is the time to finally close the chapter on SPH.  Well I wasn't a single day SPH investor so the whole thing in no way will have any impact on my investment.  Let just close this analysis with a chart of SPH from 1998 till present.  As the saying "The Picture Said It All" so not going to write some lengthly post here.

For SPH investors, how much you have gained or loss in the investment throughout the years, the above chart speaks for itself.  

Good Luck to the existing SPH shareholders !!!

SPH Saga

Don't think I need to elaborate on the latest SPH saga as majority of the nation should know by now what has happened.  If still don't know what's going on, just go to any social media network and you can read it up all you can.

After the saga, I browsed through my blog and found I actually have 2 posts on SPH.  One was SPH --  A No No No For Me......... on 21st Sep 2017 and the other SPH -- All Times Low Since 1998 !!! on 28th Jul 2019.  Well looking at both the titles, can tell none of those posts are of anything good on SPH.

The most interesting one was the post in 2017, yes almost 4 years ago when the share price then was still above $2.50 and now as of 7th May 2021 closing, the share price was $1.52, more than $1 different in the wrong direction.  In that 2017 posts, I quoted 4 main fundamental reasons for not investing in SPH (Management Team, Monopoly Business, Quality of Business and Diversifying in Business) and looking at what has happened in SPH now, could hardly say I wasn't spot on then.

Management Team

Don't think I'm the only one in this nation who questioned the quality and qualification of the CEO to fill in that role.  Last time people talk about IQ being one of the quality for successfully people and now it has became EQ.  EQ is the ability to understand, use and manage your own emotions in positive ways to relieve stress, communicate effectively, empathize with others, overcome challenges and defuse conflict.  Looking at the action of the CEO at the saga, do I actually need to explicitly detail out how good his EQ is ?  EQ is not measured by how many Master degrees you are holding or which Ivy league university you have attended for sure.  What's the point of having so many Master degrees when they are actually Master of Failure, Master of Born Loser and Master of None.  haha !!!

Monopoly Business

Many might be surprised why I put Monopoly Business as one of the fundamental factor in 2017.  Hey, monopoly business means sure revenue and profit unless you have totally no customers right.  For me to put monopoly business down as one of the key fundamental reason is because I've looked wider than that.  Now, SPH decides to spin off the media business to a non-profitable entity fully justified my point back in 2017.

Quality of Business

The saga origins from the "U" word right ?  What made the "U" word splashing out like the water being splashed out from the Merlion's mouth was none other than independence of the newspaper.  That's the quality of business I was referring to in 2017.  As a public listed company, the quality is already being put into question and now with spinning off that further put pressure on it. 

Diversifying in Business

In the 2017 post, I wrote "if such diversification is to be used mainly to offset the loss of its main business unit then fundamentally, the company or corporation is not right already."  That statement was referring to SPH investment into property (retail, healthcare, student accommodation, etc).  Now with the media business being spin-off, what's left of SPH is nothing but a "property" company.  Is SPH a property developer like Capitaland, City Development, UOL, Keppel Land or even Ho Bee ?  Unfortunately no, SPH doesn't build any property.  Even if it intends to do so going forward, how it can compete with those heavy weights ?  Singapore is a small nation with limited property spaces.  Those property heavy weights all have diversifying business outside Singapore.  SPH move ?  If it is not a property developer then is it a Reits ?  If its function like a reits, its doesn't have a strong sponsor like those of Capitaland reits, Ascenadas reits, Mapletree reits and Frasers reits.  What's make it attractive enough for investors to invest in ?  So what's is it now with its business strategy in property sector ?

"GOOD LUCK", that the only word I can say to those long term retail investors in Singapore Press Holdings or is it Singapore Property Holdings ?

Guess the friend that I advised to cut loss in 2017 must surely have to treat me liao  :)

V Shape Recovery ?

V shape recovery !

These few words have appeared in social media, bloggers' post and analysts in recent days.  Putting aside whether it is index or individual stock, it is better to do a detail analysis before concluding it is so.

Above chart is one of the stock that have people talking about V shape recovery.  The name of the stock has to be blank off as this is not particularly analyzing the stock but rather on V shape recovery in general.

Black Label

The black line clearly shows a V shape.  Thus, if by looking at it, yes it is a V shape recovery.  In fact lot of claiming V shape recovery are just drawing that to support their claim.

Blue Label

Plain looking at trend line does not necessary translates into truth.  The blue label is an EW analysis.  The corrective wave A-B-C starting from price $2.48 to $1.46 indicates the correction is over.  Thus, whatever follows next is the new uptrend.  Based on this analysis yes one might conclude it is indeed V shape recovery. 

So confirm + chop V shape recovery !  Afraid answer is NO

Above is the Correction Calculator generated value for the A-B-C corrective wave.  Wave B is 65.9% wave A which is inline with guideline.  However, wave C is 197.7% wave A which is outside the guideline maximum value of 161.8%.  This has resulted in questionable validity in the EW count.  This is one of the purpose of the Elliott Wave Calculator (Fibonacci Calculator, Correction Calculator and Degree Calculator) that I've developed -- to help check blind spot in EW count.

So can we still confirm it is V shape recovery ?

Red Label

So, if isn't V shape recovery then what ?  Look at the Red labeling of the EW count in the above chart.  The fall from $2.48 to $1.46 (in the Blue Label case is A-B-C) works out to be a 5-wave structure ((i))-((ii))-((iii))-((iv))-((v)) which eventually forms the wave A of the corrective structure.  5-wave pattern in wave A is allowed as the most common zigzag pattern is of the 5-3-5 nature.  That means the rebound from $1.46 to $2.15 (as of 5th Jun 2020) is nothing but wave B of the ongoing correction only.  After wave B will be the last drop wave C.  So is it still V shape given it still have one more nasty and ugly drop which potentially will break below $1.46 ?

Above is generated from the Fibonacci Calculator to check and verify on the 5-wave wave A.  Wave ((ii)) is 65.9% wave ((i)) compared with the norm of 61.8%.  Wave ((iii)) is 181.8% wave ((i)) which fulfills the 161.8% guideline.  Wave ((iv)) is 48.7% wave ((iii)) which is more than the common 38.2% but is not a violation.  In fact, wave ((iv)) is allow to overlap wave ((i)) in corrective 5-wave pattern to form diagonal wave.  The golden ratio is 0.549 : 0.451 compares to the ideal case of 0.618 : 0.382.  That again is not a violation.  Thus, there isn't any EW violation to conclude the 5-wave pattern is invalid.

For wave B, a sub-level 5-wave pattern was spotted in forming wave ((a)).  The ongoing wave ((c)) so far is aligning to a 5-wave pattern with wave (iii) as the latest count.  Should a dip and a rise occur next, this will complete the wave (iv) and (v) resulting in a typical 5-3-5 pattern for wave B, which is a zigzag.  

