Showing posts with label Misc. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Misc. Show all posts

Thursday, March 20, 2025

Ichimoku AI Trading System -- Part III

 Continued from Ichimoku AI Trading System -- Part I and Ichimoku AI Trading System -- Part II


Finally, completed a working version of the Ichimoku AI System !!!

Before proceed, let do some clarification, in the previous 2 edition, version 1 and version of the app, that should not be considered anything as AI.  Those should be classified as automation instead.  So, this version 3, IS REALLY AI !!!

What's the difference ?  In automation, we just make use of computation power to fasten the process and in the case of Ichimoku signal detection, it just simply marks out the buy and sell signals based on the rules that we input, the very typical Ichimoku buy and sell signals.  It WILL NOT PREDICT the nature of the signals.  In AI, the story is different.  historical data were fed to the AI model for machine learning, to train it to recognize the pattern as to when and how the buy and sell signals should be generated.  Features, in particular Ichimoku's features (characteristics) were injected along with target (buy and sell conditions) for it to train on the historical data.  Once the model is trained, the real data will feed in for it to predict the buy and sell signals based on what it has learned so far.  The output is probability of buy and sell (and do nothing) signals and based on the probability, we could classify them into Strong Buy, Weak Buy, Strong Sell and Weak Sell signals to further aids our decision of entry and exit.  AI is not supposed to take over the control to make decision for us but assist us only.  This is the correct way to use AI !!!


Now, let see some example what this AI system can do.  We'll looking at STI in the period 1st Jan 2007 to 20th Oct 2007.  This is the period STI on a bull run and finally peak on 12th Oct 2007 then crash all the way down till Mar 2009 due to the US subprime crisis.  We all knew what happened (where the peak and trough is) since it is already an happened event.  However, the data being fed into the AI system is as if it is looking at on 20th Oct 2007.  What the AI model did was being trained on historical data prior to 1st Jan 2007 and do the prediction for 1st Jan 2007 till 20th Oct 2007 based on what it has learnt.



We can see the AI model is able to predict a weak sell signal around the 12th Oct 2007 peak.  Also note the gray shaded region.  This is the region whereby there is no Chikou span signal for the AI model to use on its prediction.  This is mainly Chikou span is a laggard signal, shift backward 26 period.  So the question is did the AI model's decision making being affected given Chikou span is one of the component that indicate bullish (Chikou span above price) or bearish (Chikou span below price).  



The above is the same period as the first figure, the only different is the Risk Level was adjusted (look at the red circle in the top left region).  This is a feature that I put in to the AI system.  Stock market volatility is always changing and it will play a part in the decision on whether one should enter or exit the stock market.  As shown from the above screenshot, there are more weak sell signals leading up the the peak and quite a prominent strong buy signal at the trough before the peak.  These made the AI model prediction looks right on the track.



The above screenshot moved the ending period to 20th Nov 2007 so that the peak on 12th Oct 2007 has moved out of the no Chikou span zone.  This is the see whether now with Chikou span signal being available for the AI mode, will the final decision anything different.  Again, the weak sell signal near the peak remain, so as the strong buy signal at the trough prior to the peak.  Probably, this is just a special case whereby the prediction the AI model made is independent of Chikou span.



We now move to 9 Mar 2009 when STI hit rock bottom and recover from the crisis.  Again, we are trying to see the AI model can predict any buy signal at or near this bottom.  The testing period is from 1st Jan 2008 to 15th Mar 2009.  9th Mar 2009 is now inside the no Chikou span zone.  As we knew whole of 2008 STI was down, down, down all the way and the AI model didn't fail to predict that as all the strong sell signals were flashing along the way.  Now, the AI model didn't manage to predict any buy signal around 9th Mar 2009 maybe due to lack of Chikou span signal.



We now move the period till 31st Mar 2009 so that 9th Mar 2009 is near to come out of the no Chikou span zone.  Walah !!! a strong buy signal pop out.



Above is the period extends till 20th Apr 2009 so that 9th Mar 2009 is totally out of the no Chikou span zone.  This time even better 2 strong buy signals pop out.  While still couldn't be very conclusive did the Chikou span play some parts in the AI model prediction, the assure is the AI model is pretty well able to predict correctly near the trough.


To be able to making good prediction is not good enough if you don't make use of it.  Next, we will be carrying out a little simulation to emulate trading based on the AI predicted buy and sell signals.  This is the part that I've integrated into the app apart from just pure looking at metrics and backtesting results.  



This time we'll looking at 1st Jan 2019 till 31st Dec 2020, the period stock market hit by the unexpected Covid-19 pandemic.  Well, maybe we can predict when financial crisis can happen next but definitely not a natural disaster like pandemic.  This is real test for the capability of the AI prediction.  Looking at the above AI prediction, while the AI didn't predict a buy signal (weak or strong) at the trough, it did manage to predict 2 strong buy signal near the next trough.  Strong sell signals also appear near most of the peak and especially the one just before STI crash to the trough.  This means should anyone follow the AI prediction, should be able to avoid the crash to the bottom.



This is the simulation to simulate buy strategy (only on strong buy signal to enter and strong sell signal to exit) using the above AI prediction.  Can see only 3 trades were performed and all turn out to be winning trade and a realized profit of 15.51% were achieved, annualized to 7.50% return for this period.  This is definitely outperformed than you simply buy on 1st Jan 2019 and hold till 31st Dec 2020 when you only suffered negative return.



The same simulation but this time we changed the buy and sell signal from only strong to both (either strong or weak and we'll enter and exit).  The return is even better with 19.19% profit and annualized return of 9.20% but the win rate dip to 75% only meaning 2 out of 8 trades were cut loss.



Normally, investors don't short the market when it was on a downtrend but traders are different.  The next simulation as above is to simulate how a trader will react to the AI predicted signals, long and short.  Here, we only focus on the strong signal to long or short.  6 trades were done with 3 long and 3 short and all came out winning.  This net a profit of 54.52% or annualized gain of 24.38%.  So this AI system is able to cater for trader as well.



Now, we turn to a more volatile entity, BTC and see how the AI's prediction can benefit our investment or trading.  Above is the AI prediction for BTC from 1st Jan 2024 till 20th Mar 2025 (yes, today !!!!).  Look at the 3 red circles, a very prominent entry and exit point.  For those interested, look at the region near today, no buy signal was predicted so far.



