Firstly, I tried to find out when Venture was first listed in SGX but unfortunately I couldn't find any information on it except 1984 was the year Venture was founded. It is unlikely that it was listed in SGX then as I have never come across a company get listed on the year it was founded. The only earliest data I could get from the chart was 1995. So I have no choice to start the Elliott Wave counting from there. Thus, the following analysis could or could not be accurate in term of cycle count due to this fact.
Some Elliott Wave naming that I will be using for the analysis.
1,2,3,4,5,A,B,C,W,X,Y = Intermediate degree
(1),(2),(3),(4),(5),(A),(B),(C),(W),(X),(Y) = Cycle degree
((1)),((2)),((3)),((4)),((5)),((A)),((B)),((C)),((W)),((X)),((Y)) = Supercycle degree
As I do not know the exact IPO year (day 1 of Elliott Wave count) and to minimize the error of doing wrong wave count, I will only look at Supercycle and Cycle degree level.
From the above chart, from 1995 to 2000 a 5 impulse was formed and I'll put that as Supercycle degree Wave ((1)). From 2000 to 2009 that shall be the corrective wave or Supercycle degree Wave ((2)) and it progressed as a double-three structure (W)-(X)-(Y). The rise from 2009 till the recent peak of $29.65 shall be Supercycle degree Wave ((3)). However, that could not be end of that wave as the drop overlap into the peak of Supercycle Wave ((1)) (at $25) as this is violation of Elliott Wave rule. Hence, the April peak should be Cycle degree Wave (3) of the Supercycle degree Wave ((3)). The current drop or correction should be Cycle degree Wave (4) of the Supercycle degree Wave ((3)). That is to say there is still one more upside in the Supercycle degree Wave ((3)) before Supercycle degree Wave ((4)) kicks in. When Supercycle degree Wave ((4)) starts, it shall not drop below peak of Supercycle Wave ((1)), now at $25 but should change to a lower value due to adjustment for dividend.
There was a correction between 2011 and 2012 and that should be counted as Cycle degree Wave (1) and Wave (2) of the Supercycle degree Wave ((3)). That correction did a 50% Fibonacci Retracement with a simple zigzag pattern as shown in the chart. 50% is neither a deep or shallow correction and as such, the present correction Cycle degree Wave (4), due to its alternate pattern as compared to Wave (2), could either doing a 38.2% or 50% Fibonacci Retracement. Typically, Elliott Wave Wave 2 usually a deeper correction than Wave 4 and that is why I have ruled out the possibility of current correction doing a 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement. It is still possible but with a lower probability that all. Another is the alternation of pattern between Wave 2 and Wave 4. Since Cycle degree Wave (2) is a simple zigzag, then more likely Cycle degree Wave (4) will be a combination (such as flat, triangle or a double-three). Combination pattern usually take a longer period to form as compared to the simple zigzag case so don't expect current correction to end soon. It will rebound, drop, rebound and drop couple of times to complete the pattern.
Now the interesting point is will it do a 38.2% or 50.0% Fibonacci Retracement. Should it be 38.2%, as shown in the chart above, it has hit and this level should be a support for it to complete the rest of the correction pattern. However, if it does a 50.0% Fibonacci Retracement, it will have some more downside (the last drop) for this correction to complete.
