Sunday, September 25, 2022

STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (109)

Continued from STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (108)


FTSE STI ended the week 23rd September 2022 at 3,227.10, pretty much remained unchanged from a month ago.


Magenta -- STI Positive



 

From first look, STI like already completed the Intermediate wave ((b)) and now in Intermediate wave ((c)) of Primary wave 2.  However, this might not be the case as STI could still be in Intermediate wave ((b)).  The reason for such a claim is in Intermediate wave ((a)), there was a clear 5-wave structure in the Minor degree but in Intermediate wave ((b)), a bare minimum should see a zigzag pattern in the Minor degree.  Thus, present movement is a part of the Minor wave (b).  Alternatively, Intermediate wave ((b)) could play out as a triangle pattern with five axis A-B-C-D-E, which clearly that has not been fully played out.  Though STI still in Intermediate wave ((b)), there is nothing to cheer about as upside shall be limited and a big fall in Intermediate wave ((c)) shall follow next.


Green -- STI Negative / Orange -- STI Negative




For these "silent killer" STI negative scenarios, present movement is pretty much inline with the STI Positive scenario, still in the B wave and a bigger fall in the C wave shall follow next.  The only different is the negative scenarios will have much more downside than the positive scenario once the B wave has completed.  The exception is the Green -- STI Negative wave count, there shall be a B wave in the Cycle degree, something that could potential cause investors to be mistaken as worst is over after the next big drop.



Nothing much has changed in the overall wave count for STI looking at the SuperCycle, Cycle and Primary degree level.  Just need that patience to wait for it to play out both the positive and negative scenarios.


As a general guidance, present crisis due to inflation and Central Bankers hiking interest rate to curb it, things would only call it an end when they have over tighten and resulting in a recession.  This is what human psychology is about and especially true for those who are very data oriented and make decision solely relying on data.


Tiger Brokers Singapore Invitation Code



Singapore Covid-19


柏杨写了一本丑陋的中国人,Covid-19却写了一篇丑陋的新加坡人


打油诗

主将无能垮三军
左士缺策只砸钱
右士辱人自被辱
左象无计只会泣
右象理人理出祸
左马略识色不分
右马讲据终慢拍
小卒仗权乱闹事
大敌当前夸本领
火烧眉头方才悟
城门紧闭称闭窗
高傲自大多借口
知错不认真懦夫


主动是它的名字
领导者最佳战友
为何小红点缺乏
是否无勇气拥有
是否缺远见拥有
是否不知怎拥有
还是不想去拥有

   

Wednesday, August 31, 2022

Portfolio -- Aug 2022


Investment Portfolio


1.  Strategically increased Fu Yu holding by 4.35% at $0 cost
2.  Received CapMall Trust dividend of 5.22 cents/unit
3.  Received Kep Corp dividend of 15 cents/share
4.  Received STI ETF dividend of 6.1 cents/share
5.  Received Lendlease Reit dividend of 1.3128 cents/unit
6.  Divested Kep Corp at average price of $6.2273/share, capital loss 16.53%, dividend return +54.93%, net profit 38.54%
7.  Total Portfolio Realized gain reduced from +20.04% to +18.37% 
8.  Cash holding increased from +73.18% to +83.37%
9.  Received Fu Yu dividend of 0.4 cents/share
10. Increased InnoTek holding by 28.57% at $0 cost


StockHolding Price*Market PriceUnrealized Profit/LossDividend Return
Income
CapitaMall Trust$1.155$2.07+76.90%+116.99%
MapletreeInd Trust$0.9461$2.53+166.30%+85.65%
Kep DC Reit$0.9946$1.94+94.42%+52.48%
Frasers Cpt Trust$1.6908$2.26+32.72%+31.88%
Lendlease Reit--$0.82582.50 cents/share17.6329 cents
Unrealized

+98.01%+66.94%
Strategic
KepCorp$7.4156$6.2273-16.53%+54.93%
InnoTek--$0.4848.00 cents/share2.0 cents
Fu Yu--$0.26026.00 cents/share5.35 cents
STI ETF$2.3423$3.251+31.87%+9.87%
Unrealized

+482.95% (ex KepCorp)+30.42%
Blockchain
Crypto    

+3.77%
Variant (Value, Quantity)

+0.85%, +0.01% 

Unrealized

+3.77 
(% Income cost)

Summary
Total Unrealized**
+17.97%--
Total Realized (Strategic)**
+639.12%
+122.94% 
(% Income cost)
+54.89%
85.256 cents/unit
Total Realized (Portfolio)**
+18.37%+70.02%
Cash----+83.37%--
Total Portfolio***
+106.36%--
Portfolio Variant

-1.13%
STI29/7/2022 = 3211.5631/8/2022 = 3221.67    Change = +0.31%


Stock Incubator Portfolio


1.  Received Nordic dividend of 1.162 cents/share
2.  Received Valuetronics dividend of HKD 10 cents/share


Stock Holding Price*Market PriceUnrealized Profit/LossDividend Return
Nordic$0.0902$0.4752+425.06%+93.94%
Valuetronics--$0.53--HK 127 cents/share
Creative$3.3805$1.87-43.89%
Unrealized

+207.09%+53.53%
Summary
Total Unrealized **--+63.60%--
Total Realized **
+32.29%+22.56%
Cash----+63.62%--
Total Portfolio    ***
+130.20%--
Portfolio Variant 

+12.37%
STI29/7/2022 = 3211.56    31/8/2022 =  3221.67Change = +0.31%


* = Initial Buy Price + Average on Right Issue
** =  Unrealized or Realized gain/loss in term of percentage with reference to total investment capital

*** = (total unrealized + total realized) with reference to total investment