Nasdaq closed 1,509.31 for the week ended 5th Dec 08, down 26.26 points or 1.71% from previous week.
S&P500 closed 876.07 for the week ended 5th Dec 08, down 20.17 points or 2.25% from previous week.
Crude oil price finished the week at US$42.93/barrel as compared with previous week of US$56.41/barrel.
After last November Thanksgiving and end of the month window dressing, US markets retreated since the start of the week with investors switched their attention back to the economic data and the automakers bailout. In the beginning of the week, report that said US was already in recession as early as Dec 07 sent the US markets plunged and even though later part of the week rebound still not enough to negate the damage.
A recap of last week US economic data/event is as followed.
- 1st Dec 08, ISM Mfg Index reported 3.62, market consensus 38.4, previous reading 38.9.
- 1st Dec 08, Construction Spending came in -1.2%, market expecting -0.9%, previous value -0.3%.
- 2nd Dec 08, Motor Vehicle Sales came in 7.6M, consensus 7.8M, previous reading 7.7M.
- 3rd Dec 08, Productivity reported 1.3%, consensus 0.9%, previous value 1.1%. Labor Cost reported 2.8%, consensus 3.6%, previous value 3.6%.
- 3rd Dec 08, ISM Non-Mfg Index came in 37.3, expecting 43.0, previous value 44.4.
- 4th Dec 08, BOE cut interest rate by 100bp to 2.0%, ECB cut interest rate by 75bp to 2.5%.
- 4th Dec 08, Jobless Claims reported 509K, market expecting 529K, previous value 529K.
- 5th Dec 08, Nonfarm Payroll reported -533,000, consensus -300,000, previous value -240,000. Unemployment rate reported 6.7%, consensus 6.7%, previous 6.5%.
- 9th Dec 08, Pending Home Sales
- 11th Dec 08, International Trade, Import/Export Prices, Jobless Claims
- 12th Dec 08, PPI, Retail Sales, Consumer Sentiment
Technically, DJI long term trend is still down, short-term wise, it is on an up trend. RSI and Stochastic signals are both climbing up indicating short-term upside. MACD signals still in convergence mode with MACD histogram still in the positive region. However, the MACD signals still lying in the negative region hence possible capping any upside. The DI pair is still negatively spaced, suggesting strong upside is not feasible. DJI appears to trading in the channel as show with upside caps around the 9,200 level and downside at the 7,260 level. There is also another view that DJI is doing a inverse head-shoulder formation and if so breakout, it will really rally hard.
Technically, Nasdaq long term trend is still down. Short-term wise might see uptrend as suggested by RSI and Stochastic signals whereby both are moving up. MACD histogram still in positive region and with MACD signals still in convergence mode suggesting short-term upside. However, as the MACD signals still in the negative region, upside would be capped. The DI pair still negatively spaced and show no sign of crossover hence indicating upside will be met with resistance around the 1,600 level. Nasdaq appears to be trading in a channel with upside caps at 1,600 and downside at 1,230 level. There is also another view that Nasdaq is doing a inverse head-shoulder formation and if so breakout, it will really rally hard.
Technically, S&P500 long term trend is still down. Short-term trend is an up suggested by the RSI and Stochastic indicators; both are moving up. The DI pair still negatively placed suggesting upside is pretty much capped and with S&P500 appears to be trading in a channel, the upside could be capped at 940 level and downside 710 level. There is also another view that S&P500 is doing a inverse head-shoulder formation and if so breakout, it will really rally hard.
For the coming week, main focus will be on the bailout of the 3 automakers after their respective CEOs made presentation to US Congress last week on the amount required and the importance of the bailout. A bankruptry of one of the 3 automakers could send US unemployment rate soaring to as high as 9%. There are also several economic data to be look out for the coming week. Note also crude oil price has fallen to near US$40/barrel and this could affect commodity and offshore/marine stocks.
