The above is the big picture regarding the amount of drop with respect to Fibonacci Ratio. The 161.8%, a very common level to drop to is around the current level at $0.645. However, there is no guarantee it will not go beyond that.
The chart above is the famous STI crash in 2008 during the GFC. It has fallen beyond the 161.8% and landed somewhere between the 200% to 238.2%. That drop according to Elliott Wave analysis happened due to extended wave count. Now, should ThaiBev follows that amount of drop to between 200% to 238.2%, that will end up at price between $0.485 to $0.565. This indicates a potential (only a potential) to drop further.
The above chart is the top level of correction so far for ThaiBev since August 2016. It clearly defined the structure of wave ((w)), ((x)), ((y)). Overall, it is combination formation with wave ((w)) consists of a simple zig-zag, wave ((x)), the linking wave developed into a triangle pattern. The questionable one is wave ((y)).
Have seen most trying to do a wave i,ii,iii,iv,v wave count for the wave ((y)). However, there are some questionable points that don't seem to fit in the i,ii,iii,iv,v wave count. Firstly, the red wave count of i,ii,iii,iv,v meets a rule violation of wave iv overlaps into wave i. Next, the green wave count of i,ii,iii,iv,v seems nicely fit on the first glance with wave v doing a ending diagonal pattern (v-i, v-ii, v-iii, v-iv, v-v). However, wave iv touches wave i at around price $0.865. Though it is not overlap but it is questionable whether it is a rule violation. Should that is not a violation, then there is an unaccounted structure in wave i (as highlight from the chart above) with wave i doing a a-b-c structure ? There is no such thing in Elliott Wave.
Should the 5-wave impulse being mapped out as above with wave iii doing an extended wave (wave iii-i to iii-v) and wave v doing an ending diagonal (wave v-i to v-v), it looks possible but there are some questionable points too. First, the touching of wave iii-iv and wave iii-i, the extended wave count inside wave iii is a questionable rule violation. Next, a more than 423% wave iii length is an extremely long and rare (in fact never came across) for an extended wave iii. All these raise the question of whether a 5-wave impulse can be fitted in wave ((y)) or not.
If wave ((y)) can't fit a 5-wave impulse then the only possible scenario is nested combination already, that is consisted of sub-level w-x-y.
One possible pattern of wave ((y)) is to have a double-three of zigzag-flat formation. The sub-level of wave (w) (consists of another sub-level w-x-y), linking wave (x) are clearly defined. However, for a flat ending structure, the remaining portion must do a 5-wave. The overlapping of wave iv with wave i has invalidated the 5-wave thus a double-three with zigzag-flat pattern doesn't look fit either. That left with wave (y) a possibility of another sub-level combination w-x-y.
2 scenarios exist here, purple and green.
For the purple wave count, the wave (y) will be doing another sub-level combination of w-x-y with wave a of wave y at this moment. That should lead to a rebound (since it also hit the lower boundary of the channel) to form the wave b of wave y then the final drop to complete wave c of wave y, eventually to complete wave (y) and wave ((y)). This scenario should point to a price drop to the 200% - 238.2% ($0.565 - $0.485) as described above.
For the green wave count, probably the more optimistic one is at current level of $0.64 and since it is hitting the lower boundary of the channel and also the 161.8% Fibonacci level, this will be the wave y of wave (y) and eventually the end of wave ((y)).
Either scenario, it is pointing a rebound from the current level. A breakout from the upper boundary of the channel should rule out the purple scenario while failing to do so will be the purple scenario already.