The above is the long only simulation with strong signals for these periods.  Only 3 trades were done and all came out winning.  That gives a realized profit of 124.65%, annualized to 94.81% return.


While this is not the final working version as there are definitely bugs that yet to discover, features need enhancement and fine tuning especially to be more precise how the AI model going to make prediction at the no Chikou span zone, this working version nevertheless is quite impressive to certain aspect.

Perhaps, somewhere at other parts of the earth already have such an AI system, this is definitely something fully developed by me (ccloh) in 2025, fully AI Ichimoku system.  

This I will dedicate (or put it bluntly a pot shot) to SMU for being snobbish to snub me from attending the Ichimoku TA class with my SkillsFuture credit.  Not to mention to Singapore Government of the day -- PAP, another those high nose stance that everything also talk about foreign talent.  Hey, this AI system is fully developed by a local born citizen that serve that bloody 2.5 yrs of NS and went through hell from that pressure cooking education system who is not specialize in programming and only know about AI when I started developing on this.  Whatever certifications that this pseudo elite government that always pride themselves from wearing white cited as requirement,  all I don't have and yet based on my solo effort I develop this AI system !!!






Thursday, February 27, 2025

Ichimoku AI Trading System -- Part II

Continue from Ichimoku AI Trading System -- Part I  


Knowing the limitation of what version 1 can do and adding in those concept that I wanted for the app, enhancement was made and eventually become version 2.  New features for version 2 include having a 3rd option of instead just either perform Long or Short position, it will automatically switch between the two based on requirements or signals were triggered and this is the 3rd option LongShort.  In the metrics showcase, those result from market will be computed so can be used as a comparison of how the strategy perform against the traditional market return (aka buy and hold strategy).  If the strategy can't beat the market performance then it will be useless for this system.  In the backtest result table, position type like Long or Short will be displayed so users can know what type of trade position was entered when using the LongShort option.  In the chart display, "Enter" and "Exit" of position will be displayed on the chart on top of the usual entry and exit trigger signal.  The most important enhancement for this version is none other than having the option to choose which combination set of Ichimoku signals to be used for Enter and Exit of position.  

Ichimoku consists of Tenkan sen, Kijun sen, Senkou Span A, Senkou Span B (which form the cloud Kumo) and Chikou sen.  Different combination of Ichimoku lines use will have different triggering criteria.  Take the case of Tenkan sen crosses the Kijun sen which in normal indicate a buy signal but the position of these 2 lines with respect to the Kumo and also the behaviour of the Chikou sen can differentiate between a true or false buy signals.  Similarly, combinations of the lines being used can be used to determine a true or false sell or stop loss situation.  All these are taken from personal experiences from using the Ichimoku on real market trading and not from the SMU Ichimoku Technical Analysis course.  Remember I was snubbed from the course !!!  Version 1 of the app which can be easily found on the internet only uses 1 combination to swing between buy and sell signals and this is why the performance of it is so-so as detail in Part I.  Same set of equities and trading periods were used for backtesting in version 2 as in version 1 so we can compared the result very clearly.






Above are the Long position for SGDJPY for periods from 1st Jan 2025 to 27th Feb 2025 using different combination of entry and exit signals.  All outperformed the market and those in Version 1 despite during these periods SGDJPY is very bearish (market return is negative) and yet the system still able to achieve position return.




Above are the Short position for the same period and the total return despite all better than market and Long position, different combination of entry and exit signals also account for different return.




Above are using the LongShort option meaning system will automatically switch between Long and Short positions whenever the respective signal is being triggered.  Again different combination of entry and exit signals produce different return.  Without any doubts, the return is much higher than pure Long or Short position as it simply leverage on the market trend benefitting from both up and down of the market.

Now let look at what happen with SIA for the period 1st Jan 2020 to 27th Feb 2025, how Version 2 performs compared with Version 1 and market.







For pure long position, one of the entry and exit combination just fared slightly below market return but the other one beat it, not to mention both perform much better than Version 1.  For longshort position, both combination of entry and exit just outperform market not just slightly but quite a very reasonable margin too.  This is due to the capitalizing of the downturn during the Covid-19 period in take short positions and also along the way with those occasion pull backs.





For STI it is the same case as in SIA whereby certain combination of entry and exit signal will outperform the market in either pure long or longshort position.  Now come the most interesting and shocking part of the backtest even myself almost fell off the chair after looking at the result.  This is the case for Bitcoin.








The first test show the entry and exit combination that performed slightly below market return.  However, when it was switched to another combination of entry and exit, it outperforms market return (3,211.35% vs 1,899.36%, that 69% more).  As we know BTC is very volatile and price swing is wild so the next test is adopting the longshort option to try to take advantage of both the up and down movement of the price.  The first combination of entry and exit is 2,330.49% vs 1,899.36% in term of return, just a mere 22.7% better,  However, when I switched to another combination of entry and exit, the result becomes 10,711.44% vs 1899.36%, that is 463.95% more !!!!.  The final one is another combination of entry and exit.  If the previous test that outperformed 463.95% gave me a shock, this one made me almost fell off the chair.  The return was 144,681.03% vs 1,899.36%, that is 7,517.36% more !!!.  WHAT THE HACK !!!! 

So with the app and after running several backtests, it pretty much confirm to what I have personal experienced and believed that each individual will have a unique combination of entry and exit signals based on the Ichimoku components that suit it best.  The Ichimoku technique is pretty much very versatile in the sense that its several components can act in different combination to produce the trigger signal (buy or sell).  If without this app that I could use the backtest to check it out, I will never know which combination sets of entry and exit work best for that equity.

This is not the final version for this program as there will be an AI integration to it which am currently developing.  Whether the integrated AI features can further improve the performance or not, I believe it doesn't really matter as from those backtest results whatever I am having now is pretty much good already.  The integrated AI is like a challenge to myself now, from an nobody who know very little about AI to get to know what AI can and will do through the concept I have on the program.

So, am I not wrong to say I am very grateful for SMU snobbish act of snubbing me from the Ichimoku Technical Analysis course as without that I wouldn't achieve what I am having now.












