Saturday, March 23, 2019

STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (42)

Continued from STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (41)

As mentioned previous, the correction for STI is too shallow to consider complete for a wave 2.  Thus, it is no surprising STI failed to make any powerful upside last week despite the bounce from 3183.64 on 14th Mar 2019.  However, as the way STI has performed last week, it has given out further clue since the bottom at 2955.68.

Firstly, have to rule out the STI-1 scenario.  This is the case whereby STI is in Minor wave 3 with start point at 2993.42 and potential end point at 3633.006 mentioned in previous analysis.  This is because the Minute degree, the sub level of Minor degree has taken the time frame too long to make any logical sense.  As such, this will bring STI to STI-2 scenario.  STI-2 scenario is the case where STI Primary wave 2 correction ended at 2993.42 instead of 2955.68 despite not being the lowest point.  This is a valid case in term of Elliott Wave in which the lowest point might not be the end count of a correction wave structure.  Hence, going forward, this scenario shall be the main focus on analysis until some further combinations emerge as most probably wave count.

The above is the review of the 2018 correction in which it played out a Triple-three correction structure leading to the end correction wave count at 2993.42.

Now the question is the post-correction wave count.  Is Minor wave 1 terminated at 3250.27 or 3286.08 ?

Either case, STI is in Minor wave 2 correction.  For Minor wave 1 to end at 3250.27 despite the recent high is at 3286.08 is valid as that upside exceeding 3250.27 is the anti-rally wave B.  This is valid for Flat structure.  A typical wave 2 Fibonacci retracement is between 50% - 78.6% and that would be STI to be between 3139 to 3048 covering both cases of wave 2 correction.

As the Minor wave 2 correction still ongoing, it would be best to maintain both possibilities until some clear visibility could be observed from the correction pattern -- a possible Expanded Flat or a typical Zigzag.

The above 2 snapshots are those generated by the Degree Calculator.  The top figure is for the case of Minor wave 1 ended at 3250.27.  The generated Minor wave 1 is 3211.932, which is -1.18% from the actual figure.  The bottom figure is for the case of Minor wave 1 ended at 3286.08.  The generated Minor wave 1 is 3309.657, which is +0.72% from the actual figure.  Both the generated data are within the +/- 2.5% worst case accuracy. 

Note from the above 2 snapshots, the generated wave 2 ending point is at 3076.892 and 3114.222 respectively.  However, if the 2 Minor wave 1 values of 3250.27 and 3286.08 were input to the Degree Calculator to refine the calculation, the wave 2 data will be adjusted accordingly.

The adjusted data as shown in the above 2 snapshots are 3115.23 and 3090.646 respectively.  Back to the STI chart showing the Fibonacci retracement ratios as above, both 3115.23 and 3090.646 are inside the range of 3139 to 3048.  Thus should STI descend to either 3115.23 or 3090.646, that should not be a surprise either.  Do expect downside coming and prepare for it.  To fall from 3212.10 (22nd Mar 2019 closing) to 3115.23 and 3090.646 are just 3.02% and 3.78% away respectively, which is not impossible.

Monday, March 18, 2019

Education System Reform -- Not Bold Enough !

3 decades ago when talk about self-driving car, the usual response would be "aiya, sci fiction lah".  Now, it is no longer a sci fiction but a possibility.

The world has 1G mobile phone in the 80's (the 大哥大) which can only perform voice call but not everyone can afford it.  Then came 2G and 2.5G in the 90's with mobile phone became a bit more affordable for everyone to own.  Apart from voice call, it was able to do text messaging.  3G became the norm at the turn of the 21st century with noticeable improvement in term of technology -- a mobile phone that is touchscreen operated based on apps functioning like a mini PC that could do multimedia applications.  Apart from voice call and text messaging, it also leverages on social media application to connect people together.  Within a decade after 3G, 4G rolled out to give people with better voice reception, faster data transfer rate, ability to do video call and functions as an e-wallet.  While majority of the people now are using 4G, the world is talking about 5G with the first phase of specification expecting to finalize this year.  Prototypes have been tested and probably next year we could be seeing 5G mobile phone floating the market.  In a span of 4 decades, mobile phone technology has actually progressed 5 generations.

Something in the past you think it can only happen in sci fiction becomes reality.  Something in the past that was considered a luxury item now become a necessity and even a teen can own one of it.  These are just 2 of the examples of how technology can change the world.  Like it or not, this is what technology can do to the world.  Believe it or not, the world going forward will be still technology driven but with new technology emerging at an even faster pace.  Blockchains and AI are another of those that will be seeing in the next decade(s).  To accept, adopt and adapt to new technology with ease knowledge and an analytical mindset is an essential.  The only way to acquire those is none other than education.

