STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (VIII)

Continued from STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (VII)

In the previous analysis I pointed out STI could still be in the Intermediate degree Wave 1 of Primary degree Wave 3 coupled with other possible scenarios.  Though the case of still in Intermediate Wave 1 still valid and no evidences to invalidate, one of the other possible scenarios seems to be more fitting from the way STI progresses as of now. 

The following chart shows this possible scenario.

From the chart, the blue channel (temporary) is the Primary degree Wave 3 and that cannot be wrong as STI has yet to break the 2007 peak.  The Intermediate degree Wave 1 and Wave 2 have completed as indicated.  STI is in Intermediate degree Wave 3 now.  This Wave 3 bounded by the green-colored channel is playing out an extension, the 3rd Wave extension of 3rd Wave case.  In the last analysis the case of a 3rd wave extension of wave 3 slipped off my mind resulting in unable to figure out where the mini Elliott Wave (marked as Minor 3-1 in the chart) fit in.  Hence, a very conservative view was taken.

Minor Wave 1 and Wave 2 of the Intermediate Wave 3 have completed as shown and the mini Elliott Wave shall be seen as the Wave 1 of the extended Minor Wave 3 (denoted as 3-1) and the present correction as the Wave 2 of the extended Minor Wave 3 (denoted as 3-2).  After this correction, the sequence will be Wave 3, Wave 4 and Wave 5 (denoted by 3-3, 3-4, 3-5) of the extended Minor Wave 3 to complete the Minor Wave 3.  Following that will be Minor Wave 4 and finally Minor Wave 5 to complete Intermediate Wave 3.  Based on that sequence, by the end of Intermediate Wave 3 STI should be higher than 2007 peak.

From the above chart, can see that there is a change of gradient of the slope from the blue-colored to the green-colored trendline, a change to a steep one.  If STI does not breakdown at the green-colored trendline this very much further confirm that current STI is in Intermediate Wave 3 of Primary Wave 3 doing 3rd wave extension of the 3rd wave, the steepest climb of the Elliott Wave cycle started in 2009.

As for the current correction, that is the Wave 2 of the extended Minor Wave 3 (3-2), it is forming a triangle pattern and with the count (a, b, c, d, e) appears to be played out already, there is a possibility that the correction is coming to an end.  A breaking out of the triangle should confirm that.  If that is so, Wave 3 of the extended Minor Wave 3 (3-3) will be next and that should break the January 2018 high of 3611.

From statistic point of perspective for the abovementioned scenario.

Length of Intermediate Wave 1 = 440 (2968 - 2528)
Possible length of Intermediate Wave 3 = 2.618 x length of Intermediate Wave 1
                                                                = 1151.92
                                                                = about 1152
End point of Intermediate Wave 3 = 2758 + 1152
                                                       = 3910

That value 3910 is definitely past the 2007 peak.  Moreover Primary Wave 3 still have Intermediate Wave 5 to move up further.  Note also, the Fibonacci Ratio of 2.618 was used to calculate length of Wave 3 as only with an extension in the 3rd wave then can achieve such a length in textbook case.

In summary, as long as the green-colored channel does not breakdown this scenario will be of higher possibilities than the one mentioned in previous analysis.

I have came across some analysts talking about the best part of the gain since the bottom in 2016 is over due to the present correction.  If the scenario as described above is being played out, the best part of the gain is just to be begin only.

Personally, I'm biased towards the above scenario than the previous one described in STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (VII).