Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Market Summary -- 23rd Nov 11

FTSE STI closed 2,676.57, down 40.63 points or -1.50% with a total volume of 1.59b and a total value of S$1.16b.  Total number of advance vs decline was 120 vs 341.  Of the 30 component index stocks, 4 closed positive and 26 closed negative.  The 4 gainer component stocks were :-

1. F&N  +0.060
2. ST Engg  +0.010
3. StarHub  +0.010
4. ComfortDelGro  +0.005

The top 5 loser component stocks were :-

1. JMH 400US$  -1.370
2. JSH 500US$  -0.700
3. CityDev  -0.290
4. UOB  -0.280
5. Jardine C&C  -0.250

US markets closed negative yesterday night after a weaker than expected 3Q GDP figure of 2% vs 2.5%.  Asian bourses were on a selling mode for the day.  Nikkei closed for holiday, SSE -0.73% and HSI -2.12%.  STI fell 1.50% with only 4 of the 30 index stocks managed to register positive closing.

It was one of those days when all the bad news appeared and caused panic and fear to investors who just have to dump to reduce risk.  Firstly, the weaker US GDP has analysts suddenly raised the probability of recession, next German came out to resist talk of possible Euro bond and bigger role for ECB to stem out EU crisis, this morning report said China manufacturing could slow down this month and have investors re-worried of China possible hard landing.  Finally, Singapore October inflation came in more than expected of +5.4% vs +5.2%.  Fear of US recession, fear of EU crisis can't be resolve and fear of China hard landing just hit the headline and investors with panic and fear just sell off to reduce risk.

Is the market over-react to those events ?  US recession ? A while ago series of reasonable economic data just have analysts think US should not be getting into recession and now they just flip their view with a weaker than expected 3Q GDP number ?  EU debt crisis is nothing new and will take time to slower heal with those austerity measures.  No quick fix and one-for-all solution is long expected.  China hard landing ? well that again like whether US will go into recession have analysts flip-flopping their view on it.

There is no concrete data to show US will go into recession at the moment and similarly no concrete data to indicate China will have a hard landing.  EU debt as indicated by the EU leaders will be a long long way to get it fully resolve.  At the end of the day, those events that caused markets to sell down is not something new already.  Investors could be just over react to it with the help of analysts famously flip-flopping their views.