Looking at the way STI has developed since the peak in late January till now, I sense there is something wrong in my previous analysis since then till now. Have to backtrack and go back to basic to find out where things start to go wrong.
So far, STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ?, STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (II) and STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (III) have been correct as none of the Elliott Wave rules have been broken. That is to say STI has completed Primary degree wave 1 and 2 and now in wave 3 since the low in 2009. However, in going down a sub-level into the Intermediate degree of Primary wave 3, there is where the analysis starts to get wrong. In STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (IV) I have concluded that Primary wave 3 Intermediate wave 1 has completed at the peak in January 2018 and now STI is experiencing Primary wave 3 Intermediate wave 2, the corrective wave.
From the above chart, the confirmation of end of Primary wave 3 Intermediate wave (1) CAN ONLY be confirmed when it breakdown at that trendline. This is something that I have overlooked. It did touch with its recent drop to 3,377 on 9th February 2018 but rebounded instead of further breaking down. As in a proper correction case, the trendline will serve as a resistance rather than a support on a rebound. This is not the case so far as STI progresses. Hence, the wave count in the Intermediate degree level could be wrong. The correction that sent STI down to 3,377 should be for the mini Elliott Wave cycle (of much lower degree than Intermediate degree or even lower than Minor degree) marked in the yellow region in the above chart.
Going back to the basic to recount and add in various trendlines to help clearly identified the sub (or sub sub ) levels of Elliott Wave, the scenario that Intermediate wave 1 still on going looks very highly possible now. There is still some other possibilities but I have more doubts about those. I will not be listing out those here for the time being but keep in mind in case they turn out to be true.
The peak of 3,610 in January 2018 belongs to the Minutes degree wave i of Minor degree wave 5 of Intermediate degree wave 1. In this case, STI still have Minutes wave iii (wave ii was completed in the recent drop to 3,377), wave iv and wave v to go before we can see the end of Minor wave 5 and start of Intermediate wave 2. Hence, STI still have more upside to go. This scenario should be able to further confirm when the recent peak of 3,610 is broken AND there is a breakdown in the green (Minor degree) and purple (Minutes degree) trendline further on. Under this scenario, STI will see a "deep" correction with respect to the bottom in April 2016, typically 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. There is also a plus point under this scenario that is upon completion of Primary wave 3 STI will be a level high enough to break the 2007 peak and when Primary wave 4 kicks in, the pull back (be it 38.2% or 61.8%) will be still above 3,530 so that it will not overlap into Primary wave 1 -- a rule for Elliott Wave.
However, if there is a sudden breakdown on both the green and purple trendlines before breaking the 3,610 then the above scenario will be invalidated and the other possibilities will be played out.
Note :-
The previous analysis in concluding 3,610 is the end of Intermediate wave 1 was like a Test Balloons for me in forcing the play out to my intention without carefully looking into all the confirmations. I have to honest and admit this mistake instead of making monkeys, donkeys and baboons excuses or means to cover up the mistake. Only by doing so then I can learn from my mistake and make improvement on my future analysis.
Going back to the basic to recount and add in various trendlines to help clearly identified the sub (or sub sub ) levels of Elliott Wave, the scenario that Intermediate wave 1 still on going looks very highly possible now. There is still some other possibilities but I have more doubts about those. I will not be listing out those here for the time being but keep in mind in case they turn out to be true.
However, if there is a sudden breakdown on both the green and purple trendlines before breaking the 3,610 then the above scenario will be invalidated and the other possibilities will be played out.
Note :-
The previous analysis in concluding 3,610 is the end of Intermediate wave 1 was like a Test Balloons for me in forcing the play out to my intention without carefully looking into all the confirmations. I have to honest and admit this mistake instead of making monkeys, donkeys and baboons excuses or means to cover up the mistake. Only by doing so then I can learn from my mistake and make improvement on my future analysis.
