Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Market Summary -- 29th Nov 11

FTSE STI closed 2,688.10, down 6.33 points or -0.23% with a total volume of 1.64b and a total value of S$1.04b.  Total number of advance vs decline was 191 vs 233.  Of the 30 component index stocks, 7 closed positive, 17 closed negative and 6 remained unchanged.  The top 5 gainer component stocks were :-

1. UOB  +0.190
2. F&N  +0.160
3. DBS  +0.110
4. HKLand US$  +0.040
5. NobleGrp  +0.020

The top 5 loser component stocks were :-

1. StarHub  -0.090
2. SGX  -0.080
3. KepCorp  -0.070
4. Jardine C&C  -0.070
5. CityDev  -0.070

US markets closed at least +2.5% yesterday night as investors were relief by the Europe debt crisis on hope that EU leaders will be coming out solution to contain the crisis in the coming EU Summit and a record Black Friday sale figure.  Asian bourses were mostly positive for the day.  Nikkei closed +2.30%, SSE +1.23% and HSI +1.21%.  STI swing between positive and negative but closed -0.23%.  Only 7 of the 30 index stocks managed to register positive closing.

Markets were filled with both positive and negative news and that caused investors uncertain about the market direction.  With hope of EU leaders coming up solution to contain the debt crisis and EU Finance Ministers meeting today to discuss on the EFSF, short-covering caused the market to move up but with knowledge that any step taken will just be a small positive step as the EU debt issue still a long way to being fully resolved, investors with long position are being cautious on being over optimistic and hence any up in the market will be opportunity to sell.  This has result in directionless market as seen in STI.

The underlying fact remains, the EU debt crisis is not going to get resolve immediately as there will not have a one-fix-all or quick fix solution.  However, with EU leaders and globally know that if the debt crisis is not contain immediately, it will cause a systemic failure in global economy.  Hence, EU leaders will be working and looking at all aspect to implement measures/plans to contain the damage.  This has been warned by OECD yesterday when it assessed the global economy and cut forecast for next year.  One also do note that despite the very bearish sentiment from OECD, many times OECD will behind the curve in assessing economic situation and that bearish outlook should have been warned of some months ago and not really now.

Investors also have to note that stock markets were like a coil, when depressed it will recoil back and while fully expand, it will lost its elasticity and eventually compress back.  Hence every sever sold down in the market due to bad news will eventually come a point whereby it will rebound strongly and vice versa.  Investors should not take to the extreme side of being overly bearish and bullish in current situation.  The EU debt crisis will get it solves eventually but will take a long time while the seriousness of the damage of the crisis is globally known and no one will want that to happen.