Ichimoku AI Trading System -- Part I

What's going to say below all started because of the $500 SkillsFuture credit will expire Dec 2025 (according to latest, for my age group, it will not be expired but any unused will be channeled to the Mid-Career top up).  Well last year, the news of lifting the expiry date for my age group wasn't announced and for goodness shake since it was credited in 2020 I have yet to use a single cent of it.  Don't know what to use on to be exact.  So sensing not to waste that credit before expire, searched through all the courses see any possibility I could use it.  Chanced upon an Ichimoku Technical Analysis course conducted by SMU.  Well not that I'm totally new of using Ichimoku, I did know some knowledge of it and how to utilize it too.  Just that of all those courses, this look interesting that I could just spend the SkillsFuture credit so that it won't expire for nothing.  However, to my shocking, SMU didn't allow me to take the course with reason being I must complete the Basic Technical Analysis course before I could sign up for this.  Can't believe that and I sent email trying to reason with them since I'm not totally novice to technical analysis, I have some decent knowledge of Ichimoku and I can even use Elliott Wave as technical analysis.  Too bad, the reasoning didn't work and I was totally snub off from signing up for the Ichimoku course.  What's the heck !!!!

Then last month when news of Deepseek AI emerged that rocked the world in particular those existing AI developed by US, an idea struck me, inspired by Deepseek AI and still pissed off with SMU snub on the Ichimoku course, I have an idea of developing an AI system that utilize Ichimoku as a trading strategy.  Firstly, I know python programing but not to the mastery stage and I know nothing about developing something relating to AI.  OK you can laugh on me, fine with it !  So searching through the internet and keep on seeking answers from Deepseek, all this is possible and I am able to do it.  

Well, before I get to the point, side track a bit to talk about Deepseek.  As we know Deepseek is developed by China and obviously expecting some bias opinion against it especially from the West.  Not only that, even in Singapore some Chinese Singaporean already hold bias opinion against China in general.  Prior to Deepseek, I use none of AI like ChatGPT.  However, after using Deepseek and made an effort to compare to ChatGPT, I never regret not using ChatGPT.  For the same question that posed to Deepseek and ChatGPT, both give different responses.  Deepseek provides a very detail debating and reasoning type of answer (none of the answer is short and all throw back an essay length) and it just works like how a person is critical thinking of solutions to a problem.  On the other hand, ChatGPT answer is short, no detail debating and reasoning type of explanation like Deepseek.  In short, ChatGPT just spoon feed you with the solution (what's the heck !!!!).  Well maybe the paid version can do what Deepseek is doing but hey Deepseek is free and why should I pay ChatGPT when I can get the same from Deepseek for free ???    

OK, back to the point.  I can't immediately jump in to develop a system that could do all of what I wanted so I have to carry out stage by stage.  First was getting a simple Ichimoku trading system working.  This is not new, can easily find the source code from internet.  So after looking at those source codes, I managed to come out a version 1 of the program.  The method to trigger buy signal is pretty the same from what can be found on the internet, just that I added a possibility of doing a short trade and not to mention a GUI.  After backtesting, the followings are the result.





Above show the backtest result of doing a Long and Short trade on SGDJPY from period 1st Jan 2025 till 27 Feb 2025 using 1 hour interval.  Historical price is downloaded from Yahoo Finance and the trade metrics and detail of each trades are all displayed in the app.






Above are the long and short trades for SIA and STI for the period 1st Jan 2020 till 27 Feb 2025.  Given that involved the Covid-19 pandemic period whereby SIA and STI like other global markets were hit by it.  So testing how the system works from a cash to rebound make sense.




Next, I ran the backtest on BTC for the period from 1st Jan 2020 till 27 Feb 2025 for both the long and short trades given that BTC has broke the US100K mark recently and also to see whether the Ichimoku signals are able to handle the more volatile entity.

Well, I wouldn't say from the backtest result was excellent by looking at the metrics and the generated buy and sell signals from the program.  Nevertheless, this is an important first step that I can develop the system.

Knowing the limitation and problem of the first version that made the result so-so, I further enhanced the program to version 2, which has been completed and the results I can tell you is a big big contrast from version 1 and easily beat market return flat down.  That will be revealed in the next post !!!!

So, I must be very grateful for SMU doing the snobbish act of snubbing me from the Ichimoku course now.  If not, I would not have done what I have done.  Not to mention I saved up the SkillsFuture credit for any future use.




Friday, April 19, 2024

Earned Tesla Motors Fractional Share With Tiger BOSS Debit Card

Tiger Brokers has rolled out a Tiger BOSS Debit Card in February 2024.  It is not just an ordinary debit card though, as you spend with the card, you can actually redeem for Tesla Motors fractional share.  Well this shouldn't be a big news now since the card has been rolled out for 2 months already.  

Why then share such a news ?  Well, am actually managed to redeem some Tesla Motors fractional share.



 

Am not a big and frequent spender so took me a month plus to finally make the first redemption.  How that work ?  Basically, for every $ you spend with the Tiger BOSS Debit card, you earned a 1% of the point.  $1 spend earns 0.01 point.  In order to be able to redeem the Tesla Motors fractional share, you must accumulate 1 point meaning you have to spend $100.  There are some terms and conditions as to what being spend can be counted though.  In general, spending on e-commence platform like Shopee, Lazada or Qoo10 will enable you to qualify for the points.  Another mean is use the Tiger BOSS debit card to pay for payment at fast food chains like McDonald, Burger King, KFC, Subway, etc or doing online ordering from Domino Pizza, Pizza Hut, etc all are able to qualify for the point.  That basically how I accumulate enough to redeem my first Tesla Motors fractional share.


There is a Tiger Brokers referral code below for you to open a Tiger Brokers account, apply for the Tiger BOSS debit card, deposit the money you want to spend to Tiger Brokers account so that you can transfer to the debit card and start spending to redeem the Tesla Motors fractional share. 


 Tiger Brokers Singapore Invitation Code


Tuesday, December 21, 2021

Omicron -- Calm Before Storm ?

After more than half a year the world battling with Delta variant of the Covid-19 and with nations one by one upping the population vaccination rate, the world probably thinking seeing the light of the tunnel already.  Unfortunately, just last month, a piece of news created another shock to the world -- a new variant Omicron was discovered in an infected person on 11th November 2021 in Botswana and 14th November in South Africa.  WHO on 26th November 2021 named this B.1.1.529 variant as Omicron and classified it as a Variant of Concern.  While scientists and researchers still gathering data on this variant in particular how much transmissible and severe relative to the Delta variant, Omicron infected person as of now in general either is asymptomatic or with mild symptoms in a fully vaccinated person.  This has led some experts starting to declare this might be the variant that could end the pandemic.  Are these experts correct ?  If so, why WHO was fast to declare it as Variant of Concern compared to the duration in the past with Alpha, Beta, Gamma and Delta variant.