From $1.46 to $2.15 is 47.26% increase within 3 months, how can not be V shape ?  Percentage rise is not the main thing in EW analysis trying to describe.  In EW guideline for zigzag correction pattern, wave B is typically between 38 to 79 percent wave A.  In the case of Flat pattern, it can even rise to more than 100% wave A (138.2% max).  The above chart clearly shows that at $2.15, it is more than 61.8% wave A but still below 79% wave A ($2.262 is 78.6% wave A to be exact).  Thus, even if the rebound continues to reach $2.26 it is still consider wave B.

From the high of $2.48 falling to $1.46 and rebound to current $2.15, the pattern is following the EW count closely which strongly contradict the V shape recovery analysis.

If putting in time frame or wave duration for wave degree as another considering factor, there is even more convincing that this wave count is correct.   

Alternate Analysis

Elliott Wave analysis might be difficult for most of the people as it is not as simple as keep labeling 1-2-3-4-5-A-B-C, there are rules and guidelines along the way to verify whether the wave count is correct.  So we revert to something common to most people to see whether is it still a V shape recovery.

Pattern recognition is probably the very first thing people get into when talking about Technical Analysis.  The Head-and-Shoulder, Inverted Head-and-Shoulder, Cup-with-Handle, the Ascending Triangle, the Descending Triangle, the Symmetrical Triangle, the Bull Flag, the Bear Flag, etc are those basic patterns TA practitioner will first look at.

The above suggests a Bear Flag could be in the forming.  Bear flag is a continuous pattern as after the formation of the flag, the next direction is to follow the preceding direction, that is down.  The flag portion is definitely moving within a parallel channel at the moment.  The increase in volume as the price fell from $2.48 to $1.46 is also a typical characteristic of the flag pole.  The rising channel which is a MUST for the bear flag is what we are having now.  However, during these periods, as the price rises, the volume fails to do so instead it is in declining fashion, a very characteristic feature for the flag portion.  Even without the knowledge of Flag, the observation of "as price rises, volume declines divergence" should be a big concern already.

Still a V shape recovery ?

Unless there isn't any convincing opposing analysis, it is just too early to jump into conclusion of a V shape recovery.

So next time when whoever said V shape recovery, better do a detail analysis to make sure there isn't any convincing opposing view else it will be just being throw from wall to wall by the stock market only.

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SPH -- All Times Low Since 1998 !!!

Chanced upon an article on 26th Jul 2019 titled SPH’s shares drop to a 25-year low, becomes worst performer on MSCI Singapore.  Went to bring up the price chart and this is what was found.

The only historical price data I've was from 1998, anything prior to that I do not have.  Maybe SPH wasn't listed on SGX prior to that.  Nevertheless, since 1998 till now that is 21 years and indeed the price of $2.22 -- intra-day on 26th Jul 2019 was even lower than the low in 2009 of $2.40 due to the global financial crisis.  All times low since 1998 can't be FAKE news !

The above chart did not have any price adjustment for dividend payout during those periods and if cater for dividend, the picture looks slightly different.

As shown above, after price adjustment for dividend, $2.22 still higher than the low of $1.29 in 2009, the low of $1.24 in 2001 and the low of $1.16 in 1998 in which those 3 were Singapore economy recession year.  Is that a good news ?  On the surface might be but if dig deep into the technical aspect, afraid it is not.

I blogged SPH -- A No No For Me ............. on 21st Sep 2017 after a friend seek me for advice on her investment in SPH after the price plunge.  I did an Elliott wave analysis on that then and reproduced as follow the chart then.  My advice to my friend then was to cut loss in case you wonder.

Looking at that and what it is of today (above chart), it can conclude that the wave count back in 2017 was correct.  The A and B wave have formed and now the C wave.  So is that a good sign since C wave is the bottom of a Elliott wave count ?  Afraid the answer is not a YES.  What was being analysed was just a stretch from 2009.  Given the duration since 2009 till now (10 years period), the wave 1,2,3,4,5,A,B,C should be a Elliott wave Cycle degree.  If this is elevated to the SuperCycle degree, that stretch could either be a SuperCycle wave 1 and 2 or the SuperCycle wave 5 and A-B-C.

If now is SuperCycle wave 2 then this is where the good news might come in as downside is limited and it shall not fall below $1.29.  However, if it is the case of SuperCycle correction wave after wave 5 then good luck much more downside will follow.  What is seen so far for this case is just the sub-level of the SuperCycle wave A or W (if it turns out to be a combination structure).  The B/X and C/Y will follow next and it will definitely break below the low of $1.29 in 2009.

So which is which ?  Afraid despite Elliott wave analysis could give very accurate technical analysis, it is still after all analysing the possibilities for the price movement.  What dictates the price movement going forward is none other than fundamental.  Fundamental of the global and nation economy and fundamental of the company.  While SPH management team can't do anything due to global and nation fundamental, they have absolutely the control over the company fundamental.

In the blog in 2017 4 key areas were being pinpointed which I personally felt will affect the company fundamental going forward (Management Team, Monopoly Business, Quality of Business and Diversifying in Business).  Till today, I've seen nothing much have changed in the aspect of fundamental relating to those 4 areas.  With the onus of another global crisis coming and Singapore economy nearing the step of recession, it is very hard to convince what SPH price movement now is in SuperCycle degree wave 2.  Remember in times of another economy crisis, nothing will be spared !

Some might disagree with my analysis probably bringing out those financial ratios, metrics to argue.  For sure SPH management will do that if question them about the fundamental of the company.  Let put it this way.

Running a company is growing its business to produce the financial ratios and metrics and not using the financial ratios and metrics to dictate how the business should be grown.  Investing in a stock is not just fixation on the financial ratios and metrics alone.

One last thing, GOOD LUCK to long-term investors of SPH, hopefully the dividends collected all these years is able to get back your initial vested capital from this "WHITE ELEPHANT".

DBS, OCBC, UOB Analysis (2)

Continued from DBS, OCBC, UOB Analysis

As mentioned in previous analysis all the 3 banks are in Primary degree Wave 4 of Cycle degree Wave 3 correction.  The question now is has the correction over for the 3 banks ?

The above are the charts for the 3 banks.  As clearly seen, OCBC is the only bank that has broken out of the downtrend channel.  DBS and UOB still have like 6.58% and 8.94% respectively away from breaking out of the downtrend channel.  The downtrend channel is very consistent for the 3 banks to provide a fair analysis and comparison.  Point A and B of the channel occurred at 30 Apr 2018 and 26 Sep 2018 respectively.  From Elliott Wave perspective, OCBC and UOB have done a Fibonacci retracement between 38.2% - 50% while DBS just above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.  Looking at the price being corrected, UOB only corrected 20.05% from its peak in Apr 2018 to its recent low.  DBS did a 22.80% correction for the same duration  and OCBC corrected 23.82%.

