Wednesday, April 15, 2020

Covid-19, An Opportunity To .............

Covid-19, an opportunity to GAIN from stock market.  I believe most would have said that but how many actually realize it is also a very good opportunity to LEARN !

Opportunity To Gain
Don't think that needed much elaboration as crisis regardless of its nature is always short term.  In the process stock prices will be battled down to many consider as cheap bargain and with a long time frame, picking up those cheap bargain especially stocks with good fundamental will more or less warrant a profit in the future.  Another way is the short term gain when taking out short positions during the crisis.

Opportunity To Learn
You can only learn when there is a mistake, wrong decision, bad timing or inappropriate action.  Thus, putting on a rational and logic hat to do a microscopic examination is the only way to dig out all those.  The Covid-19 virus outbreak since catching the limelight in mid Jan 2020 till now despite the crisis is still ongoing raise couple of questionable decisions and actions both domestically and globally.

1. Communication

道者,令民与上同意也,故可以与之死,可以与之生,而不畏危也

The above is from 孙子兵法第一篇 -- 计篇.  Its literally means both the emperor and the people must have the same view and belief so that in war time, the people is willing to die for the emperor without having a second thought.  To achieve that, effective communication is the only way without any doubts.  Effective communication meaning clear, detail, no confusion, no uncertain, no contradiction, no assumption of the other party know of type of communication.  Couple of events that had happened so far really raise the question of whether was there any "effective communication" from the people who manage the crisis to the people of the nation.

After CNY break there was a period when people were trying to buy surgical mask to protect themselves from the Covid-19.  Island wide all people could face with was mask being sold out.  The Government came in to claim there was no shortage of mask.  That was a clear contradiction of what was being said and what was being observed on the ground.  In fact, it is now a known fact that there is shortage of surgical mask globally.  How can Singapore not facing shortage of surgical mask ?

"Do not wear mask if you are not sick".  Everybody should familiar with that message now.  That was the message in the early phase of Covid-19 in Singapore.  The effectiveness of mask to prevent virus spreading was very much divided in the medical domain compared with the unanimously advice that maintaining good individual hygiene is the best effort for prevention.  However, the later message wasn't strictly emphasize on during that phase but rather focusing on the mask instead.  Just check out how many days in a row that The Straits Times published the mask message rather than the later.  Shouldn't the most appropriate advice be the later ?  Where is the spirit of journalism ?  This type of uncertain information should be avoided from the perspective of effective communication.

"Do not use this if you are well"
"Do not use this if you are well as we might have insufficient for those who really in need for it"
It should be very obvious the above 2 sentences carry different meaning despite the first part being actually the same, word for word.  The first message was printed on the pack of 4 masks given to each household by the Government.  Whoever read that sentence will only conclude that "do not wear a mask if you are not sick".  However, if the message the Government is trying to convey to the people is actually the second message then there definitely isn't any clarity and detail from the way communication is being conducted.  Not something to be considered as effective communication.

Singapore Government raise its DORSCON level to orange on 7th Feb 2020.  Within the next 2 days people (not majority though) went around stockpiling in fear and panic of shortage of food and essential supply.  How many people actually know the meaning of the different DORSCON levels and how one should react to it ?  The DORSCON level was raise when Singapore has 33 confirmed Covid-19 cases then as compared to now more than 3000 cases.  If 33 can warrant a DORSCON orange then, what is more than 3000 cases (plus a "lockdown" enforcement) warrants ?


Above is the DOSCON alert levels description from MOH.  Based on the current situation we are in now with work from home, schools closed, non essential service providers all have to cease operation for the time being and not to mention the latest that it is mandatory to wear mask in outdoor, that fit the DORSCON Red level criteria but yet as of now the status still Orange.  Am sure majority of the people will be head scratching and puzzling on this DORSCON thing.  Singapore has been through 2003 SARS and whatever measures and actions carry out now are practically a guideline to that.  However, one can't just simply make the assumption that everyone will know what to expect and how to react this time round.  Should everyone know of, the scene of fear and panic stockpiling should not have happened.  Making assumption of what others know of is never allow in effective communication.

WHO has recently upgraded its advice that wearing mask is better than not for Covid-19.  Following that, Singapore Government immediately changed its stance on wearing mask to encourage.  However, the story didn't stop there.  Within the next few days, the advice has kept changing from encourage to mandatory in certain areas (markets, shopping malls, public transport) to the latest as long as one is out of the house, the mask must be worn.  Failing to do so will result in breaking the law, $300 fine for first time offenders.  This type of keep changing advice or measures can only lead to unnecessary confusion to the people.  Another of the must not do thing for effective communication.

孙子, a person who lived few thousands years ago in the days when there wasn't any electricity and not to mention advanced technology like PC and smartphone realized the importance of effective communication.  Yet, the modern people of today who has all the advanced technology and highly likely earn many more times salary than him fail to see that.

