Swiber -- 4th Aug 08

Swiber closed $1.93 on 1st Aug 08 after a sharp drop in price on 30th Jul 08 from $2.03, probably due to the sharp drop in crude oil price. It even hit an intra-day low of $1.86 on that day and re-test its March low of $1.87. The drop to this level has already anticipated from my previous analysis on Swiber due to the breakdown of the neckline of a head-should formation which happened during late Jun 08. At $1.86/$1.87 it is more or less the calculated the breakdown price and the objective of the breakdown potentially was achieved and thus providing short-term of support. Technically, none of the indicators showed sign of recovering in short-term. Even though MACD histogram is still at the positive region but the MACD signal is deep in the negative region. Both RSI and Stochastics are in the oversold region. Stochastic however cut up and potentially there could be a short-term oversold rebound with immediate resistance at the 14d EMA level of $2.03. If the $1.86/$1.87 is unable to provide support, the downside risk will be falling to $1.60 level ( Jun 07 low level ). Swiber is expecting to report its earning on 13th Aug 08 and from now till then Swiber could be in a consolidation phase with price level sandwich between $1.86 - $2.03 level. A set of good result should allow Swiber to overcome the resistance at $2.03 and head towards the 50d EMA level at $2.30. If the earning shows very negative result then potentially it will drop to $1.60 level. At current price level of $1.93, with upside of $2.30 and downside of $1.60, the reward/risk ratio is 1.12 ( 0.37/0.33 ).