According to definition of bear market, all 3 banks fell into bear market with their recent low (more than 20% correction).  However. till now, only DBS still yet to get out of the bear market as of closing price on 16th Nov 2018.  DBS, OCBC and UOB bear market price level are at $23.584, $10.88 and $23.856 respectively.  Remembered in previous analysis that DBS was the only bank among the 3 to be still in SuperCycle Wave 2 correction from 2000 to 2009.  So it is not surprisingly DBS still among the 3 banks to be still in bear market.  

That brings an interesting fact that some claimed DBS is the strongest bank in Singapore.  Well from the data back in the 2000s to the present, no matter how one look at it, is unconvincingly to be true.  

1. Should it be the strongest bank in Singapore, it will not be the only one fell into an extended SuperCycle Wave 2 correction back in 2000 - 2009.  

2. Should it be the strongest bank in Singapore, it will be the first to breakout from the downtrend channel and not OCBC for this correction.

3. Should it be the strongest bank in Singapore, it will not be the only one still in bear market as of now.

So better not build a mountain out of a mold to make such a strong statement !

Another point to raise based on the performance of the 3 banks, the linkage to STI performance.  The 3 banks pose a lot of weightage in STI despite other component stocks like SingTel, the Jardine group of stocks could move STI significantly.  Till now, STI still in the downtrend channel from STI -- the next peak and trough ? (33) analysis.  However, STI performance is not as bad as the 3 banks.  From the peak of 3641.65 to its recent low of 2955.68, STI only corrected 18.84%, not even enter the bear market by definition.  The recent rebound from STI could be said in a way helped by OCBC, the only bank stock to get out of the downtrend channel.  While STI might have other index component stocks to help it move out of the downtrend channel, one thing for sure is when the 3 banks all out of the downtrend channel, there is no reason for STI still stay inside.

Factually Incorrect

For the past days or weeks encountered 2 factually incorrect statements.

Political Party To Unite the People, the Nation

Factually, looking around the world from US, UK, France, Germany, Japan, Taiwan, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, South Korea to Australia, etc politics (political parties) always divide the people, the nation.  There should not be any different in Singapore too.  In the first place if the people, the nation is not divided then there will not be politics (political parties).  Hence, do take a pinch of salt on this type of statement to prevent one being used as a prawn or tool for the propaganda of the political party.

Non-existence of Deep Root Culture

Factually, from a basic family unit to a company, an organization and government, there always exist a culture (norm) in doing things.  This is because of the act of the decision makers of all these entities.  Human Beings are not saint and are imperfect.  Whatever decisions they make will always have negative effects being tagged along.  It is these negative effects that after prolong periods (generations) of neglecting that it finally sinks to form deep root in the culture.  It is just a matter of times problems or issues associated with it surface and it is unavoidable.  Denying a deep root culture itself is a deep root culture already.  It is only bold to acknowledge this deep root culture that said entity could change or improve to become better.

Now what do the above 2 statement got to do with stocks or stock market ?  The first statement regarding politics has no direct relationship for sure.  The second statement on deep root culture in a certain perspective has impact.  Should the management of a company fail or choose to ignore the deep root culture, the management definitely is steering the company into the wrong direction and as an investor this is the type of company that one should avoid.

From an indirectly perspective, the ability to tell whether something is factually correct or incorrect will help one in making critical decision in investing in stocks (stock market).

ComfortDelGro Analysis (3)

Continued from ComfortDelGro Analysis (2)

Another index component stock that stick to Elliott Wave Fibonacci guideline very closely.

ComfortDelGro completed a 5-wave Primary degree Elliott Wave, Cycle degree Wave 1, at $2.49 since the start in Dec 2017.  Currently it is in Cycle degree Wave 2 correction.

Looking at the statistic for the 5-wave Primary degree Elliott Wave :-

P0 = $1.806

P1 = $2.083

P2 = $1.873

P3 = $2.464

P4 = $2.22

P5 = $2.49

This will give the following Fibonacci ratio :-

w1 : w3 : w5 = 1 : 2.134 : 0.975  

w2 = 75.81% w1

w4 = 41.29% w3

compared with the standard model (wave 3 extended) of :-

w1 : w3 : w5 = 1 : 2.618 : 1

w2 = 61.8% w1

w4 = 38.2% w3

Now come the current correction portion

Statistic for the correction so far :-

P5 = $2.49

PA = $2.11

IA = $2.31

IB = $2.19

So far the correction appears to be doing a zigzag pattern, a typical pattern for wave 2 (Cycle degree Wave 2 in this case).

PB-IB = 60% PB-IA

PB-IC = 100% PB-IA => $$2.39 (hit high of $2.37 today)

With P5 at $2.49, PA at $2.11, 

if PB = $2.39 => 73.68% PA

if PB = $2.37 => 68.42% PA

A typical Fibonacci guideline for a zigzag pattern is Wave B to retrace between 38% to 79% of Wave A.  A 79% would make PB to be between $2,41 - $2.42.  Hence, current level is very close to the end of PB.

If PB = $2.39 => PC = $2.01 (100% PA)

If PB = $2.37 => PC = $1.99 (100% PA)

If PB = $2.41 => PC = $2.03 (100% PA)

If PB = $2.42 => PC = $2.04 (100% PA)

Note also that the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement level for Cycle degree Wave 2 are at $2.07 and $1.95 respectively.  The above calculation price level for PC falls well within the 61.8% - 78.6% Fibonacci level for a wave 2 correction.

To summarize :-

Should the current Wave 2 correction is a simple zigzag pattern,

Wave B (PB) for current correction should end between $2.37 - $2.42

Wave C (PC) for current correction should end between $1.95 - $2.07

Added 10th Nov 2018

3Q18 earning for ComfortDelGro was released yesterday.  Key points of the result :-

Revenue :-
3Q17 = $891.7M
3Q18 = $967.9M
2Q18 = $941.1M

Revenue increased 8.5% y-o-y and 2.85% q-o-q

Op Cost :-
3Q17 = $780.2M
3Q18 = $854.5M
2Q18 = $831.6M

Op Cost increased 9.5% y-o-y and 2.75% q-o-q

Op Profit :-
3Q17 = $111.5M
3Q18 = $113.4M
2Q18 = $109.5M

Op Profit increased 1.9% y-o-y and 3.56% q-o-q.  This is something that was expected, better than 3Q17 as being analyzed on 11th Aug 2018 after the 2Q18 result.