Presently, the followings are found about the Omicron variant :-

1. Omicron has found to have 50 mutations with 32 in the S gene as compared to between 9 and 13 in the Delta variant.  Higher number of mutations does not necessary translates to be more dangerous but rather it is easier to adapt to the human species by generating another variant.  However, note that it also doesn't mean it will not mutate into another more deadly variant too.

2. There were higher reports of immunity evasion in the Omicron than Delta, meaning it is better at evading the immunity provided by the vaccine than the Delta variant.  In fact,  many of those mutations involve the actual spike protein, which is critical part of the virus that allows it to enter the cells of the human body and make them sick.

3. Omicron can reinfect people who previously being infected and survived by the earlier variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus.  Meaning, this is threatening the naturalized immunity of those previously infected.

4. Scientists at University of Hong Kong reported that Omicron variant multiples about 70 times faster inside the human respiratory tract tissue than the Delta variant.  This study yet to be peer reviewed as of now.

5. UK health officials estimated that within a household, the risk of spreading Omicron variant to another member is three time higher than the Delta variant.

6. As of now 19th Dec 2021, according to WHO, Omicron has been detected in 89 countries with Covid-19 cases involving this variant doubling every 1.5 to 3 days with community transmission and not just infections acquired abroad.


So, is this Omicron be the one that could end the pandemic ?  Whoever that expert suggested afraid have absolutely no data on hand to substantiate given that the world is still collecting data and research on this variant.  This is just a hope, a wish that the SARS-CoV-2 virus behaves like the influenza A/H1N1 virus in the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic that eventually mutates to the common flu virus we are having today.  However, in life science nothing is absolute until scientifically proven.  SARS-CoV-2 and Influenza A are 2 different classes of virus, they could have similar and common characteristics but don't expect they both behave exactly the same.  It is very disappointing and an irresponsible act to see a doctor who have years of experiences in infectious diseases and yet committed such a mistake.  That suggestion, that thought, that statement definitely have influenced certain people mindset towards the Omicron variant.  No need to look far, just see the daily facebook comment section of the ST page (those usual suspects at the usual place) one can easily find day in day out these people just spamming the thoughts that it is of no serious, "endemic" already no fear, Singapore should even open up more for the economy.  These are exactly the Selective Joe which was mentioned in Covid-19, The Long And Winding Road ! -- Part II.  These people with their selective mindsets are not going to help end the pandemic but just prolong it.


Since WHO classified as Variant of Concern on 26th November 2021, data from research were coming in biasing towards the negative aspect instead.  On top of that, vaccine makers like Pfizer and Moderna were fast into developing specific vaccine for Omicron despite claim that a fully vaccinated people with the mRNA together with booster shot still able to prevent severity and death.

So far majority of the reported Omicron infection were on fully vaccinated and even people with booster shot failed to escape from being infected.  The study from Imperial College London dated 17th Dec 2021 revealed that (Omicron largely evades immunity from past infection or two vaccine doses).  UK also reported first death, first confirmed death globally from Omicron on 13th Dec 2021 (refer here).  In UK latest study dated 17th Dec 2021, it was found that there is no evidence that Omicron variant is less severe than Delta (refer here).

In US, Cornell University also suffered a massive Omicron outbreak reporting 903 cases among students from 7 to 13 Dec 2021 with majority of the cases in a fully vaccinated individual.  In fact, nearly 97% of the students in the university are fully vaccinated.  That definitely not a piece of positive news for Omicron variant (refer here).

Other European nations were not spared with Omicron infection too.  Holland went from partial lockdown in 28th November 2021 when Omicron was first announced to the world to a full lockdown from 19th Dec 2021 till 14th Jan 2022.  In the east side of the globe though Omicron infection is still not as massive as the west, countries are tightening their borders and preparing for the worse.

The reaction of vaccine makers toward Omicron also doesn't provide much positive sentiment.  It's almost a hard fact now that the mRNA vaccine which is the highest efficacy among all the vaccines fares worse to the Omicron variant than to the Delta variant.  2 doses protection is almost render to be useless in infection prevention (just look at the Cornell University outbreak).  Vaccine makers are pushing for booster shot and even preparing to roll out an Omicron specific vaccine.  Pfizer CEO already admitted that 4th Covid vaccine doses may be needed sooner than expected due to Omicron (refer here).  Even with booster shot (the 3rd doses), it's still not a guarantee there won't be breakthrough in immunity.  The first local person to be infected with Omicron is a staff working at the Changi Airport who is fully vaccinated with booster shot and yet breakthrough occurred.  This really raised the concern that was highlighted in the previous post of vaccine becoming a double-edged sword, is it becoming a reality now ?


The vaccine becoming a double-edged sword was first raised in Herd Immunity Through Vaccination ? (dated 5th Jun 2021), way way before Omicron variant and just at the massive global outbreak of the Delta variant.  There were already breakthrough cases among the vaccinated with the Delta variant.  The rationale of vaccine becomes a double-edged sword is that the vaccine on one hand is able to prevent severity and death but on the other hand increases the platform and raise the probability of further mutation to either a more contagious or deadly variant.  While there isn't direct evidence Omicron is indeed mutated from a vaccinated person, there isn't direct evidence to conclude it is not too.  One thing is global vaccination rate is definitely higher as of now compared to the time when Delta was first emerged.  In fact, there isn't direct evidence Delta wasn't mutated from vaccinated person too.  For Alpha, Beta and Gamma, that could rule out as then vaccine wasn't available.  However, with the Omicron variant having the ability to evade immunity protection from vaccine, this raise the possibility it is mutated from a vaccinated person.  The basic of life science, living things react to changes for survival.  The virus could be reacting to the antibodies produced by the vaccine that it manages to mutate into another variant to overcome it.  Some might raise the fact that South Africa vaccination is less than 30% thus for that to happen chances are not high.  Chances are not high doesn't mean absolutely no chance or not possible !

There will be people going to deny the vaccine is a double-edged sword despite having no concrete scientific evidence to prove it is not as this is against their narrative.  

The first group shall be the vaccine makers.  For what reason, that is quite obvious and we don't even need to dig into detail about it.

The second group is none other than the government of each of the nations.  They are the one pushing strong and hard on vaccination and even rolled out discrimination measures against the unvaccinated.  Hardly, we see politicians being outright honest to admit mistake.  In fact, the more tyrannical one will just label that as false information or fake news despite not able to prove scientifically it is impossible.

