Nasdaq closed 1,540.72 for the week ended 12th Dec 08, up 31.41 points or 2.08% from previous week.
S&P500 closed 879.73 for the week ended 12th Dec 08, 3.66 points or 0.42% from previous week.
Crude oil price finished the week at US$46.58/barrel as compared with previous week of US$42.93/barrel.
US markets started on a high note for the week on hope of the automaker bailout deal would be passed and on President-elect Barack Obama planning to launch the biggest infrastructure program to save its ailing economy. However, as the week went by, poor economic data and news of bailout deal might hit road block soon dampen the market sentiment. The US$14b automaker bailout deal did pass the House of Representative round but failed to pass at the US Senate level. This caused market to pull back in the later part of the week.
A recap of last week US economic data/event is as followed.
- 9th Dec 08, Pending Home Sales reported 88.9, market expecting 86.5 with previous value 89.2.
- 11th Dec 08, International Trade came in -US$57.2b, market consensus -US$53.5b, previous value -US$56.5b.
- 11th Dec 08, Import Prices reported -6.7%, market expecting -4.7%, previous value -4.7%. Export Prices reported -3.2% with previous value -1.9%.
- 11th Dec 08, Jobless Claims came in 573K, consensus 525K, previous value 509K.
- 12th Dec 08, PPI reported -2.2%, market expecting -2.0%, previous value -2.8%.
- 12th Dec 08, Retail Sales came in -1.8%, consensus -1.9%, previous value -2.8%.
- 12th Dec 08, Consumer Sentiment reported 59.1, consensus 55.0, previous value 55.3.
- 15th Dec 08, Empire State Mfg Survey, Industrial Production, Housing Market Index
- 16th Dec 08, CPI, Housing Starts, FOMC Announcement
- 18th Dec 08, Jobless Claims
Technically, DJI long term trend appears to be turning into flattish from down. Short-term wise based on the several indicators might have some pull back in the coming week. RSI and Stochastic have cut down suggesting retreating. DI pair still negatively spaced implies near term strong rally up is pretty much limited but with ADX signal falling, the short-term pull back could lack strength and hence well supported. MACD signals still in convergence mode and inching towards the zero line with MACD histogram still in the positive region. This could indicate any near time selling could be well contained. The support at the moment is around the 8,100 level with immediate resistance at the 9,650 level. A breakout from the 9,650 level could see it retests around the 11,000 level. A breakdown at 8,100 level could see it going down to test the 7,400 level.
Technically, Nasdaq long term trend appears to turn flattish from down and short-term wise might see some pulling back based on the several indicators. RSI showing sign of cutting down and Stochastic has already cut down. DI pair still negatively spaced but with ADX signal falling towards the 20, the retreat might lack the strength and should be well supported. MACD signals still in convergence mode and inching towards the zero line and with the MACD histogram still in the positive region, any downside should be limited to the support level at 1,400. Any upside also capped at around the 1,800 level. A breakout from the 1,800 level could see it retest around the 1,900 level and a breakdown at the 1,400 level shall retest the 1,300 level.
Like DJI and Nasdaq, S&P500 long term trend appears to turn flattish from down but short-term trend might see some pulling back. RSI and Stochastic have already cut down indicating short-term retreat. While the DI pair still negatively spaced, the ADX signal is falling to the 20 level hence indicating the short-term pull back might lack the strength and should be well supported. MACD signals still in convergence mode, inching towards the zero line and with MACD histogram still in the positive region, the short-term downside could be limited to the support area at the 810 level. Any upside at the moment could be capped at the 1,000 level. A breakdown at the 810 level will see the S&P500 retests the 740 level and a breakout from the 1,000 level should see it moves up to test the 1,150 level.
The US Senate stalled the automaker bailout deal last Thursday and while markets subjected to selling pressure in the Friday session, news that White House might come in to tap the US$700b meant for financial sector to aid the automakers. This news reversed the direction in the late Friday session. The coming week, market will be looking for more confirmation on whether White House will come into the rescue and at the same time continue to monitor the economic data to access the ailing economy situation in US. Furthermore, US Federal Reserve is expecting to cut interest rate by another 0.5% to 0.5% on 16th Dec 08. Market might see some volatile movement prior to these events.