Net Profit :-
3Q17 = $80.1M
3Q18 = $78.5M
2Q18 = $75.0M

Net Profit fell 2% y-o-y but increased 4.67% q-o-q.  This has missed the expectation that its Net Profit could be equal to that of 3Q17 as analyzed on 11th Aug 2018.  The reason for lower Net Profit was lower dividend from its investment.  In 2Q18 it received +$0.5M or +22.7% from its investment but in 3Q18 it received -$0.6M or -15.8% from its investment.  Should it received the same absolute increment in dividend in 2Q18, its Net Profit would be $79.1M (-1.25% vs 3Q17).  Should it received the same percentage increment in dividend in 2Q18, its Net Profit would be $83.16M (+3.82% vs 3Q17).  Furthermore, its Net Profit is +4.67% q-o-q.

It is not a set of unexpected shocking negative result.  Though its Net Profit still yet to turn the corner, it is improving (2Q18 Net Profit was -5.5% of 2Q17).  This was highlighted in its presentation as followed

The worst part of its earning is over, the sharpest recovery part probably also over, now is the stabilization or the gradual recovery.  Its fundamental might not be the same as in the past due to the fact that private hired car is here to stay and its taxi operation is no longer the same as in the past.  However, its management has finally realized that and starting to diverse into other investment to offset the good old days of taxi operation.  The result showed that effort is working.  From the look of it, it just need 1 or at most 2 more quarters to finally turn the corner.  That is the fundamental of ComfortDelGro and how its being associated to the price movement ?  

Fundamental dictates the price movement which allows TA to project and not the other way round.  

The Elliott Wave count should not change much.  It is in the final PC leg of a zigzag pattern.  The only missing is an up down in IA and IB in the PC wave.  The set of 3Q18 earning is not a negative result which should lead to the formation of the IA and IB before resume the final down.  The final down to the above projected target is something not surprising should it happen as ComfortDelGro has yet to fully turn the corner in its earning.  It is gradually improving but not there yet.  Another 1 or 2 more quarters might do the work.  With that, its correction is at least 2/3 completed and probably going into 3/4 completion next week.  There isn't much downside to it comparing to the upside it will generate going forward.  Will it go down to the projected target as what Elliott Wave describes or some price level above that will have to depend on the fundamental.

Added 15th Nov 2018

The breakdown at $2.18 today confirmed the completion of IA and IB of PC and heading down toward the various targets of PC as mentioned above.

Just as expected after the 3Q18 earing the price moved up to form the IA and IB part of the PC wave.  The 61.8% and 78.2% Fibonacci retracement for a C2 correction are at $2.067 and $1.952 respectively.  If going by PA-PB-PC ratio with PC = PA, the end target shall be $1.99.  If focus on the PC wave along whereby IC = IA, the end target will be $2.05.  The expected target of $1.95 - $2.07 as mentioned above should not be difficult to meet given the breakdown at $2.18 today is of high volume,

OCBC Analysis (2)

Continued from OCBC Analysis and DBS, OCBC, UOB Analysis

A new development happened to OCBC price performance today.

As shown from the chart above, OCBC hit an intra-day high of $11.21 and closed $11.15 today.  This level appears to be breakout from the downtrend channel with high volume.  Does that mean the Primary Wave 4, P4, correction for OCBC has ended at $10.36 on 30th Oct 2018 ?  Unfortunately, it is still uncertain until the price level moves to the a conclusive level.  However, do not rule out the possibility that it is too.

This is a P4 correction, a retracement of between 23.6% - 38.2% occurs 15% of the time while between 38.2% - 50% is 60% of the time.  Also P1 peaked at $9.50 and price should not fall below $9.50 as that will result in rule violation.  P3 peaked at $13.60 so a 38.2% retracement will be at $10.95 and is considered invalid as price went below that.  50% retracement is at $10.13 and so far the low is at $10.36.

Red Wave Count

The correction IA-IB-IC is doing a 5-3-5 zigzag pattern with IA and IB completed.  The wave count suggests $10.36 is the IC-M3.  Today rebound is the IC-M4.  Since today price level already overlaps IC-M1, it is doing a 5-wave diagonal.  For this wave count to be valid meaning $10.36 is not the end of the correction, IC-M4 cannot exceed IC-M2 at $10.57.  If this case is the valid wave count, it will have 1 last drop to complete IC.

Green Wave Count

This wave count uses 3-wave A-B-C method to label the wave count starting from Minute degree to Minute degree and finally to Intermediate degree.  This wave count presents both IA and IB same as the Red Wave Count.  The different is the IC part has completed at $10.36.  This suggests if this wave count is valid, correction has ended and now is the post-correction uptrend M1.  This bodes well with the fact of today breakout at the downtrend channel.  This wave count will be valid and invalidate the Red Wave Count if price moves further up above $11.57 going forward.

While there are 2 different wave counts giving different conclusion, the critical level at $11.57 is the same.  It is at this critical level that it will determine either the Red or the Green Wave Count is valid and also whether the correction has finally ended.

Some statistical analysis for this correction.

1. IB = 38.89% IA, a guideline that Wave B in general retraces 38% - 79% of Wave A

2. IC = 61.8% IA => $10.24.  If $10.36 is the end of correction, it will be less than 61.8% of IA, something that is outside the guideline

3. IC = 100% IA => $9.20.  Though this is the typical case, it is also an impossible case as at this level, P4 will overlap P1 result in rule violation.

Thus, there is no strong conclusion that correction has ended but there is also a possibility that it is so.  Just have to watch out for the critical level at $11.57.  Should this is the case, OCBC will be the FIRST of the 3 local bank to get out of correction, STRONGEST bank in Singapore !

Added 5th Nov 2018

Fell short of the $11.57 instead just managed a high of $11.54 on 2nd Nov 2018.  Now is looking at how much it will pull back and this will have different interpretation and also provide an early confirmation that has the correction over.

A pull back not below $10.80 is the key level now.  Should the correction has ended, this will be the post-correction sub-level wave 1.  The pull back will be sub-level wave 2 and $10.80 is the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level, a very typical value for wave 2 correction.  Any pull back below $10.80 raise the possibility of correction has not ended.  A break below the $10.36 low will definitely confirm still in correction.

Added 15th Nov 2018

Finally, the price fell to hit the 50% Fibonacci level at $10.96 when its hit an intra-day low of $10.94.

If this is the post-correction uptrend wave, the current pull back should be M2.  Whether M2 has finished today to still have some more downside to hit the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $10.82 is still too early to tell.  Couple of events noted :-

1. Price hit a high at $10.56, just 1 cents lower than the $10.57 resistance level, a theoretical level for peak of M1 if this is the post-correction uptrend

2. The upper limit of the downtrend channel which OCBC broke out on 1st Nov 2018 intersect nicely the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $10.82 making it a potential ending target for M2 correction.

3.  Should the price fell further and breakdown at the 78.6% Fibonacci level at $10.62, it raise the possibility that the correction actually has yet to ended and back to square one.