The last group is none other than doctors, experts, specialists and scientists.  Unless they have no greed in title, status, financial power and getting recognition with national awards or a true hard fact throws in front of them, they will just toe the line of the politicians and maintain silence.  Even with a possibility, they don't even dare to raise an alarm.

Some might hard to apprehend why despite fully vaccinated and booster shot still can be infected.  Explaining the scientific way might still unable to understand.  Let put it in a more layman perspective.  Take the example of police and thief as an analogue to the vaccine and the virus.  The thief is the virus.  Each of the many disguises the thief put on to prevent being caught is the variants that were mutated.  The system to catch the thief is the vaccine.  Police is the antibodies that will hunt down the thief.  Police can't hunt the thief down without knowing how he looks like and that is the job of the vaccine.  The vaccine is responsible to research and find out the look of the thief and his many disguises.  With that information, copies of those are handed to the police so that they can hunt him down.  Immunity escape and breakthrough cases represent the thief has managed to disguise into a new look that wasn't inside the database of the police resulting in failure to hunt him down.  Booster shot is just like increasing the number of police say from 100 to 500 to track the thief down.  However, despite the increase in number of police, they still holding the same old database of the thief as before.  This is like riding on the fact that now have more police to raise the probability of hunting the thief down but not acquiring another new disguise of the thief.  As times go by as long as the thief still remain at large, the number of police tracking him down will reduce over times as they are being redeployed to other crimes.  This explains why the effectiveness of the vaccine wanes over times.  Unless the technology in the vaccine is advanced enough to the point that it is able to formulate all the possible disguises of the thief else it will never able to totally prevent infection and transmission. We have heard vaccine makers are developing a specific vaccine for Omicron, this is like adding a new disguise information of the thief to the police so that they can be more accurate in hunting him down.

For those who think they are fully vaccinated and with booster shot, infected with Omicron only resulting in mild symptoms might not be a big deal, they forget that they could be the one that the Omicron will mutate into another worse variant.


If you think vaccine as a double-edged sword is bad enough, there is still an even worse news -- double infection.  Again, this issue was raised in Herd Immunity Through Vaccination ? dated 5th Jun 2021.  Then the question was "what if multiple variants among the 4 (Alpha, Beta, Gamma and Delta) enter the body?"  Those with medical background might say it is rare occurrence.  It might be rare but doesn't mean will not happen.  In fact in early 2021, there was indeed a Belgian elderly died from double infection (refer here).  Now referring to this piece of article, Omicron variant may have picked up a piece of common-cold virus dated 4th Dec 2021.  While the finding didn't present any concrete evidence Omicron was mutated from a double infection, this raise the concern of possibility.  A rare occurrence in scientific perspective is not impossible.  Rare simply means conditions are not all aligned to become a norm.  

According to WHO, prior to Omicron, the Delta variant is responsible for 99% of the Covid-19 cases globally.  Scientists and experts are taking about Omicron going to replace Delta as the new dominant variant and with the state of Omicron infection globally now, it is just a matter of time when that will happen.  To overcome 99% of the infections, there bound to be overlap between the 2 variants.  In so, double infection with Delta and Omicron is not something impossible.  In fact, Moderna chief vaccine maker officer, Dr Paul Burton already sounded this possibility on 14th Dec 2021 (refer here).  The outcome of this double infection might produce another more deadly variant which the vaccine can becomes totally useless in prevent severity and death.


The world is going to vaccinate the children against Covid-19 and with no surprise Singapore Government already gave the green light for those between 5 to 11.  Came across a parent being interview regarding children taking the vaccine, said parent mentioned believe in science so intending to let the children get vaccinated.  This brings a very interesting insight and no am not going to discuss whether should children get vaccinated or not but another aspect.

Believe in science is one thing, understanding science is another.  Should one believe in science but not understand it, science will become a double-edged swordUnderstanding science will allow one to know when to step on the brake and when to full throttle ahead so as not to fallen into the double-edged sword scenario.  Just believe in science and go full throttle ahead is never a wise thing to do.  Now, for that parent who said to believe in science, the natural immune system in our body itself is a science.  It is something that scientists still have lot of unknown about.  If you believe in science, do you believe in the natural immune system that exists in our body for few thousands years already or the vaccine that is still yet to be fully tested for long term side effects ?  Parent should understand science and make the right decision for their children regarding vaccination and not purely based on believing in science or trust in the government.

Nobody in this world can claim to understand science fully as there is still lot of unknown in science to mankind.  Similarly, for infectious diseases experts or doctors despite many decades of experiences in virus modeling, infectious diseases treatment and research still cannot be said to fully understand virus.  However, that should not be an excuse in not understanding science.

If it said how the world ended up with Omicron and not ended the pandemic earlier is due to failure to understand science as one of the reason should be of no surprise.  We already have politicians that demonstrated that.  Gave them the data, they interpreted it like an economist instead of scientist when the pandemic itself is a science.  A brainy human being with economy degree and MBA from prestige university totally defeated by the brainless virus when trying to make the virus followed the narrative.  Doctor, the one who supposed to lead the world out of the pandemic, the one who supposed to understand science more in depth than most people can fail too.  Why ?

A doctor turned politician surrendered his rights to understand science

A doctor endorsed vaccination discrimination gave up his rights to understand science

A doctor placed title, status, financial power, awards ahead of everything never understand science

A doctor treating human life as digit and statistics doesn't deserve to understand science

A doctor who doesn't understand science is nothing but a quack doctor


Many are looking to the next mutation to end the pandemic after the Delta variant.  They are not wrong but will it be this Omicron variant or the next one ?  The general belief is a variant which is less contagious and is this the only way ?  On the contrary, the next mutation to a more deadly variant would be a better candidate to really end the pandemic.  Why ?  As deadly as it is meaning vaccine is totally useless to prevent severity and death.  It is then people will start to be more aggressive in testing, quarantine and isolating to break the chain of transmission.  In addition, deadly variant means it will kill the host before it could transmit to another which further help to break the chain of transmission.    

If vaccine is not a double-edged sword for the Omicron, the next mutation will surely be given that the global vaccination rate will be even higher with children coming in couple with  those booster shots.


Added 27th Dec 2021

came across report saying South Africa is giving up contract tracing on Omicron infection as it believed almost the whole population has been infected.  To many on the surface this might be implying South Africa is rising the white flag but should anyone observes comments and views from inside South Africa will be a totally different story.  Omicron was first discovered in South Africa and spread rapidly to rest of the world with the west side of the globe falling one by one like a domino.  However, most forget one fact about South Africa.

