Thursday, June 14, 2018

Elliott Wave Analysis on DBS

As mentioned in STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (XIII) about cautions on financial stocks, below is the chart Elliott Wave analysis on DBS.


There have been quite a lot of analysis on DBS going around mostly positive citing moving up to $40 to $50.  Well that could be a possibility even with Elliott Wave analysis BUT before hitting that target, a correction in the form of Wave 4 has to sit in.  One can draw trend lines, look at money in-flow and out-flow to justify that but none of those are a closed-loop analysis tool like Elliott Wave.  You can see the ultimate target but can't see the process of getting there like Elliott Wave.

The above chart show DBS price movement from 2009.  It is much cleaner that STI in term of wave count.  Clearly, Wave 1 ended in 2015 at $19.03.  Wave 2 ended in 2016 at $11.70.  Wave 3 probably ended in May 2018 at around $30.10.  DBS as of now either is in Wave 4 correction or will have a little more upside before Wave 4 correction kicks in.  There are several points that could justify this wave count.

1. Wave 1 from $4.47 to $19.03 = $14.56

2. Wave 2 from $19.03 to $11.70, a 50% Fibonacci Retracement of Wave 1

3. Wave 3 from $11.70 to $30.17 = $18.47 which is 1.269x of Wave 1, a bit below the norm of 1.618x and also affirm that Wave 3 is not the shortest wave rule

4. Price is at a good distance from Wave 1 peak now even if a 38.2% or 50% Fibonacci Retracement (as shown in the above chart) it will not overlap into Wave 1 which is a rule of Elliott Wave

Since the bottom at 2016, there isn't a serious correction occur yet and that raise the possibility of one occurring soon.  Coupling with those conditions listed above from Elliott Wave it just fit the bill on either a Wave 4 correction is ongoing or is about come.

The target of $40 to $50 is possible by Elliott Wave count as it still have Wave 5 yet to complete but before that a correction has to sit in.