Nasdaq closed 1,384.35 for the week ended 21st Nov 08, down 132.50 points or 8.74% from previous week.
S&P500 closed 800.03 for the week ended 21st Nov 08, down 73.26 points or 8.39% from previous week.
Crude oil price finished the week at US$51.25/barrel as compared with previous week of US$56.45/barrel.
A recap of last week economic data/event is as followed.
- 17th Nov 08, Empire State Mfg Survey reported -25.4, market consensus -26.0, previous value -24.60.
- 17th Nov 08, Industrial Production came in 1.3%, market expecting 0.2%, previous value -2.8%.
- 18th Nov 08, PPI reported -2.8%, market expecting -1.7%, previous value -0.4%
- 18th Nov 08, Housing Market Index came in 9 with previous value of 14.
- 19th Nov 08, CPI reported -1.0%, market consensus -0.7%, previous value 0.0%.
- 19th Nov 08, Housing Starts came in 0.791M, market expecting 0.780M, previous value 0.817M.
- 20th Nov 08, Jobless Claims reported 542K, market consensus 505K, previous value 516K.
- 24th Nov 08, Existing Home Sales
- 25th Nov 08, GDP, Consumer Confidence
- 26th Nov 08, Durable Goods Orders, Personal Income/Outlays, Jobless Claims, Consumer Sentiment, New Home Sales
US markets were under selling pressure since start of the week even breaking the intra-day low occurred in 10th Oct 08 with bad news from no bailout for the 3 automakers at the moment, Citigroup retrenching 52,000 job globally, crude oil price slided below US$50/barrel, FOMC minutes cited fear of US in recession next year and bad economic data. It only till Friday US markets did an intra-day reversal in reaction to President-elect Barack Obama naming Timothy Geithner as Treasury Secretary and Lawerence Summers to direct the National Economic Conucil. There was also unconfirmed news that Hilary Clinton will be named the Secretary of State.
Technically, long term trend for DJI is still down and short-term possible a oversold rebound coming the way. The RSI and Stochastic signals have turned up after last Friday reversal indicating possible short-term rebound. DJI needs to be able to hold above 8,000 level in order to have more upside for the rebound which probably capped at the 9,600 level. On the cautious side, MACD signals still yet to cut up and MACD histogram still in the negative region. The DIs still negatively spaced and the DI+ is sliding down instead of turning up. This is a worrying sign that the coming rebound might lack the strength. Another worrying sign was DJI did a lower low for past weeks. The immediate support for DJI would be around the 7,500 level.
Long term trend for Nasdaq is still down. Short-term wise, might have a rebound as suggested by the RSI and Stochastic indicators as both of them are cutting up. However, MACD and ADX don't suggest so. MACD signals yet to cut up and MACD histogram still in the negative region. DIs still negatively placed and DI+ is sliding further down instead of trying to moving up. 10th Oct 08 intra-day low was broken and Nasdaq showed a lower low trend for past weeks. The rebound might lack the strength to carry the Nasdaq to the toppish resistance level of around 1,700. Current immediate support would be around the 1,300 level.
S&P500 long term trend is still down. Like DJI and Nasdaq, the RSI and Stochastic might suggest a possible short-term rebound but the ADX and MACD indicators show the rebound lacking in strength. MACD signals yet to cut up and MACD histogram still in negative region. DIs still negatively spaced and DI+ is sliding further down instead of moving up. The 10th Oct 08 intra-day low was broken and a lower low trend was observed instead. If the rebound has the strength, the toppish resistance would be the 1,000 level and at the moment, support for S&P500 would be at the 700 level.
For the coming week, the fate of the 3 automakers and Citigroup would be in the spotlight. A couple of heavy economic data also appears like GDP number, New/Existing Home Sales, Personal Income/Outlays, etc. These data will give an even more detail state of the US economy. Note also US markets will be on a short trading week due to thanksgiving day on 27th Nov 08. Investors might choose to sell on strength to lock in some profit and stay sideline for the thanksgiving day. Some good news over the weekend was President-elect Barack Obama has outline creating 2.5M new jobs by 2011 to stabilize the ailing economy. This might bring some cheers to Wall Streets after stock prices have fallen more than 10% for past 2 weeks. Nevertheless, still a volatile week ahead for US markets.