Added 20th Nov 2018

Price hit intra-day low at $10.79, hitting the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $10.82 and closing at $10.81.

So is that considered the end of M2 correction ?  Technically and statistically is no as M2 can hit as low as the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $10.62 or somewhere between $10.82 - $10.62.  However, the $10.62 level will be a key level now.  Should that break, the previous analysis that OCBC has ended the correction at $10.36 could become invalid meaning it is still in correction.  If that case happens, will have to relook at the wave count.

DBS, OCBC, UOB Analysis

The following is a Supercycle to Primary degree Elliott Wave analysis of the 3 local banks -- DBS, OCBC and UOB.  It is not meant to analyze the detail present correction but rather as a guide of how their impact on STI in general.  Due to the weightage of the 3 local banks on STI, their price performance play a key role in determine the direction or trend of STI.  The process of deciding the Supercycle wave count shall not be covered and the stated will be the valid or highly possible one.

DBS

The following is the chart of DBS from 1995 till now.

The 1998 AFC caused its to ended up in Supercycle Wave ((C)) following a recovery to a new Supercycle Wave ((1)) in 2000.  However, for whatever reason, it went into Supercycle Wave ((2)) correction all the way till 2009, across 2001-2003 recession and 2008 GFC, probably due to fundamental issue of DBS.  Supercycle Wave ((2)) ended in 2009 and since then it is on Supercycle Wave ((3)).  This Supercycle Wave ((3)) is on a wave 3 extension run with Cycle degree Wave (1) and (2) completed in 2011.  From 2011 till now it is doing the Cycle Wave (3) extension with Primary Wave 1, 2 and 3 completed.  Present is the Primary Wave 4 correction, which probably terminates between 23.6% - 38.2% or 38.2% Fibonacci level.  Thereafter shall be Primary Wave 5 to complete Cycle Wave (3).  Another correction in Cycle Wave (4) will follow before the final up wave, Cycle Wave (5) to complete the Supercycle Wave ((3)).  Thereafter should be another financial crisis and recession that results in Supercycle Wave ((4)).

OCBC

The following is the chart of OCBC from 1995 till now.

The 1998 AFC ended with Supercycle Wave ((C)).  Unlike DBS, it managed to complete a new Supercycle Wave ((1)) in 2007 with Cycle degree correction during the 2001 - 2003 recession.  The 2008 GFC ended with Supercycle Wave ((2)) in 2009.  Since then, it is on Supercycle Wave ((3)).  Like DBS, the Supercycle Wave ((3)) is on a wave 3 extension run with Cycle degree Wave (1) and (2) completed in 2011.  From 2011 till now it is doing a Cycle Wave (3) extension with Primary Wave 1, 2 and 3 completed and now in Primary Wave 4 correction.  This correction probably almost done as it is between 38.2% - 50% Fibonacci level already.  The correction for OCBC is rather faster and deeper than DBS at this moment.  Upon completion of this correction it will be on Primary Wave 5 to complete Cycle Wave (3).  Thereafter shall be Cycle Wave (4) correction before the final up wave, Cycle Wave (5) to complete the Supercycle Wave ((3)).  Supercycle Wave ((4)) should occur in the next financial crisis and recession.  

The above Supercycle degree wave count is different from OCBC Analysis, this should be the more accurate one.  Despite the different, the correction analysis in that post remains valid.

UOB

The following is the chart of UOB from 1995 till now.

Like both DBS and OCBC, the 1998 AFC ended with Supercycle Wave ((C)).  Unlike DBS but like OCBC, it recovered and peaked in 2007 for the new Supercycle Wave ((1)).  The 2008 GFC caused its to fall into Supercycle Wave ((2)) which ended in 2009.  Since then, like the other 2 banks, it is on Supercycle Wave ((3)) doing a wave 3 extension.  Cycle Wave (1) and (2) completed in 2011 and now is the Cycle Wave (3) extension with Primary Wave 1, 2 and 3 completed.  Present correction is Primary Wave 4.  It should probably terminate between 23.6% - 38.2% or 38.2% Fibonacci level.  Upon completion of the correction it will resume the uptrend to finish Primary Wave 5 and complete Cycle Wave (3).  Next, shall be Cycle Wave (4) correction.  Thereafter will be the final up wave Cycle Wave (5) to complete Supercycle Wave ((3)).  The next financial crisis and recession will trigger it to fall into Supercycle Wave ((4)).

Summary

To summarize, the 3 local banks are on a similar trajectory after 2009, all pointing to further upside before the next financial crisis and recession.  The possible destination of Supercycle Wave ((3)) using statistical calculation, which really surprising as be it from top-down to bottom-up calculation all values converge, will not be revealed in this post to prevent misuse of information for personal gain.

If the 3 local banks are on a Supercycle Wave ((3)) uptrend, there is no reason STI is not following the same.  Have came across an Elliott Wave analysis on STI lately citing STI could still be in the corrective wave since the peak in 2007, a decade of correction for no obvious reason ?  On first look it is possible but after getting into detail wave count (in actual fact there are lot of flaws in that analysis saying STI still in corrective wave since 2009) coupling with the Elliott Wave count of the 3 local banks it is very difficult to convince STI is lagging so much behind and still in corrective wave.

Keppel Corp Analysis

While trying to avoid posting any Elliott Wave analysis on Keppel Corp as it is part of the investment portfolio, the finest and precision is almost a near perfect textbook scenario in its Elliott Wave analysis compared to rest of the listed stocks in SGX just worth archiving down.  Perhaps, there won't be another listed stocks in SGX that have that kind education purpose.

Firstly, need to look at Supercycle degree to determine which Supercycle it is currently in.  The usual criteria applies to eliminate and narrow down possibilities.

1. Supercycle degree corrective wave shall occur in economic recession scenario
2. Supercycle and Cycle degree corrective wave shall occur in severe weakness in company or industry fundamental

Wave Count 1 (Black)

Supercycle Wave ((1)) peaked in 1996 and Wave ((2)) ended in 2001 due to AFC and dot.com bubble.  This was largely different from majority of the stocks and STI as for rest of them Wave ((2)) would stretch till 2003 as from 2001 to 2003 there was recession in economy plus the SARS crisis.  The blue trend line also clearly ruled that the correction ended in 2001.  The only reason for that was oil price.  Oil price (from the chart below) was on a super uptrend from 1999 till 2008 and the rise in oil price cushioning its price to be still in Wave ((2)).  However, due to the economic condition during 2001 to 2003, it went into Cycle degree correction.  Supercycle Wave ((3)) peaked in 2007 (peaked in Jul rather that Oct like STI).  From Jul 2007 till 2009 was Supercycle Wave ((4)) due to 2008 GFC.  However, this will lead to Wave ((4)) overlaps Wave ((1)), a rule violation.  Thus this wave count is invalid.

