Saturday, April 30, 2022

Portfolio -- Apr 2022


Investment Portfolio


1. Received Lendlease Reit advanced distribution of 1.1371 cents/unit
2. Increased Fu Yu holding by 25% at $0 cost
3. Received Kep Corp dividend of 12 cents/share




StockHolding Price*Market PriceUnrealized Profit/LossDividend Return
Income
CapitaMall Trust$1.155$2.33+99.26%+112.50%
MapletreeInd Trust$0.9588$2.61+171.11%+85.65%
Kep DC Reit$0.9946$2.07+107.49%+47.41%
Frasers Cpt Trust$1.6908$2.45+43.95%+28.25%
Lendlease Reit--$0.79579.50 cents/share16.3201 cents
Unrealized

+110.35%+63.26%
Strategic
Genting SP$0.5314$0.81+51.84%+38.58%
KepCorp$7.4156$6.1564-17.35%+52.54%
InnoTek--$0.58558.50 cents/share
Fu Yu--$0.27527.50 cents/share3.7 cents
STI ETF$2.3423$3.39+37.71%+7.31%
Unrealized

+13.47%+46.45%
Blockchain
Crypto    

+5.14%
Variant (Value, Quantity)

-26.89%, +0.02% 

Unrealized

+5.14 
(% Income cost)

Summary
Total Unrealized**
+21.17%--
Total Realized (Strategic)**
+639.12%
+122.94% 
(% Income cost)
+54.89%
85.256 cents/unit
Total Realized (Portfolio)**
+16.87%+69.00%
Cash----+66.54%--
Total Portfolio***
+107.04%--
Portfolio Variant

-1.09%
STI31/3/2022 = 3408.5229/4/2022 = 3356.90    Change = -1.51%


Stock Incubator Portfolio


1.  Increased Nordic holding by 4.03% at $0 cost, reducing holding price from $0.0954/share to $0.0927/share



Stock Holding Price*Market PriceUnrealized Profit/LossDividend Return
Nordic$0.0927$0.3946+323.91%+75.14%
Valuetronics--$0.53--HK 117 cents/share
Creative$3.3805$2.34-29.65%
Unrealized

+168.71%+43.72%
Summary
Total Unrealized **--+61.38%--
Total Realized **
+32.29%+18.99%
Cash----+63.62%--
Total Portfolio    ***
+112.67%--
Portfolio Variant 

-1.33%
STI31/3/2022 = 3408.52    29/4/2022 =  3356.90Change = -1.51%


* = Initial Buy Price + Average on Right Issue
** =  Unrealized or Realized gain/loss in term of percentage with reference to total investment capital

*** = (total unrealized + total realized) with reference to total investment                

Saturday, April 23, 2022

STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (104)

Continued from STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (103)


FTSE STI closed 3,361.11 for the week ended 22nd Apr 2022 after hitting a peak of 3,456.09 on 29th Mar 2022.


Magenta -- STI Positive



There is a little tricky part in this wave count.  The pull back from 3,456.09 on 29th Mar 2022 is it a Minute degree of a zigzag in the Minor wave (v) or has Minor wave (v) (also Intermediate wave ((v)) and Primary wave 1) already completed at 3,456.09 on 29th Mar 2022.

Firstly, for the Minute degree zigzag of Minor wave (v), the duration for that doesn't warrant a continue pull back in the coming week.  Secondly, for the case of Primary wave 1 already completed at 3,456.09, Minor wave (v) only lasted for 3 weeks (far less shorter than expected) and the end value of that doesn't surpass Minor wave (iii) (not a rule violation but very uncommon).

These 2 doubts added to those already existing since 2020 (all labeled in red in the above chart) that could signify this wave count is not the correct one.

However, should this wave count still consider valid, it will never be any good news going forward as the moving up shall be the last phase of the Primary wave 1 which will be followed by a deep correction in Primary wave 2.  Primary wave 1 lasted 2 years and Primary wave 2 could last between 6 months to 1.5 years, with between 9 months to 1 year being the common occurrence.  Anyone get caught during this period will have to stomach that period of holding being underwater.


Green -- STI Negative / Orange -- STI Negative



These 2 negative wave count scenarios have not been invalidated yet and still largely remain valid, staying in the background acting like a silent killer.  In fact, the peak of 3,456.09 on 29th Mar 2022 might be the completion of Cycle wave (B) (for the Green case) or Primary wave B (for the Orange case).  If that is true, the downtrend already started.  Any rebound in the coming week is merely the formation of the B wave of a typical zigzag pattern.  That is also the last chance for any investors to get out before the worst happens.



The above is the all the possible wave count for both the positive and negative scenarios in term of SuperCycle, Cycle and Primary degree.


Singapore on last Friday announced further easing of the Covid-19 restrictions.  To many this a positive sign for the nation economy going forward.  Unfortunately, the world stock markets have probably "decoupled" from any Covid-19 impact already.  The real problem that could cause another global financial crisis is no longer pandemic unless a deadly variant that render all the vaccination useless in prevent severity and death occur.  The real killer is more like what could be triggered by inflation, rate hike and stagflation.  Central Bankers are never ahead of the curve in their fiscal policies as they all rely on data and not instinct to react.  It will not be a big surprise should US be the source of the next global financial crisis again just like 2008.  The big difference now is then China was there to support global economy but now China isn't.



Tiger Brokers Singapore Invitation Code



Singapore Covid-19


柏杨写了一本丑陋的中国人,Covid-19却写了一篇丑陋的新加坡人


打油诗

主将无能垮三军
左士缺策只砸钱
右士辱人自被辱
左象无计只会泣
右象理人理出祸
左马略识色不分
右马讲据终慢拍
小卒仗权乱闹事
大敌当前夸本领
火烧眉头方才悟
城门紧闭称闭窗
高傲自大多借口
知错不认真懦夫


主动是它的名字
领导者最佳战友
为何小红点缺乏
是否无勇气拥有
是否缺远见拥有
是否不知怎拥有
还是不想去拥有