Monday, December 31, 2012

Strategic Investor 2012 Review

FTSE STI ended the year 2012 at 3,167.08, up 19.68% for the year.  Here is the review of my performance as a Strategic Investor for 2012 in term of investing and trading.

From the perspective of fundamental investing, in end of 2011 Portfolio stood at +39.14% (inclusive of dividend return) and at the end of 2012 Portfolio stood at +68.67% (inclusive of dividend return).  Hence, for the year of 2012, Portfolio variant of +29.53% while STI variant of +19.68% (not inclusive of dividend return, should it be included it will not be over +25%).  Of the 10 stocks in the Portfolio, only Genting SP suffered a negative return for 2012 (-8.28%) exclusive of dividend.  The best performer stock in the portfolio is Cambridge Industrial Trust, getting a +42.11% exclusive of dividend.  The performance for rest of the stocks with exclusive of dividend return are :-

CapitaMall Trust (+25.29%), First REIT (+39.47%), KepCorp (+18.28%), SIA (+5.81%), SingPost (+22.99%), MapletreeInd (+26.51%), SembMar (+16.96%) and CapMallA3.8%b220112 (+3.6%). 

The surprise for 2012 was Cambridge Industrial Trust, a stock in which since the 2008 financial crisis has been in the red (exclusive of dividend return) and 2012 finally saw the share price rose above my holding price to get the capital appreciation.  The factor was due to company finally getting their act together to improve the fundamental of the company and at the same time the sentiment of chasing for high-yield stocks in 2012 gave it another push up in the price.  However, SIA is the only 1 stock in the portfolio that its share price still below my holding price (-11.16%) mainly due to the weakness in global aviation sector.

Below is a tabulation of the annualized return (inclusive of dividend return) for each of the stocks in the Portfolio with reference to their respective holding periods and an average annualized return for the total Portfolio.

StockHolding Periods (Yrs)Unrealized Profit/Loss (Inclusive Dividend)Annualized Unrealized Profit/Loss
Cambridge Industrial Trust6+32.56%+5.43%
CapitaMall Trust4+111.76%+27.94%
First REIT7+110.23%+15.75%
Genting SP7+160.07%+22.87%

In general, it was neither a set of poor result nor very good result, at least to certain extent outperform STI and on average managed to produce an annualized return of at least 10%.

In term of trading, 2012 was not a bad year but also not an extremely good year either.  Daily volume has been thin throughout the year and with the reduced minimum bid size since 2011, doing contra trading was not easy.  Absolutely profit wise could not be compared with 2009 and 2010.  However, since mid 2011 onwards, I have switched trading strategy to cater for the reduced minimum bid size and also move away from doing Technical Analysis based of trading.  Instead, my approach was Analytical based of trading according to important events for the year.  The new approach did bear some fruits as couple of trading records were broken.

Hit a new and break a third best record in the Top 3 Best Performance category
1. Achieved 29 consecutive contra gain from 26 trading days, 25th July 2012 - 1st September 2012
2. Achieved 22 consecutive contra gain from 15 trading days, 20th November 2012 - 10th December 2012.

Hit a series of good monthly hit rate for the Top 3 Monthly Best Performance category. 
1. 100% Hit Rate, August 2012
2. 93.33% Hit Rate, June 2012
3. 92.59% Hit Rate, April 2012

In term of annual performance, achieved a hit rate of 82.79% better than that in 2011 (73.45%)

My tradings were all based on contra trading, time is the most restrictive factor in which I have to time my entry level very well to avoid unnecessary risk.  The timing factor is also the main cause for any loss for the trades.  Hence, for 2012, there was a month in February which I suffered a small little nett loss for the month as compared with rest of the months all resulted in nett profit.  There were also 3 months in a row from October to December in which I have to spend most of the days to recover from a nett loss to a nett profit month.

Quality and not quantity trading is the key to 2012.

1 comment:

  1. Hopefully 2013 will be a better year for the euro zone. The emerging market economies are now really important to world economic health much more so than before.