Wave Count 2 (Red)

Supercycle Wave ((3)) peaked in 1996.  Supercycle Wave ((4)) ended in 2001 rather than 2003 (reason as in Wave Count 1).  Supercycle Wave ((5)) peaked in Jul 2007 and the correction Supercycle Wave ((C)) ended in 2009 due to 2008 GFC.  The new Supercycle Wave ((1)) peaked in 2011.  From then on till 2016 it was Supercycle Wave ((2)).  The correction was due to oil price crash, severe weakness in industry fundamental despite there isn't any economy recession.  Now it is on Supercycle Wave ((3)).

Wave Count 3 (Green)
Supercycle Wave ((5)) peaked in 1996 and the Supercycle Wave ((C)) ended in 2001 (reason as in Wave Count 1).  From 2001 till 2007, it was Supercycle Wave ((1)) followed by Supercycle Wave ((2)) in 2009 due to 2008 GFC.  2011 peak was Cycle Wave (1) and the correction ended in 2016, Cycle Wave (2).  Though this wave count doesn't have any rule violation but doubts make it inappropriate.  The length of Supercycle Wave ((1)) is too long and the Supercycle Wave ((2)) correction is too deep (more than 78.6%).

On a more reasonable and logical bias, Wave Count 2 (Red) should be considered the valid one.  According to this wave count, it is now in Supercycle Wave ((3)) and Cycle degree Wave (1) of that just completed in Jan 2018.  Now it is in Cycle degree Wave (2) correction. 

Above is the present correction chart.  The correction which started in Jan 2018 unfortunately is yet to run its full course.  It is playing out to be a double-three combination W-X-Y with only W and X waves have formed.  Presently it is doing the final Y wave.  

In the W wave, a (a)-(b)-(c) pattern is being formed.

S3C1 = $8.582

(a) = $7.216

(b) = $8.103 or $8.142 at its highest point

(c) = $6.42

Considering W as a zigzag pattern, (b) retraced slightly more than 61.8% of (a) (calculated $8.06), a guideline for zigzag pattern.  Wave (c) with (b) at $8.103 is 123.6% of wave (a), another zigzag pattern guideline ($6.42 vs $6.415 calculated).

In the X wave at $7.30, it is slightly more than 38.2% retracement of wave W, below the 50% calculated value of $7.50.

For wave Y which is still ongoing, should it follow the guideline closely, the followings are the possible destination :-

61.8% of wave W = $5.964

100% of wave W = $5.138

123.6% of wave W = $4.628

The 50%, 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement for Cycle Wave (2) is at $6.345, $5.818 and $5.067 respectively.  A 123.6% of wave W would fall more than 78.6% which is highly unlikely.  Another Elliott Wave guideline states that the correction is likely to end around wave 4 of the lower degree, Primary degree Wave 4, which is at $5.855.  Taking all these statistic into account and finding a convergence point, the destination is likely to be between $5.818 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement for S3C2) to $5.964 (61.8% of wave W).  However, as the pattern of wave Y is yet to the known at this moment, the above is just an estimation.  Now, the worth archiving part is not the above of how and where the correction will end but the correction itself.

The above is the wave W of the correction.  This is a clearly zigzag pattern as a 5-3-5 wave count is being played out.  The interesting part is wave (b) is not the typical zigzag but an inverted flat (3-3-5) pattern at lower degree level.  This is something rather "rare" to be seen in practice despite that in theory it is possible.  The statistic of wave (b) is 61.8% of (a) matches the guideline.  Wave (c) is 138.2% of wave (a), something out of the guideline that states wave c = 61.8%, 100%, 123.6% or 161.8% of wave a for a zigzag pattern.

This is the tricky part where people can get caught out thinking correction has ended at $6.27, the low on 7th Sep 2018.  Wave X played out an inverted Expanded Flat (3-3-5) pattern as shown above.  Another Flat pattern in the B/X wave of the correction, that is twice within the correction, something have not came across until this.  Wave (b) is slightly more than 123.6% of wave (a), a typical guideline for Expanded Flat pattern.  However, wave (c) is between 138.2% to 150% of wave (a)(b), much more than the 61.8% - 100% guideline.  If it is 100%, it will end at the same level of wave (a).  Furthermore, on its way to surpass peak of wave (a), its displays a 5-wave impulse.  This can cause misinterpretation that the correction has ended at $6.27 and it is on a post-correction uptrend.

Chart above is the portion on the ongoing wave Y.  The early warning signal that the correction is not over came when the fall to $6.67 on 11th Oct 2018 from $7.30.  The drop was too sharp and on 1 straight line down without rebound in between (a simple zigzag pattern).  Though it is not a rule violation but a high probability (warning signal) that the drop is still part of the correction since Jan 2018.  With that, the wave count has changed to a double-three with $7.30 being wave X.  Going forward, it is still too early to tell how wave Y will be played out.  It could be a zigzag, a flat or a triangle pattern.  Given that from the above, the possible destination is between $5.818 to $5.964, it has enough downside to play out those patterns.  Moreover, within the whole Cycle Wave (2) correction, there is already a Zigzag embedded with an inverted Flat and an inverted Expanded Flat, any other correction pattern is possible for wave Y.  

This correction is the educational part for Elliott Wave analysis and learning !

Creative Technology Analysis (3)

Continued from Creative Technology Analysis (2)

As mentioned in Stock Incubator -- Creative Technology blogging of any technical analysis shall be ceased so here will be the last post to summarize up all the analysis so far and what's expect going forward.

The recent weakness in global stock markets have in a way invalidate the previous wave count.  From the look of it, there are 2 possible wave counts.

Wave Count 1 (Blue)

Since the drop from $10, it has developed into a large ascending triangle with (a), (b), (c) and (d) of the triangle being formed.  The fall to intra-day low of $5.51 on 11th Oct 2018, dropping out of the triangle shall be considered as wave (e) of the triangle doing an overshoot.  As such, the triangle pattern has completed and the rebound now should see it breakout from $7, the upper boundary of the ascending triangle.  What interesting is the candlestick on 11th Oct was a long-legged doji and with the rebound the day after, it does look like forming a morning star pattern which is a bullish sign.  Breaking out at $7 will confirm this wave count but a drop below $5.51 will invalidate this wave count.

Wave Count 2 (Red)

Should Wave Count 1 becomes invalid, this wave count will kick in.  This is actually not a new wave count, it is just a continuous from the previous wave count.  In the previous wave count it was said to form a double-three combination (zigzag - triangle).  With the drop on 11th Oct 2018 which invalidated that wave count, it appears to be forming a triple-three combination.  In theory triple-three is a valid correction pattern but is being listed as rare case.  In fact in practice yet to come across such a case.  A triple-three combination is labeled as WXYXZ.  With this wave count, the rise to $7.04 on 24th Sep 2018 is the 2nd X wave.  So far, the 1st two pattern for the combination is zigzag and triangle.  The 3rd pattern is unknown as still ongoing.  The most likely should be a zigzag.  Have to rule out another triangle as it cannot have 2 triangles in the down part of the correction pattern (W, Y, Z).  A flat is another possibility but a low one as it will have to form a 3-3-5 pattern and that will really drag the correction duration even further.  As for the zigzag case, it will need a rebound and the last drop to complete the pattern.  The last drop is possible to break lower than $5.51.  While this is a possible wave count, a rare one, it is also one that hope is not true.