South Africa till today is only having about 25% of its population fully vaccinated.  Alarmly, it has over 70% of its population being infected by the SARS-CoV-2 virus and its variants.  That is to say, at least 90% of the population has that immunity to the virus inside their body either due to the vaccine or the naturalized one from previous infection.  Death and hospitalization rate for South Africa still remain low unlike those in the west of the globe seeing recording breaking cases and threatening the healthcare system.  Another interesting fact is South Africans practically not wearing mask, doing social distancing and so forth of those pandemic restriction.  In fact, majority of the population also not bothering to get vaccinating despite the push from the government.

Now, look at Israel, the government is pushing for 4th dose despite having like slightly over 90% of the population being vaccinated.  Like the west of the globe nations, Israel is getting massive hit by Omicron too.  With over 90% of the population fully vaccinated, mask wearing and social distancing restriction still on to cope with Omicron, it is a total contrast to South Africa.  Israel, a nation who like many others including Singapore is trying to vaccinate the population out of the pandemic while South Africa is a nation that majority of  the population is having the naturalized immunity instead of from the vaccine, are performing totally differently at the moment.

Should South Africa ends the pandemic before any other countries, this will be a tight slap and wake up call to the rest of the world who try to vaccinate the population out of the pandemic.  This of course is not a piece of good news for the vaccine makers and even political leaders who all along keep pushing for vaccine mandate.  Question is will any scientists, researchers and experts willing to do a thorough investigation into it, South Africa vs Israel and not afraid to publish the truth ?   Should that be the truth, any political leaders dare to admit their mistake in pushing restlessly for the vaccine when it does really serve the purpose ?  For sure, Singapore political leaders will not admit the mistake as they never have the courage to admit own mistakes, in the past, present and future.


Omicron, the variant to end the pandemic ?  Probably not going to happen to those nations who just trying to vaccinate the population out of it.


Singapore Covid-19


柏杨写了一本丑陋的中国人,Covid-19却写了一篇丑陋的新加坡人


打油诗

主将无能垮三军
左士缺策只砸钱
右士辱人自被辱
左象无计只会泣
右象理人理出祸
左马略识色不分
右马讲据终慢拍
小卒仗权乱闹事
大敌当前夸本领
火烧眉头方才悟
城门紧闭称闭窗
高傲自大多借口
知错不认真懦夫


主动是它的名字
领导者最佳战友
为何小红点缺乏
是否无勇气拥有
是否缺远见拥有
是否不知怎拥有
还是不想去拥有

Saturday, October 23, 2021

Covid-19, The Long And Winding Road ! -- Part II

Continued from Covid-19, The Long And Winding Road ! -- Part I


This installment shall continued with the groups after The Government and The Doctor that helped steering Singapore Covid-19 pandemic situation into "the long and winding road" path.


The Journalists

Singapore's journalism is a monopolize business, with one and only one newspaper publishing company (referring to both offline and online press) it can't help but to say there isn't much alternative views from journalists.  In fact in 2021, Singapore's ranking in World Press Freedom has dropped to an all time low of 160 out of 180.  No prize will be rewarded if the ranking shall continue to drop in the future.  With globally fighting against fake news, rationally the nation press should and would be the most reliable source of information for anyone to turn to.  Coupling with the low World Press Freedom ranking, one no need a rocket science brain will know how easily it can be manipulated to serve one's propaganda.  Failing to provide unbiased, objective but instead lopsided views, opinions, reports and analysis will have quite a substantial impact on the path in which Singapore Covid-19 has chosen in the pandemic.  Ask anyone on the street about the nation press, the words or phrases "biased", "lopsided" and "government controlled" would be the most common answers you can get.   

Since the start of the pandemic last year till present, rarely found a coverage, views, opinions and reports that were not in line with the Government's narrative.  Even at times doubts and uncertainty arose, they failed to exercise their rights as a journalists to raise the issue.  

"Do not wear mask if one is not sick" and "it is not worse than SARS" were the 2 prominent examples in the early phase of the pandemic last year.  With little known of the virus, the Government and experts view on the above were largely published without questioning.  Now, both of those were totally wrong.  The early warning sign (seriousness of the virus) from China's Government action of locking down Wuhan city and Hubei province also failed to prompt them to raise the concern was the Government's action not proactive enough at that time.

When the Government adopted the mRNA vaccine in the nation vaccination programme, from then on reports, news and opinions from vaccine were mostly lopsided in favor of the mRNA vaccine.  Publishing news on both the mRNA and non mRNA vaccines were nothing but following a designated template.  For the mRNA vaccine, positive news were fast and prompt to put it up so as the negative news on the non mRNA.  As for the negative and positive news on the mRNA and non mRNA vaccines respectively, it will be either slowed or totally ignored.

Personal opinions from the journalist were rarely opposite of the Government's narrative.  Take the case of vaccination in the time when the Government was pushing to get more people vaccinated.  A lighting quick opinion of why not make the vaccine compulsory was put up.  With the fact that the vaccine still not largely tested of any possible long term side effects, even scientists couldn't even put their neck down the chopping board to claim a negative ascertain, this type of message contributes nothing constructive as a whole.   

When the Government kept on flip flopping on its measures, the journalists at best were to look up the so-called experts that only serve to defense the actions but were never question was there something wrong in the decision making.  Average Joe on the street can even tell something wrong with the decision and yet they couldn't ?

Even as of present when daily infected number hitting more than 3000 cases with death being reported almost everyday despite having a population rate of more than 80% vaccinated (one of the highest in the world at the moment), healthcare system feeling the stress and yet all they could do is just to initiate a support campaign for the overworked healthcare workers.  With clear cut evidence that the system has led to the status of the healthcare system, they surrender their rights to question the Government.    

Given the benefit of doubts there are still journalists who posses the right work ethic, this pandemic definitely brings out the black sheep in the industry.  These selective few (in particular health correspondents) with obvious not being objective and unbiased are none other than politically poisoned -- past, present, future.  These impacts if said don't help Singapore Covid-19 situation moving into the "long and winding road" path is unbelievable.

