Nasdaq closed 1,534.36 for the week ended 13th Feb 09, down 57.35 points or 3.60% from previous week.
S&P500 closed 826.84 for the week ended 13th Feb 09, down 41.76 points or 4.81% from previous week.
Crude oil price finished the week at US$38.01/barrel as compared with previous week of US$40.04/barrel.
US markets started on a high note on US Senate approved of the Obama's stimulus bill. However, that sentiment soon disappeared when Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner's outline of financial stability plan was not welcome by investors as it lacked details of what they wanted to hear of. Thereafter markets were on a selling mode until a last minute reversal on 12th Feb 09 when there was talk about US Government planned to do a mortage rescue for home loan. On the economic data, there were still mixture of good and bad economic data.
A recap of last week US economic data/event is as followed.
- 11th Feb 09, International Trade reported -US$39.9b, consensus -US$36.0b and previous value -US$40.4b.
- 12th Feb 09, Retail Sales came in 1.0%, market expecting -0.8%, previous value -2.7%.
- 12th Feb 09, Jobless Claims reported 623K, consensus 610K and previous value 626K.
- 13th Feb 09, Consumer Sentiment came in 56.2, market expecting 61.0, previous value 61.2.
- 17th Feb 09, Empire State Mfg Survey
- 18th Feb 09, Housing Starts, Import/Export Prices, Industrial Production, FOMC Minutes
- 19th Feb 09, PPI, Jobless Claims
- 20th Feb 09, CPI
Technically, DJI long term trend still neutral while short-term wise bias towards upside. Stochastic going to cut up probably indicating short-term rebound. The rebound might lack the strength as DI pair still negatively spaced. Immediate resistance should be around the 8,300 level. Something to note is that since Jan till now, DJI has been doing a lower high and lower low and this should be a concern as it might going down to test the intra-day low of 7, 450 level should this trend continues. Tentatively, DJI support level is around the 7,450 level.
Nasdaq long term term still neutral and short-term trend bias towards upside. Stochastic signal flattening above the 50% level and about to cut up with RSI maintained above the 50% level indicating the support level is holding up well. Though DI pair still negatively spaced but with ADX below 20, the downside is lacking the strength. Nasdaq currently trading within the range of 1,440 to 1,600. Compared with DJI, Nasdaq does not have the lower high and lower low trend. Since Nasdaq mainly consists of technology stocks, this could give some indication that US technology companies could be the one that currently supporting US economy from worsening.
S&P500 long term trend still neutral and short-term wise bias towards the upside. Stochastic signal starts to show sign of flattening around the 35% level and could be cutting up the coming week. RSI holding well at the 50% level too. DI pair though still negatively spaced, DI+ appears to cut up while DI- cutting down. ADX is around the 20 level hence indicating downside lacking of strength. S&P500 support and resistance levels are at 800 and 880 respectively. Compared with DJI, there isn't sign of lower high and lower low trend so far and chances of re-testing the low of 740 might not be high for the moment.
For the coming week, US market is on a 4-day trading week as 16th Feb is US President Day whereby markets closed for the day. 16th Feb 09, President Obama is expected to sign the stimulus bill and with talk of US Government going in to help the mortage problem market direction could be dictated by this event. There will also be couple of important economic data appearing the coming week which investors might be looking at to determine that status of US economy now.
