Monday, January 5, 2009

US Market Analysis -- 5th Jan 09

DJI closed 9,034.69 for the week ended 2nd Jan 09, up 519.14 points or 6.10% from previous week.
Nasdaq closed 1,632.21 for the week ended 2nd Jan 09, up 101.97 points or 6.66% from previous week.
S&P500 closed 931.80 for the week ended 2nd Jan 09, up 59.00 points or 6.76% from previous week.
Crude oil price finished the week at US$46.52/barrel as compared with previous week of US$37.90/barrel.

For last week of 2008, US markets firmly moving up each day despite bad economic data as investors were looking forwards to 22nd Jan 09 when Barack Obama officially becomes US President and carried out his recovery plan for the ailing US economy. Furthermore, the 3 automakers have eventually got the bailout they desperately required to prevent from bankruptcy. US markets also ended in a high note for the 1st trading day of 2009; a very positive sign for most.

A recap of last week US economic data/event is as followed.
  1. 30th Dec 08, Consumer Confidence reported 38.0, consensus 45.0, previous value 44.90.
  2. 31st Dec 08, Jobless Claims came in 492K, market expecting 550K, previous value 586K.
  3. 2nd Jan 09, ISM Mfg Index reported 32.4, consensus 35.5, previous value 36.2.
Economic data/events for the coming week is as followed
  1. 5th Jan 09, Motor Vehicle Sales, Construction Spending
  2. 6th Jan09, Factory Orders, ISM Non-Mfg Index, Pending Home Sales, FOMC Minutes
  3. 8th Jan 09, BOE Announcement, Jobless Claims, Consumer Credit
  4. 9th Jan 09, Employment Situation

Technically, DJI long term trend still yet to turn up while short-term trend is bias towards the upside. DI+ cut up DI- suggesting short-term positive upside but ADX signal still at 20 level indicating a lacking of strong momentum for the upside. MACD, RSI and Stochastic indicators all showing positive upside for the short-term. DJI currently is at the 9,000 level; a resistance for past sessions. If it can turn the 9,000 level from resistance to support, further upside would be at around the 9,680 level. Meanwhile, support is at the 8,130 level.


Technically, Nasdaq long term trend still yet to turn positive whereas short-term wise it is bias towards the upside. DI+ cut up DI- suggesting short-term upside but as ADX signal still at 20 level, this could indicate the upside lacking of strong momentum. MACD, RSI and Stochastic indicators all showing positive upside for short-term. Nasdaq is curretly at the 1,600 level; a resistance from previous sessions and if it could turn from resistance to support, the next upside could be at around the 1,800 level. Meanwhile, support is at 1,400 level.


Technically, like DJI and Nasdaq, S&P500 long term trend still yet to turn positive but short-term trend is bias towards the upside. DI+ cut up DI- suggesting short-term upside is in place but with ADX signal still at the 20 level, this indicates the upside is lacking a strong momentum. MACD, RSI and Stochastic indicators all showing short-term upside. S&P500 is now at the 920 level; a resistance for past sessions and if it could turn it into a support level, the next upside would be at the 1,000 level. Meanwhile, the support is at 820 level.


For the coming week, investors are looking for sign of capricorn effect, the traditional new year rally. With important events like Barack Obama officially becomes President, US Federal Reserve starting to buy into company bad debts and possible more bailout along the way, the month of January should be firm for US markets. Most believe US markets is bias towards upside more than downside for this month.