Added 17th Oct 2018

Update for archive purpose regarding the big ascending triangle correction pattern.

As triangle is known as 3-3-3-3-3 pattern, normally people will take each wave of the triangle to be a zigzag shape.  However, in theory, the 3 can represent any correction pattern -- zigzag, flat triangle, double-three.  In the case of Creative Technology big ascending triangle correction, each of the wave represents a different 3 pattern as shown from the chart above.

wave (a) = zigzag

wave (b) = flat (3-3-5) -- invert flat

wave (c) = triangle

wave (d) = zigzag

wave (e) = zigzag  

While zigzag and triangle are common pattern, a flat (inverted one) is probably the first time came across.

So this will put an end to the Elliott Wave analysis of Creative Technology.

Genting Analysis (2)

Continued from Genting Analysis

Price finally breakdown at $1.00, something that should not be surprising.  Before getting into the correction detail, Supercycle Elliott wave count is being analyzed using the following criteria.

1. Supercycle degree corrective wave shall occur in economic recession

2. Supercycle and Cycle degree corrective wave can occur in severe weakness  in company or industry fundamental

Wave Count 1 (Black)

Supercycle Wave ((1)) peaked in 2002 and Supercycle Wave ((2)) ended in 2003 due to SARS and economic recession.  Supercycle Wave ((3)) peaked in 2007 and Wave ((4)) ended in 2009 due to 2008 GFC.  This wave count is invalid as Wave ((4)) overlaps Wave ((1)).

Wave Count 2 (Red)

Supercycle Wave ((3)) peaked in 2002 and Supercycle Wave ((4)) ended in 2003 due to SARS and economic recession.  Supercycle Wave ((5)) ended in 2007 and Supercycle Wave ((C)) end in 2009 due to 2008 GFC.  The new Supercycle Wave ((1)) ended in 2010 and from then a long Supercycle Wave ((2)) correction that ended in 2016.  That correction was due to severe weakness in company and industry fundamental.  It is on Supercycle Wave ((3)) now.

Wave Count 3 (Orange)

Supercycle Wave ((5)) peaked in 2002 and Supercycle Wave ((C)) ended in 2003 due to SARS and economic recession.  The new Supercycle Wave ((1)) peaked in 2007 and Supercycle Wave ((2)) ended in 2009 due to 2008 GFC.  Supercycle Wave ((3)) peaked in 2010 and from then till 2016 is Supercycle Wave ((4)).  That long correction was due to severe weakness in company and industry fundamental.  However, in this wave count, Wave ((4)) overlaps Wave ((1)) results in rule violation.

The only valid Supercycle wave count is Wave Count 2 (Red).  Now looking at the current correction.

It is now in Supercycle Wave ((3)) and the current correction is Cycle Wave ((2)) of that Supercycle wave.  Cycle Wave ((1)) peaked at January 2018.  The reason for this correction was due to the several global issues -- US-China trade war, weakness in earning, etc.  The correction pattern is a simple ZigZag (5-3-5) pattern.  As it is a Cycle degree correction, the Primary and Intermediate degree waves within the correction are noticeable.  The drop to today $0.95 send the price to between the 50% to 61,8% Fibonacci Retracement level.  A very common level for a wave 2 correction.  As from the chart above, the Wave C of the ZigZag has only completed 4 of the 5-wave pattern.  The current drop should be the 5th and final wave already.  Whether it will end at 61.8% level ($0.89) or even between 61.8% to 78.6% ($0.785) is still too early to conclude.  One thing is knowing all these levels meaning knowing the potential downside risk.  

As Genting is planning to bid for the Japan IR (probably next year or 2020), this event has made the price performance going forward to be interesting in term of Elliott wave count.  After this correction is Cycle Wave (3), should it fail to win the first Japanese IR, this will lead into Cycle Wave (4) correction.  Assuming it shall bid for the 2nd or 3rd Japan IR license and should it win, this will go into Cycle Wave (5) to complete the Supercycle Wave ((3)).  This is just one of the possible scenario for Elliott wave count going forward.  There will be other wave counts due to other possible scenarios too.  That the beauty of Elliott Wave, catering for all possible scenarios.

Added 17th Oct 2018

Price hit intra-day low of $0.92 on 16th Oct 2018.  The $0.92 level from Fibonacci ratio represents certain degree of significant.  As mentioned the correction pattern is a zigzag and it is now in the final phase (wave v of the 2nd 5-wave), the following is the Fibonacci guideline for zigzag pattern

1. wave C = 100% wave A  ==>  $0.926
2. wave C = 123.6% wave A  ==>  $0.837
3. wave C = 161.8% wave A  ==>  $0.694

Another statistical analysis for wave C of the correction, from 15th May till now, doing a 5-wave impulse.

w0 = $1.312
w1 = $1.134
w2 = $1.302
w3 = $1.035 (vs calculated $1.014)
w4 = $1.114
w5 = $0.936 (100% of w1 calculated vs $0.92 lowest so far)

As 78.6% Fibonacci retracement for the Cycle Wave 2 is at $0.785, hence wave C = 161.8% wave A case might have to rule out.  The other 2 cases are either between 50% - 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of between 61.8% - 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.  Statistically, yesterday $0.92 could be potentially a bottom and should not rule out.  This was supported by the statistical analysis on the 5-wave impulse for wave C.  The rebound from today should it able to maintain, a break above $1.08 will definitely confirm the Cycle Wave 2 correction is over.  Should it not the end of correction then $0.837 ($0.826, a 161.8% w1 from 5-wave impulse statistical analysis) shall be the next target.

Added 23rd Oct 2018

Since hitting the intra-day low of $0.92 on 16th Oct 2018, the price has managed to stay afloat from there.  Would not rule out $0.92 was the bottom of the correction since it fit the criteria as mentioned above, between 50% to 61.8% Fibonacci level and approximate the level for the 5-wave impulse based on 1:1.618:1 model.  Should it be the case, the end of correction will have gone unnoticed by majority.  Should it not be the end, further downside will be those stated above.  As such, this shall end the analysis of Genting

OCBC Analysis

OCBC still yet to get out of the correction that started in Apr 2018.  Its correction pattern brought out some interesting point for worthy of archiving.

The above is the Supercycle degree Elliott Wave count.  

