Sunday, September 16, 2018

Creative Technology Analysis

Have been tracking Creative Technology since the price fell from $10.  Was curious then whether the correction from $10 followed any Elliott Wave pattern.  After all not all stocks' price performance follow Elliott Wave.  Initially, it didn't seem like it but as the correction progress from June 2018 onward, the pattern seems more and more following an Elliott Wave pattern.


The above chart shows how the correction has been played out with a Double-three combination of zigzag - triangle and price action is at the end of the correction should it follow Elliott Wave.

The first part of the Double-three combination, zigzag was the unsure part initially that it follows Elliott Wave.  Normally, a zigzag pattern which is a 5-3-5 pattern is formed by a 5-wave impulse/diagonal for wave A, a zigzag for wave B and another 5-wave impulse/diagonal for wave C.  In the above case, there isn't any obvious 5-3-5 pattern being developed.  However, if looking at another perspective that the zigzag is actually formed by a double zigzag at a lower degree level (a-b-c-x-a-b-c) resulting in the w-x-y pattern then it makes some sense.  Another possible explanation for not able to observe a 5-3-5 could be due to the fact that the stock is normally thinly traded and it is able to move or down a few bids at the close with just a buy or sell of minimum board lot size of 50 share by anybody.  

The zigzag part will form the (w) wave of the Double-three.  The (x) wave is the moving up in June 2018 hitting an intra-day high of $7.  Thereafter is the interesting part, the triangle formation, the (y) wave.  Have read about a combination ending with triangle before but never really seen one practically for the stocks being analyzed so far.  Thus, the moment wave (y) seems like forming a triangle caught my attention.  So far, note a, b, c, d and maybe e have been formed for the triangle as shown in the chart above.  The confirmation will be the breaking out of the triangle at $6 with high volume.  More interestingly, this is the period whereby Creative Technology should be launching its Super X-Fi as in its recent FY18 earning it reveals that the shipping of Super X-Fi will begin in 4Q18 (or 2QFY19), which is just half a month away.  The shoot up to $10 in March 2018 was solely due to the Super X-Fi too.  Therefore, the probability of that happening and complete the correction of a Double-three zigzag - triangle pattern is very high at the moment.

Another thing that was observed is the volume, high volume was recorded at the node b and d of the triangle while low volume was recorded at the node a and c of the triangle as noted in the chart above.  While there isn't any write out that strongly correlated the volume to the triangle pattern in Elliott Wave, this observation could prove to be a good reference in future if indeed the overall correction conform to Elliott Wave.

A breakout at $6 with high volume could serve as a good reference in the future of an Elliott Wave correction (in particular one with a triangle) while should it fail to materialize it's just one of those case that the stock price performance does not follow Elliott Wave that all.