2. Complacency
Complacency is never the doubt mother of all failure.  This is actually a psychological aspect and it is a fact that lost the psychological battle, half the war is lost.  Given how Covid-19 has developed into now with more than 1.8M confirm cases and death toll of more than 110,000 globally as of 14th Apr 2020 from WHO situation report, a figure that way way exceed that of the 2003 SARS.  To rule out there isn't any element of complacency in play earlier on is very unconvincing.

China decided to lockdown Wuhan city and Hubei province just before CNY to curb spreading and it took WHO a week later to decide it is a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) level.  Then wait till March, 2 months after China initiated the lockdown to eventually upgraded to Pandemic status.  With the nature of the coronvirus still unknown, no vaccination, cases surged rapidly and the only reference was 2003 SARS despite being not totally the same, there is lack of proactive action not just WHO but globally too except a selective few nations.  Though the world has been through and experienced SARS that doesn't mean we could take it lightly and assume it should be the same.  That is element of complacency.

Wuhan has a population of 11M (almost 2x that of Singapore) and Hubei province 58M (10x that of Singapore).  For China to initiate the lockdown something they didn't do during 2003 SARS is already giving a strong signal that this Covid-19 is of severe seriousness.  Most of the nations except Hong Kong and Taiwan did not enforce tough measures of prevention then.  These nations might claim they are just following the guideline set by WHO but that doesn't mean they cannot take their own initiative especially when talking about protecting the lives of their own citizens.

Singapore after 2003 SARS has established a system including contract tracing and infrastructure in place for another virus outbreak.  That framework mostly focus on tracing and singling out the source fast to contain the spread.  However,  any good risk management should know that prevention is always the first especially about life and death.  Any slip through then comes the containment.  Having too much faith in believing containment is the best solution to curb the spreading can easily develop into complacency in no time. 

The Straits Times has interviewed and shared a so-called "expert" on his view on Covid-19 in the earlier part.  Said expert claimed that Covid-19 was not worse than SARS as the fatality rate was much lower (10% of SARS vs 4% of Covid-19).  SARS data could not be changed as it is already history but Covid-19 still ongoing and what said expert has on hand probably just the data from China or part of Asia only.  The data at that time might suggest fatality rate as 4% but as of now with more than 110,000 death troll vs more than 1.8M confirm cases, the fatality rate stands at 6%+.  It could continue to rise going forward.  With accuracy still a big question on the data in the early phase, to claim not worse than SARS if it is not complacency then what can it be ?  Note, global death toll for SARS was below 1000 but Covid-19 is now more than 110x that.  Not worse than ?

"We are well prepared for it"
"We are prepared for it but we still have to take it seriously"
The underlying about the 2 sentences is the same -- prepared for it but it has totally different meaning and psychological effect.  Some might say the first sentence suggests strong confidence.  I do not disagree BUT to be on the confidence side it will mean one actually expect how the outcome of it will be.  In the case of Covid-19, this could be the duration of the crisis, the eventual outcome (worse or better than SARS).  Failure in that is just pure complacency.  Confidence and complacency is just a fine line dividing the two.  Looking at how things have developed in Singapore so far, there isn't any strong evidence to suggest it is the confidence case.  If the Government has expected it can develop into what of today, shouldn't they enforce tough measures earlier on so that the situation won't end up as what we are now ?  The second sentence on the other hand rules out element of complacency.  We are prepared for any virus outbreak as we have been through one (2003 SARS) but we are treating it as a new, never happened before crisis and tackle it seriously.  Which case we are in from Singapore Government ?  I believe majority of us already knew the answer.

"To live through a crisis"
"To experience and learn through a crisis"
Both sentences suggest the same thing that is gone through the crisis but they actually different in psychological aspect.  The second doesn't consist any element of complacency while the first has a high potential to fall into one.  The first case is more like going through the crisis in a passenger role resulting in developing into lack of awareness, alertness and the complacency in thinking that this time round it will be the same as previous.  On the other hand for the second case is remembered all the mistakes, learned from those and ensure won't make the same mistakes again.   Majority of the population has gone through 2003 SARS without a doubt but how many actually belong to the 2nd description ?  Take the case of the Jurong SAFRA cluster.  Those few hundreds of people based on their age should have gone through the 2003 SARS.  Despite that, they still make the mistake of gathering in huge number in a confined space during the virus outbreak period.  Which sentence describes them ?  Not a finger pointing or blaming game here but seriously hope that with the Covid-19 they could belong to the 2nd description if they are not eventually.  In fact not just them but everybody should.

WHO has praised and labeled Singapore contract tracking system as a gold standard for other nations to follow.  Said news was immediately published by the local press.  One can easily find those usual suspects always hoarding in the comment and forum section of the local press firing in all the praises as if Singapore has emerged victory in the virus outbreak.  Never heard of the saying "Don't start counting the chicken before they are hatched" ?  Look not just Singapore but globally is in the middle of a war combating the Covid-19, with no vaccination in sight and uncertain when the crisis will end this is not the time to start singing praises.  This type of mindset can easily walk into complacency.

