Wednesday, February 28, 2018

STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (VI)

Continued from previous analysis, STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (V)

Firstly, I have to rule out the possibility of a flat and triangle correction in the previous analysis.  This means for this Minor degree Elliott Wave correction it will be a simple zigzag, a combination still possible with the first pattern of a zigzag and lastly a double zigzag pattern.  However, for the latter two, I can see low possibility of happening simply because the time frame would be over stretched for those to happen given that it is a Minor degree Elliott Wave.  Ruling out flat and triangle pattern is because I did not see a 3-wave down from the drop of 3611 in January to 3377 in February and if that drop is the just half of the wave W (flat) or wave A (triangle) then the time frame will be over stretched for it to play out the whole pattern.  Note both flat and triangle correction have 3-3-5 and 3-3-3-3-3 pattern respectively.  From the peak of 3611 till now I can see a 5-3 pattern which fit into the 5-3-5 pattern of a simple zigzag.  The following chart illustrates this point.



The 5-3-5 structure is the Minutes degree of the Elliott Wave, a degree lower than the Minor degree.  The daily volatility can create some noises (I refer those as Gaussian Noise) that distort the count.  As such, I have to ignore some of the turning points in counting i, ii, iii, iv, v, a, b, c and regard those as Gaussian Noise.

Secondly, the classic textbook scenario for the simple zigzag in previous analysis didn't materialize as wave B landed around the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.  This should not affect the fact that STI is experiencing the Wave C for this correction (Wave 2 of Intermediate degree) now given today drop.  This Wave C should enact out as a 5-wave down -- i, ii, iii, iv, v in the Minutes degree.  Wave C sub-wave i (the drop today) should complete in a day or 2 times follows by a rebound in sub-wave ii.

In term of Minutes degree it is still too early to calculate the ending point based on Fibonacci ratio as sub-wave ii yet to play out.  The analysis from Intermediate degree Elliott Wave (refer here) still remain valid for the time being.

At the end of this correction shall be the Intermediate degree wave 3, the steepest climb of the whole Elliott Wave cycle since 2009.  Minor degree Wave C, Minutes degree wave v will be the region to get for the last time to play out the remaining of the Elliott Wave cycle since 2009.

In the above, it was mentioned 2 other cases -- double zigzag and combination with zigzag as first combination, still possible to play out for this correction but I will not get into detail as presently, there isn't any strong evidence those will be played out.

Added 1st March 2018 :-

Minor wave A took 12 days to form, Minor wave B took 10 days.  Since Minor wave C should be longer than both hence technically it will take at least 12 days to form.  Looking at the time frame that will bring it to at least middle of this month.  As such initial estimate either middle of this month or the 3rd week of this month or latest by end of this month (hmm...quarterly window dressing and US Fed FOMC meeting) should see the end of this correction (Minor wave C of Intermediate wave 2 of Primary wave 3).  Unless some external factors play out to distort that pattern if not next stop will be the steepest climb of this Elliott Wave cycle



No comments:

Post a Comment