just a quick market view.
markets hit a low last time and rebound strongly then on average 8% - 10% after some "improvement" from the EU regarding their debts. note none of the plans so far being physically implemented yet and hence market is looking at the "hope" to move up.
at this moment, market is bias towards the upside more than the downside.
short-covering and bargain hunting can be seen for past days. most important, have not detected funds outflow and we might have a situation whereby funds are slowly moving back.
in order for the upside to sustain, market need to have some pull back, consolidate then can have more strength to move up.
earnings season just started, most expected not very good earnings. the actual result might not matter as what the respective company's forecast 3 to 6 months down the road should be in focus.
from what i see presently, market should have hit the bottom last week. unless we have confirmation from economic data that there is a recession, else downside at the moment should be limited. the economic data 3 to 6 months later should be able to confirm whether recession or not.
those with higher risk, could do a buy on dips and if 3 to 6 months later, economic data shows recession, should just sell off.
should there be no recession, we might see a sharp rebound like what we have seen in march 2009.
for those with lower risk, can wait 3 to 6 months later when economic data confirm no recession then come back in. then you would not be able to buy at the bottom but any sharp rebound should be able to get you some reasonable gain till the next periods of another crisis appears ( probably 2014 )
