The above chart is UOL price performance since 1999. An Elliott Wave Primary degree with wave (1) peak in 2007, the 2008 subprime GFC leads its to fall into wave (2) hitting the bottom in 2009 and from then on till January 2018 is wave (3). A sub-level Intermediate degree for wave (3) can be seen nicely completed (1-2-3-4-5). The correction since January 2018 is wave (4). To ensure the Elliott Wave is valid, rules and guidelines are checked.
1. Wave (1) length = 4.959, wave (3) length = 8.065 and wave (3) : wave (1) = 1.626 very close to the 1.618 Fibonacci Ratio
2. The Intermediate degree wave 1-2-3-4-5 for wave (3) does not have any of the 3 Elliott Wave rules violation hence making wave (3) a valid wave count
3. Wave (2) correction falls to between 61.8% to 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement which is a very common deep correction for Elliott Wave 2
4. The current wave (4) correction falls lowest to a level between 23.6% to 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement, a very common level for Elliott Wave 4 correction and also provides the guideline of alternation between wave 2 and wave 4
Thus, from Primary degree, the wave count is valid without violation so far.
The above chart shows the wave (4) correction. The correction, WXY, plays out to be a Flat (3-3-5) pattern. The 5-wave impulse of the wave Y consists of i-ii-iii-iv and either an ending diagonal wave v or a sub-level degree 5-wave impulse wave v (v-i, v-ii, v-iii, v-iv, v-v). From the look of it, the wave count appears to be completed for the wave (4) correction. The price rebound now could be the early stage of the Primary degree wave (5).
The first level of confirmation will be breaking out at $7 as this should show the 5-wave impulse wave v has ended as there is no other variation to form wave v. The second level and the most important level of confirmation will be the breaking out at $7.32 - $7.40. This level should be a resistance and also a potential peak for Intermediate wave 1 in which it will require the 2nd time (Intermediate wave 3) to break through.
An observation was made on 18th Sep 2018 when the price fell to a level that is like doing a 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement as shown in the chart above. This looks very well like the Minor degree of wave i and ii of Intermediate degree wave 1. The rebound after that is Minor degree wave iii and if everything go according to the Fibonacci Ratio, Minor wave iii should end around $7 then Minor wave iv kicks in and Minor wave 5 will end at $7.32, the importance resistance level that was mentioned above. This will in turn complete Intermediate degree wave 1 of Primary degree wave (5). This fit very well that Intermediate degree wave 3 will be the 2nd time to test that resistance and breakout from there.
Added 4th Oct 2018
The intra-day low of $6.61 has invalidated the above wave count. As such, UOL still in correction.Added 5th Oct 2018
As the above wave count is invalidated, takes a re-look into the bigger picture of the chart again.
The wave count naming is not much difference from the earlier chart just that now applies the degree level. Supercycle Wave ((C)) ended in 2003 when there was economy recession from 2001 - 2003 and SARS crisis. From 2003 to 2007 is the new Supercycle Wave ((1)). The new Supercycle Wave ((2)) ended in 2009 due to the 2008 GFC. From 2009 to 2017 is the new Supercycle Wave ((3)). From 2017 till now is the new Supercycle Wave ((4)). Unfortunately, this Supercycle Wave ((4)) yet to run its full course, probably only finish Cycle Wave (A) only or still doing Wave (A). The peak of Wave ((1)) is at $4.85 and from the above Fibonacci Retracement level, Wave ((4)) yet to hit 38.2%. Should it go down to between 38.2% to 50%, it still do not overlap Wave ((1)) causing any rule violation. Therefore, there is still room for the correction to continue to form Wave (A) (if not fully done), Wave (B) and eventually Wave (C). Thus, any upside is just the false-rally Wave (B) which is limited.
Added 11th Oct 2018
The drop today almost hit the 38.3% Fibonacci level and probably into the last stretch of the correction.
The above is the wave count for the correction. On Supercycle degree it is a wave ((4)) correction and applying the guideline that wave 4 correction shall be between 38.2% to 50%, look like the correction is coming to the last stretch. The correction pattern in Cycle degree is a triangle (A)-(B)-(C)-(D)-(E) (magenta) in which the current is the wave (E). Each Cycle Wave of the triangle is formed by a Primary degree 3 wave pattern A-B-C (red). So far all the wave count fit nicely into the overall correction pattern. In Wave (E), only Wave A is ongoing or maybe formed by today drop in price. A rebound to form Wave B (should not break out from the channel line) and the final Wave C down, either to form an undershoot or on the channel line or overshoot should complete the Wave (E) and ended the Supercycle Wave ((4)) degree.