握笔如持剑,文字极尖锐
挥之讨公正,出于圣心也
生怀邪念者,执意助政治


The Influencers

This group of people usually characterized by their status (very commonly self-proclaimed success), wealth (mostly well off), education background (mostly highly educated from well known university) and their circle of network.  They could be politician, direct connect of politician, businessman, professional or even celebrity.  They are at best ride on their social influences to propagate the Government's propaganda or rebut any negatives of the Government.  Smartly and skilfully crafted message with selective data and information dug out from the internet was used to support the fact is the norm for them.  With the vast social network they have, these messages can be relaid by their followers from one to another through social media in the shortest possible of times and thus achieving their objective.  

Take the case of the vaccine.  With the government adopted the mRNA vaccine, they were quick to dig out data comparing the effectiveness and efficacy between the mRNA and the non mRNA vaccine.  They however, omitted the fact that the trial population (gender, age group, background of the person, etc) were not the same and there is no common basis to make a conclusive comparison.  When the mRNA vaccine was found to be ineffective in preventing infection, they quickly changed the focus to still able to prevent severity.  In fact, at that point of time the non mRNA vaccine was the most administrated globally and hardly any concrete data to demonstrate those can't prevent severity.  When data showed that the effectiveness of the mRNA vaccine waned till 40% after 6 months, vaccine maker pushing for booster shot and those non mRNA vaccine was in not such a good position anymore, they found no way to hot sell the story anymore.

Prior to the delta variant hitting Singapore, citizens urged the government to shut the border to high risk nation in particular India when it was being hit by the variant massively, the government deflected to Singapore cannot shut all borders forever.  These influencers again quick to the block echoing the government's view.  They could even brilliantly explained how closing borders could affect the economy when the fact was Singapore just need to shut the border to the high risk nations.  Moreover, with their education background and work experiences, they are all capable of contributing solutions to close the border to high risk nations without completely hurting the economy.  Economy is not controlled by a binary switch which can only be opened or closed.  There are ways, policies and measures to cautiously open and close without to the extreme.  Neither any of these influencers bother to contribute any solutions when they clearly know that.

When the pandemic situation in Singapore took a turn to the wrong side, they will just dig out statistic of those countries that did even poorly than Singapore to justify the Government is still doing a good job.  For countries (or places) that fare better than Singapore (China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, New Zealand, Australia, etc), those statistic will never appear in their book.

When the mediocre doctor and expert started to labeled unvaccinated elderly being selfish and hostage to the population, these influencers were at their act again.  This time a celebrity just single out these elderly without even bother to find out the true reason for them not taking the vaccine.  Some could be due to underlying medical conditions which disallow them to do so, some were adverse of the side effects and awaiting for a safer vaccine, which you can't fault them.  Perhaps, a small faction is truly what they've described.  However, that doesn't warrant these influencers to 一竹竿打翻一船人.  Now, with daily death of infected elderly regardless of vaccination status lately,  can you still claim these unvaxx elderly being selfish and as a hostage to others ?

With globally recommending booster shot for those vulnerable, am waiting for these influencers to surface to hot sell the idea again.  However, they forget that booster shot just increase the quantity of the antibodies and not improving the quality of the vaccine.  Few months later unless the virus has lose its contagiousness, the booster shot effect again will wane off and another booster shot will be called for.

These influencers more often being caught start counting the chicken before they are being hatched.  For them, the philosophical of psychology "when thou manipulate the psychology of others to achieve thine objective, they will get back to thee eventually" will apply.  That's the law of nature !


The Selective Joe

The Selective Joe are mostly the average people on the street.  They can be easily spotted at the Facebook comment section of The Strait Times page and online forums.  Sometime, they will also appear in the Strait Times forum section.  Their understanding, reasoning, analyzing and logic always fall only to the level of what they want to believe in.  They refuse to move beyond that as it will totally contradict their belief.

Take the case of the effectiveness and efficacy of the mRNA vaccine.  When concrete data suggested that the vaccine can't totally prevent infection and transmission, despite knowing the effect wane to as low as 40% after 6 months, they will just dig out data and charts to show the death rate is still lower with the vaccine to convince doubters about the usefulness of the vaccine.  Their level of analyzing and logic will just stop there.  They refuse to think beyond that with more of the population being infected and seeking medical attention, the healthcare system can become overload and indirectly causing more fatality.  A typical trademark for this group is they will just use simple and short sentence like "go read up" to silent the doubters.  Do they themselves really fully understand the subject is largely questionable.

To the topics that the nation must open up the borders and not closed for economic reason, they just aligned their belief perfectly with the government.  They could talk in such arrogance way to those suggesting temporary lockdown to contain the infection that these people don't really understand the economic impact of such an action.  They could even bring out quotes from those influencers to support their claim without even bother to understand are those correct rationally.  In actual fact, afraid, they are the one themselves who don't really understand.  Opening and closing of an economy is not a binary switch which you can either open or close only.  Policies, measures, methods or strategies can be tailored to either biased toward more economic benefits or prioritize citizens' life instead and at the same time keep the economy running.  Just look at Hong Kong, having the same open economy model as Singapore, they are able to control the domestic cases very well and still get the economy running.

When others criticized or complained about the flip flopping, start-stop measures of the government, they will jump into the defence of the government with this type of trademark -- "as if you can do a better job".  However, they forget nothing is perfect, even government can make mistake.  If the people in the government doesn't have the solution doesn't mean no other people or other group can't have.  Won't be surprised they are the actual one without any solutions.

When the government and experts started to zero in on the unvaccinated including discriminating measures in the name of protecting them, they will join in in support of it without even bother to question is that the correct way.  Again their typical trademark of short and simple sentence -- "it is to protect the unvaccinated".

When the government decided on the "endemic" route and despite the start-stop measures we've observed lately, these people will jump in to urge the government to have that iron fist in them to carry on and not flip flopping.  They will never question are those actions really the correct one.  Should those are the wrong one keep pushing ahead will do more damage instead.   

These people very often repeat or quote from the government or the influencers to justify they are standing in the correct side but forever never question is that the correct one.  They are the one that keep supporting and cheering on the government to carry on in the "long and winding road" path regretfully.