3. Self Critical
Self critical is not an easy thing to do but is also an essential thing if one really want to learn from mistakes.  Forever pushing the blames to others, giving thousand and one reasons and excuses to justify one is not in the wrong is definitely not a self critical act.

From no wearing mask if one is not sick to now mandatory must wear mask when in outdoor, there is a change in stance.  Instead of being self critical to admit it was wrong advice initially, all we could hear was we are just following the guideline from WHO.

Comparing with Hong Kong and Taiwan, Singapore did not take on tough measures in the earlier stage and now we are facing the situation whereby both Hong Kong and Taiwan are doing better than we are in containing the virus outbreak.  While one might not want to praise them for their proactive measures (probably due to pride and self esteem), we cannot deny the fact it is very valuable to learn from them.  Yet till now, Singapore Government hasn't shown any self critical to admit Singapore should follow what both Hong Kong and Taiwan did at first.  Instead thousand and one reasons were given why we acted this and not that.

Singapore can be what it is today was due to the first generation of leaders being very self critical of themselves thus keep on improving Singapore.  Many of the second generation of leaders still have that quality in them as Singapore continued to do well.  For the third generation of leaders it became only selective few still have it.  Unfortunately, for the fourth generation of leaders this has became "do they still have it ?" despite all along they are from the same political party.

Self critical requires the conscience and courage (not just ordinary courage but 儒学之勇的大勇) to admit one wrong doing.  Inability to do that practically just kill off the chance to learn from mistakes.

For every cause there will be a consequence, for every consequence there must be a cause.  How can when things go wrong it is not the responsibility of the crisis management team ?

4. Miscellaneous
These are actually collective of events or actions that came across but finding hard to group them into appropriate subject.  All these are of great learning values as they totally signify the negative attitude and mindset one should not have.

Shameful act of scolding and mocking of others behind close door.
Don't think I need to give detail of what that is about and if you still don't get it is hard to believe you are a Singaporean.  That act is unacceptable and at the same time without any apology is really shameful.

What has the oppositions done during this Covid-19 crisis ?
This is an intellectual deficiency type of comment.  Needless to say it came from supporters of the ruling party.  Some said it anonymously in social media and surprisingly this also came from a financial blogger.  Why intellectual deficiency ?  Well the oppositions are not the Government of the day, neither do they have any authority to pass any bill in parliament to combat the crisis nor the power to gazette any infrastructure to be use in the crisis.  Of course they have done nothing.  While we are asked to unite and fight Covid-19 together, these people on the other hand are dividing the nation.

Pouring scorn on Hong Kong and Taiwan tough measures in combating Covid-19
It is a fact now that both Hong Kong and Taiwan have done better than Singapore in containing the spreading of Covid-19 with their implementation of tough measures in the early phase of the crisis.  Instead of learning from them, certain group of people (even with high status, wealth and power) in social media are just pouring scorn on them.  Why ?  Maybe due to high pride and self esteem they cannot take it others are doing better than them.

General Election
Nobody except the Government will know when to call for a General Election which was supposed to be held before April 2021.  This has became a temporary hot topic in middle of March 2020 soon after the Electoral Boundaries Review Committee released its report.  Suddenly, you can see political parties including the ruling party doing walkabout with potential new candidates amid the virus outbreak still ongoing.  This type of activity in no way is helping to contain the spreading of the virus.  Setting a deadline of October 2020, 6-month before April 2021 then to decide when to hold an election.  Thus,  from now till then everyone are focus and together in fighting the Covid-19.  Shouldn't that be the most appropriate way in handling a General Election ?  Singapore Government always pride themselves for the efficiency so it is impossible to unable in setting up the necessary infrastructure and logistic for election within 6 months time frame.  Putting the interest of the nation first or politics first ?

Massive outbreak in foreign worker dormitory
These few days there was massive outbreak of infected cases in foreign worker dormitory.  This incident exposes the living condition these foreign workers are in.  If not for Covid-19 most probably still in the dark what these foreign workers have gone through.  What make it even more disgusting is in social media there were group of people saying it was the fault of the foreign workers themselves that lead to the massive infection.


Covid-19 has given us a very good learning opportunity BUT at the same time it also exposes the ugly side of the nation.

柏杨写了一本丑陋的中国人,Covid-19却写了一篇丑陋的新加坡人

As a local born Singaporean meaning on the same footing as others I am also considered one of the 丑陋的新加坡人.  However, in order not to be one, I would value this Covid-19 crisis as an opportunity to learn.


This will always remind me not to be a 丑陋的新加坡人



An additional footnote, admitting to incorrect and wrong decision and not to mention apologizing only after the Covid-19 crisis or only doing it during General Election fits exactly into the description of 丑陋的新加坡人.