- 29th Jul 08, Consumer Confidence came in 51.9 better than market expectation of 50.0 and previous value of 50.4.
- 31st Jul 08, GDP ( 2Q08, 1st revision ) reported 1.9% below market consensus of 2.4% but better than previous quarter reading of 0.9%.
- 31st Jul 08, Jobless Claims reported 448K with market expecting 398K and previous value was 406K.
- 1st Aug 08, Employment Situation saw a declined of 51,000 with previous value of a drop of 62,000 and this was better than what market was expecting of decline of 72,000. Unemployment however rose to 5.7% as compared with previous reading of 5.5% and market consensus was only 5.6%.
- 1st Aug 08, Construction Spending was flat at -0.4% matched market expectation and previous value.
- 1st Aug 08, ISM Mfg Index came in at 50.0 slightly below previous value of 50.2 but beating market consensus of 49.2
- 4th Aug 08, Personal Income/Outlays, Factory Orders
- 5th Aug 08, ISM Non-Mfg Survey, FOMC Announcement
- 7th Aug 08, BOE Announcement, ECB Announcement, Jobless Claims, Pending Home Sales, Consumer Credit
- 8th Aug 08, Productivity and Costs
It will be another volatile week ahead with market is focus on economic data, health of finance sector, crude oil price and US Federal Reserve meeting on its Fed Fund rate on 5th Aug 08. With crude oil price fell from its recent high of US$147/barrel, curbing slightly on the inflation, US Federal Reserve which majority believe will be put on hold the interest rate.
Technically, DJI still have yet to breakout from its downtrend with its MACD still in negative region. However both RSI and Stochastic were above the 50% level indicating some strength in sustaining the market level, immediate downside will be at the 11,000 level. If there is any rally due to market welcome the decision on US Federal Reserve in putting the interest rate on hold, the upside could be capped at the 100d EMA level of 12,000 to 12,100 level.
Nasdaq showed relatively more strength than DJI. Its MACD is edging towards the zero line, RSI is above the 50% level and showed no sign of cutting down yet. Stochastic signal has not cut down and it has moved up to around the 80% level. Its immediate resistance will be at its 50d EMA level of 2330. If the outcome of the US Federal Reserve on the interest rate is of positive news to the market, potentially it can rally to hit the 100d EMA level at 2340 and might even test the 2400 level. The downside for the moment is the 2300 level, it that can't hold, next level of support will at around the 2250 level which it has tested for twice since recovered from the dip to below 2200 level.
S&P500 is the weakest among the 3 US markets, mainly because it houses all the financial stocks and any bad news to the finance sector will see it experiences great selling pressure. Its inability to test the 1300 level after the recovery from the 1200 level is worried for some. MACD still in negative region, RSI just lying flat above the 50% level and Stochastic even though is above the 50% level but starting to show sign of cutting down. The candlestick formation also favour a downside in short-term than any upside. The immediate resistance would be the 1300 level ( also around the 50d EMA level ). If the US Federal Reserve decision on the interest rate is of positive news to the market, potentially this could be tested. Meanwhile any downside is around 1230 whereby it has tested twice since the recovery from 1200 level.