The Final Thoughts

The nation now is experiencing daily death of elderly regardless of vaccination status.  Though majority of them have underlying medical conditions which in a way lead to the death but that shouldn't use as an excuse.  If the pandemic was controlled appropriately not to the extend of getting more 3000 cases daily, these elderly might still have some more years to live by.  These elderly are not just any tom, dick and harry.  They are the one born in the 30s and 40s that worked hard, put their trust and faith in LKY and his peers to build up the nation to what it is today.  If you asked them has the LKY led system ever fail them, they might have a few complains here and there due to the sometimes hash policies by LKY but they can still proudly tell you the answer is ZERO.  Now, coming from the same political party, this is the first and also the last time (for those who have passed away) that the system fails them.  Those born in the 50s to 70s should know as these elderly are their parents who everyday went to work before sunrise and only came home after sunset.  They rarely have a day rest or times to spend with their children and now it is the actions of these people that fail them.  They worked their blood and sweat out in their younger days so that the future generation can have a better life but just to see :-

The million-dollar ministers who can afford to pay up in full cash a condominium for their children while ordinary people have to service a 30-years mortgage fail them with the system

The expert who own a clinic of his own labeled them selfish if they refused to be vaccinated

The foreign expert who since day 1 yet to give some good advices singled out them as being hostage to others if they refused to be vaccinated

The doctor in the medical school who feel like in cloud nine when students greet him as professor suggesting refusing to pay for the treatment cost should they are unvaccinated

The doctors that choose to be mediocre only know how to show data in defence of the government's action but never grow the backbone to speak up even if the healthcare system is inching toward breaking point

The politically poisoned journalist totally surrender the rights to question the system that fail them

The self proclaimed successful influencers did nothing constructive but just start counting the chicken before they are hatched

The selective joe who live in comfort like a pseudo rich only know how to point finger at them as if they are the sole cause of the present situation

The discriminating measures in the name of protecting them were put on them should they chose not to be vaccinated

The death of these elderly, do these people have any 恻隐之心 to feel sorry and responsible for it or the life of these elderly is just a statistic ?


The nation has the choice to either walk the "long and straight path" or  the "long and winding road" in this Covid-19 pandemic after containing the foreign worker dormitory outbreak last year.  The over-confident, incompetent and mistakenly taking the vaccine as the light to end it guided the nation into the "long and winding road" instead.  

The "long and straight path" is not something impossible or difficult to achieve, all it needs is patience and cautions at every little steps.  Managed and contained the domestic cases well to the extend the people could live with just a little restriction like mask wearing only to enable the domestic economy running.  With the domestic economy as a cushion, the nation can then take a small step to open up the economy, wait for stabilization then open up a bit more.  This is to ensure that if the timing for that small little step is wrong, swift actions should be able to prevent another uncontrollable outbreak.  Don't even need to resort to discriminating measures at all.  The "long and winding road" on the contrary did more damage as the flip-flop, start-stop measures only made the people confuse, made the businesses difficult to plan ahead to survive.

Courage is needed to make the correct choice.  This is not just ordinary courage but the 大勇 in 儒学之勇.  With this, one is not afraid to admit the mistakes instead of making excuse for it.  With this, one is not afraid to backtrack if something goes wrong instead of keep bulldozing ahead hoping it will turn out right eventually.  We have quite a few of the 1st generation leaders having it, we still can find a few in the 2nd generation of the leaders.  Come the 3rd generation of leaders, after searching high and low, regrettably we can't find any.  This proves that 大勇 cannot be inherited.  Now, for the 4th generation of leaders, you jolly well spend those times in more productive things than trying to find it on them.  大勇 they don't have, 小勇 they have plenty and that explained why instead of admitting to the mistakes, they just blame everything under the sun except themselves for it.

Be it the "long and winding road" or the "long and straight path", given times, the whole pandemic will eventually come to a stop, seeing the light at the end of the tunnel but the underlying shall be different.  In the "long and straight path", we overcome the virus with our actions and determinations.  As for the "long and winding road", the virus runs its full course until its 3 stages (entry, genome replication, exit) cannot prolong any more when it has infected most of the population, run out of hosts to carry on as the naturalized immunity gained from the population forming the barrier.  This is exactly what happened in the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic.  The medically trained doctors should know but do they dare to single out  so as to risk jeopardize the chance of getting a national award for toeing the line with the government ?

Do think twice at the end of the pandemic when the government trying to claim credit for it.  Is it their actions that lead to it or is it the brainless virus that defeats the one with the brain that has a degree in economy and MBA from prestige university ?  


柏杨写了一本丑陋的中国人,Covid-19却写了一篇丑陋的新加坡人


The above was written in Covid-19, An Opportunity To .............., dated 15th Apr 2020.  

The initial underestimate and self praised of being well prepared for the pandemic

The oversight of the foreign workers' dormitory outbreak instead used hindsight as an excuse for it

The data oriented to the extend of lacking the instinct to be proactive in slowing to close border to high risk nations

The over-confident on the vaccine in believing in herd immunity but ended the vaccine effect can only last 6 months and herd immunity is an impossible

Gave them the data but interpret like an economists when the pandemic is clearly a science

The self-belief of "endemic" but ended up with all the flip flopping and start-stop measures

When things go against them, put the blame on the unvaccinated  instead

Discriminating measures just to pile up pressure on the population to get vaccinated to achieve their target but in reality vaccinated can't stop the transmission

Continue the discriminating measures further when things don't go along with their narrative

Mediocre experts that since day 1 yet to put up some good advices for the pandemic and yet believe they are not wrong

Doctors and healthcare workers inching toward healthcare system breaking point don't even have the backbone to question the system but instead blame the population for it

Journalists give up their rights and chose the path to be politically poisoned

The nonconstructive influencers only know how to add support to the government even if it is moving towards the wrong direction

The blinded selective joe just refuse to fault the government and instead blame everything under the sun

With all these people, how is it not true the above statement on 丑陋的新加坡人.


the Wong, the Ong, the Gan, the Lee, the Chan, the Yong

the Fisher, the Leong, the Mak, the Cook, the Lye, the Ooi

the Salma, the Fernandez

the Ho, the Em Lee

the Jerome, the Akmal, the Meng Tat, the 秋燕, the Lisa, the Lilian, the Kwok Weng, the Maydeline, and so forth

History will never forget and forgive these people !


Singapore Covid-19


打油诗

主将无能垮三军
左士缺策只砸钱
右士辱人自被辱
左象无计只会泣
右象理人理出祸
左马略识色不分
右马讲据终慢拍
小卒仗权乱闹事
大敌当前夸本领
火烧眉头方才悟
城门紧闭称闭窗
高傲自大多借口
知错不认真懦夫


主动是它的名字
领导者最佳战友
为何小红点缺乏
是否无勇气拥有
是否缺远见拥有
是否不知怎拥有
还是不想去拥有