Supercycle Wave ((3)) = peaked in 1996

Supercycle Wave ((4)) = 1998 due to AFC

Supercycle Wave ((5)) = peaked in 2000

Supercycle Wave ((C)) = 2003 due to dot.com bubble and recession in 2001 - 2003

new Supercycle Wave ((1)) = peaked in 2007

new Supercycle Wave ((2)) = 2009 due to 2008 GFC

Now it is in the new Supercycle Wave ((3)) in which when the next financial crisis comes, it will be new Supercycle Wave ((4)).

The new Supercycle Wave ((3)) is being break down into Cycle degree (1)-(2)-(3)-(4) (marked in magenta).  The current correction is Cycle degree (4).  The Primary degree of Cycle degree Wave (1) and (3) are labeled in red.  Noticeably, there is a leading diagonal in Cycle (1).  There is also an ending diagonal (not label above) in Cycle (3).   

The above is the current correction wave count.  The Wave A and Wave B portion are defined and now it is in Wave C.  Wave C appears to be playing out to be a triangle pattern with wave a and b done.  Wave c of the triangle should be still ongoing as no zigzag sighted.  A check on Fibonacci Ration, the lowest point the correction has hit at $10.87 is slightly more than 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement, a very typical value for Wave (4).  As triangle pattern really stretches in time meaning could still have a while before the correction is done.  The triangle pattern started in July is only 3 months old so could be another 3 months more to go.  The final shape of the triangle has yet to established as wave c still ongoing, thus, there could be downside to the 50% Fibonacci level if the triangle is like a falling wedge shape.  The completion of the triangle pattern will result in the overall correction pattern as a double-three combination of zigzag - triangle.

What's interesting is OCBC is the the first bank among the 3 to develop this correction pattern.  UOB is following closely behind.  As for DBS, at the moment is a 50-50 call.  It could lagging behind OCBC and UOB to develop this pattern or it is on another correction pattern.  Both UOB and DBS have yet to hit the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level for a Wave (4) correction so could have further downside as they could break below recent low. 

As a whole, afraid the 3 banks have yet to come out of Wave (4) correction.

Added 11th Oct 2018

The drop today move it to between 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci level, probably more convincing level as it happens 60% of the time.  The Cycle Wave (1) peak is at $9.50 (adjusted for dividend) and this level should not be overlapped given it is a Cycle Wave (4) correction.  This price level is very close to the 61.8% Fibonacci level.  For wave 4 to land in between 50% to 61.8% Fibonacci level it only happens 15% of the time.  As for the shape of the correction pattern now, the triangle pattern still not yet invalidated.

Added 12th Oct 2018

Redefined the correction pattern.  It is not the triangle pattern as stated above.

The current correction is Supercycle Wave ((3)) Cycle Wave (4) degree.  Cycle Wave (3) ended in March 2018 and since then till July 2018, it formed an Expanded Flat pattern as shown in the chart above.  The outcome of this Expanded Flat if the W wave of a double-three pattern.  It then rebound to Aug 2018 to form the X wave and now is the final Y wave.  This Y wave turns out to be a Zigzag pattern, actually is a double zigzag if looking at its sub-level (Intermediate level as WXY is Primary level).  The zigzag still have an up, that is today and another down to form the 3-wave correction basic pattern.  Looking at the Fibonacci Ratio guideline, yesterday fell into between 38.2% to 50% level, a very common level for wave 4 correction.  With now forming the b wave probably resistance at $11, the final c wave according to Fibonacci guideline shall have 2 possibilities

1. wave (c) = 161.8% wave (a) which will end at $10.30
2. wave (c) = 161.8% wave (b) which will end at $10.50

Both the above 2 possible levels fall within the 38.2% to 50% Fibonacci level for the whole correction and lower than yesterday low.  This will result in the Wave (4) correction as a double-three combination of Expanded Flat - Zigzag.

As the correction still ongoing, the double-three combination of Expanded Flat - Zigzag is not a 100% assure structure as the latter part of the double-three could turn out to be a triangle too, so have to keep this possible scenario in mind.

The confirm correction is over level is the breaking out at the level of the X wave, that is $11.93.

Added 21st Oct 2018

The Supercycle wave count as above is found to be incorrect and the correct wave count should be the one being analyzed in DBS, OCBC, UOB Analysis.  Despite that, the wave count for the correction itself still remain valid.

Rectified to correct wave count -- Present correction is Primary Wave 4 of Supercycle Wave ((3)).

Added 23rd Oct 2018

With the new Supercycle wave count, this has adjusted the peak before the correction.  As such, the correction pattern is also redefined.

The peak before the correction, Cycle Wave (3) now appeared in May as shown from the chart above.  With that, a new wave count for the correction appears.  The most tricky part was how to fit in the region circled in yellow.  It doesn't look like a straight zigzag and making the fall from $13.6 to $10.87 having difficulty in provide a reasonable wave count.  The only way to fit in was a 5-wave impulse with wave 3 having an extension.  The 5-wave impulse is (i) - (v) and the 3rd wave extension is i - v.  Applying Fibonacci ration to wave i - v found the following :-

wave ii = 60.26% wave i

wave iii = 140.40% wave i

wave iv = 27.36% wave iii

wave v = 132.45% wave i

With no rules violation and the Fibonacci ratio reasonable, that should be the best fit.  With a 5-wave there, it is also impossible to fit in a flat pattern (3-3-5) as after wave v, there is still a drop to $10.87 before rebound.  Also should be be a flat, the wave c leg is too long according to Fibonacci guideline.  So the only way to fit a wave count is this 5-wave is an extension of a bigger 5-wave, wave (i) - (v) as shown in the chart.  A check on the Fibonacci ratio, the following was noted :-

wave (ii) = 44.04% wave (i)

wave (iii) = 189.91% wave (i)

wave (iv) = 21.74% wave (iii)

wave (v) = 45.87% wave (i)

The Fibonacci ration looks reasonable except for wave (v), falling short of the 100% level, meaning that could be a truncated wave (v).  Should that is accepted, this will make Wave A a 5-wave.  The only correction pattern with Wave A a 5-wave is Zigzag (5-3-5) meaning the rebound to $11.93 is Wave B (a clear zigzag pattern), doing slightly more than 38.2% retracement of Wave A.  Now, Wave C which is ongoing, should be another 5-wave (impulse or diagonal) else the whole correction pattern is unrecognizable.  At this moment, it looks like wave (i) and (ii) have formed with either wave (iii) being completed at $10.55 or still ongoing.  Looking at the Fibonacci level for this Cycle Wave (4) correction, it is now between 38.2% to 50% and is in line to complete wave (iv) and (v) of the 2nd 5-wave and not falling below the 50% level.  Just have to wait for the whole pattern to develop to see whether this new wave count is valid.