Nasdaq closed 1,647.40 for the week ended 7th Nov 08, down 73.55 points or 4.27% from previous week.
S&P500 closed 930.99 for the week ended 7th Nov 08, down 37.76 points or 3.90% from previous week.
Crude oil price finished the week at US$61.33/barrel as compared with previous week of US$67.48/barrel.
A recap of last week economic data/event is as followed.
- 3rd Nov 08, ISM Mfg Index reported 38.9, market consensus 41.5, previous value 43.5.
- 3rd Nov 08, Construction Spending came in -0.3%, market expecting -0.8%, previous value 0.0%.
- 5th Nov 08, ADP Employment reported -157,000, previous value -8,000.
- 5th Nov 08, ISM Non-Mfg Index came in 44.4, market consensus 47.5, previous value 50.2.
- 6th Nov 08, BOE and ECB cut interest rate by 1.5% and 0.5% to 3.0% and 3.25% respectively.
- 6th Nov 08, Jobless Claims reported 481K, market expecting 480K, previous value 479K.
- 6th Nov 08, Productivity and Costs came in 1.1% and 3.6% respectively, market consensus 0.8% and 2.8% respectively, previous value 4.3% and -0.5% respectively.
- 7th Nov 08, Nonfarm payroll came in -240,000, market expecting -200,000, previous value -159,000. Unemployment rate came in 6.5%, market expecting 6.3%, previous value 6.1%.
- 7th Nov 08, Pending Home Sales reported 89.2, market consensus 90.6, previous value 93.4.
- 13th Nov 08, International Trade, Jobless Claims
- 14th Nov 08, Retail Sales, Import/Export Prices, Consumer Sentiment, Business Inventories
Technically, long term trend is still a down for DJI. Now even the short-term is like falling also. DI+ and DI- still negatively spaced, a failure to cross over even with the US Presidential Election rally. DI+ has fallen below 20. MACD signals look toppish, met with resistance and could be turning down any moment. MACD histogram is showing sign of retreating towards the zero line. RSI failed to hit the 70% even with the rally and now cut below 50% level. Stochastic signals hit the 80% resistance level and cut down to 50% level already. All the signals are suggesting DJI could be moving down in short-term. Immediate resistance around 9,600 failed to break with the rally and support could be at 7,800 level.
For Nasdaq, the long term trend is till down and the short-term showing signs of turning down also. DI+ failed to cross over DI- in the recent rally and now they moved further apart with DI- moving up towards 40 level. MACD histogram starting to move down towards zero line and MACD signals showing toppish also. Short-term wise, Nasdaq looks like hitting resistance level. RSI retreat from 50% level and heading towards 30% level indicating near term pulling back. Stochastic failing to break the 80% level, cut down and fell to 50% level. Current resistance is at around the 1,800 level with support around the 1,500 level.
S&P500 long term trend is down and short-term trend starting to turn down also. DI+ failed to cross over to DI- in the recent rally and the spacing get widen also. MACD histogram is moving down towards the zero line and MACD signals showing toppish signals, indicating near term hitting resistance level. RSI after crossing the 50% level failed to hit the 70% level and now drop back down to below the 50% level. Stochastic signals after hitting the 80% level cut down and now fell back to 50% level. All these indicating short-term downside is more than upside. Current resistance is around the 1,000 level and support at around the 850 level.
US markets as what most expected rallied up prior to the US Presidential despite some bad economic data and corporate earnings along the way. Eventually Democrat Barack Obama won the seat to become the 44th President of United State and also re-wrote history as being the first black president. Markets soon retreated back with an almost 10% drop in 2 sessions after the election as people started to shift their focus back to the fundamental of the economy. US unemployment rate also hit a high of 6.5% with ADP employment report indicating more than expected jobs were lost in October. Despite a positive closed on Last Friday, it was still not enough to recover what has loss during that 2 sessions and US markets ended the week lower than the previous.
For the coming week, technically US markets might be on a short-term pull back after the recent rally and from fundamental point of view, there isn't any changed to the economy front that indicating recovery is on the way. Investors will be focusing on what measures the new president will install to save the ailing economy and also what other economic data or events that could signal when is the bottom of the whole financial crisis. Markets will be volatile again.