A primary school level of education is mandatory in this country and that was few decades ago policy.  However, with the faster pace of new technology being emerged, that level of knowledge will be insufficient for the people to survive the future technology world.  Broader base of knowledge should be the new norm going forwardThe minimum amount of knowledge one acquired should expand in both the vertical and horizontal domain.

Why do we learn Algebra, Calculus, Trigonometry and Statistic in school when we hardly used anyone of those in daily life ?  That was a question I came across several times last year both locally and in other countries.  It is very true that we barely use any one those in daily life but it is the process of learning those in school that matter most.  In searching for the methods to solve those mathematical problems help to develop our critical, analytical, logical and rationale thinking.  This allows us to make better decision, judgement call, ability to differentiate fake news or financial scams, etc in our daily life.

For past 3 years, the taxis business was and is still being disrupted by private car hiring such as Uber and Grab that leverage on technology.  Taxis companies were caught off guard as they failed to progress with technology.  NETS was launched in the mid 80's to allow people to make payment with just a piece of plastic card with a PIN instead of cash.  Then, it was considered the first few countries in the world to adopt this cashless payment scheme.  However, that cashless payment scheme failed to move in tandem with technology.  Putting aside NETS using mobile phone to make payment, it even failed to progress to the "tap & go" method like those of Visa PayWave or MasterCard PayPass.  If not for the Government to push for cashless payment, NETS could be still stagnant at the card + PIN method of payment.  All these should not have happened have the amount of knowledge being passed down from education is in tandem with technology advancement.

Three to four years ago bike sharing was being implemented island wide with users just needed a mobile phone to rent for a bicycle.  However, that eventually turned into a "night mare" as users taking advantage of lacking in regulatory put a mess to the whole scheme by anyhow parking the rental bikes throughout the island.  Technology is always a double-edged sword.  Use it correctly, it will benefit but use it wrongly it will cut you.  Should the users, regulator and companies that provide the rental bikes have that adequate level of critical, analytical, logical and rationale thinking, the rental bike scheme should not turn into a sword that cut.

Policy makers, decision makers and parents today are mostly those who grew up without present technologies and needed constantly upgrading themselves in order keep pace with the advancement in technology.  Failure to do so will not be just lagging in behind but severely missing the bigger picture and vision to plan for the future generation.  The students of today should not be walking the same path as the previous generation.  This could only be achieved by equipping them with a higher minimum level of broad base knowledge via education from young.  An under-educated scenario should be avoided and disallowed.

This is why instead of just making primary school level of education compulsory, it should and must extend to secondary school level of education.  In doing so, this will enable students more times to build up a stronger and more solid foundation at a comfortable pace.  Equipping them with the necessary knowledge, developing their critical, analytical, logical and rationale mindset so that they could keep in pace with the rapid change in technology, accepting, adopting and adapting to it more easily.  It is through joy one learn and not pressure.

From a macroscopic perspective, any reform in the education system now must be in that direction.  The PSLE, streaming, banding, IP, etc that are in focus are microscopic perspective.  Both micro and macro should be aligned to make the education system effective.  With the just announced changes -- replacing streaming to banding and generalization of GCE 'O' level certificate rather than dividing them into the Express, Normal(Academic) or Normal(Technical) class, those could be potentially moving in the correct direction as it is still too early to affirm that.  However, there was no explicitly mentioning of the reform in the macroscopic perspective.  We could be still using the same old and outdated macroscopic model with new microscopic measures and that is practically 换汤不换药, eventually will be back to square one.  Though the recent microscopic measures display some encouraging sign, believe that is still insufficient.  As each individual has different learning ability, stronger emphasis on measures to help those fallen behind to catch up should be of higher priority than segregating the best from the restAt a young age picking the best, group them together only narrow their visions and create group thinking -- 小时了了大未必佳.  Look no further, we have plenty of those policy makers that demonstrate that already.

The transistor was the basic building block for technology in the past.  Now it is the microprocessor being the basic building block.  It will be no surprise in future, an AI unit shall be the one.  Our national education system if not in the transistor era, should not stagnant in the microprocessor era too.  A reform in the outdated education system is very much needed at the moment but must be a bold one.  The world will not stop to wait for the Little Red Dot to catch up.  If each time only a little step is being taken, we can forever never be able to catch up.  If we don't do it boldly, we are rightful to deserve being "sua gu" when paying a packet of chestnut in cash in China instead of using the mobile phone, just like that someone !

One must remember in particular educator, a national education system is to allow all having the equal opportunity to acquire that knowledge and not a mean to develop the best of the best.