As mentioned in Stock Incubator -- Creative Technology blogging of any technical analysis shall be ceased so here will be the last post to summarize up all the analysis so far and what's expect going forward.
The recent weakness in global stock markets have in a way invalidate the previous wave count. From the look of it, there are 2 possible wave counts.
Wave Count 1 (Blue)
Since the drop from $10, it has developed into a large ascending triangle with (a), (b), (c) and (d) of the triangle being formed. The fall to intra-day low of $5.51 on 11th Oct 2018, dropping out of the triangle shall be considered as wave (e) of the triangle doing an overshoot. As such, the triangle pattern has completed and the rebound now should see it breakout from $7, the upper boundary of the ascending triangle. What interesting is the candlestick on 11th Oct was a long-legged doji and with the rebound the day after, it does look like forming a morning star pattern which is a bullish sign. Breaking out at $7 will confirm this wave count but a drop below $5.51 will invalidate this wave count.
Wave Count 2 (Red)
Should Wave Count 1 becomes invalid, this wave count will kick in. This is actually not a new wave count, it is just a continuous from the previous wave count. In the previous wave count it was said to form a double-three combination (zigzag - triangle). With the drop on 11th Oct 2018 which invalidated that wave count, it appears to be forming a triple-three combination. In theory triple-three is a valid correction pattern but is being listed as rare case. In fact in practice yet to come across such a case. A triple-three combination is labeled as WXYXZ. With this wave count, the rise to $7.04 on 24th Sep 2018 is the 2nd X wave. So far, the 1st two pattern for the combination is zigzag and triangle. The 3rd pattern is unknown as still ongoing. The most likely should be a zigzag. Have to rule out another triangle as it cannot have 2 triangles in the down part of the correction pattern (W, Y, Z). A flat is another possibility but a low one as it will have to form a 3-3-5 pattern and that will really drag the correction duration even further. As for the zigzag case, it will need a rebound and the last drop to complete the pattern. The last drop is possible to break lower than $5.51. While this is a possible wave count, a rare one, it is also one that hope is not true.
Added 17th Oct 2018
Update for archive purpose regarding the big ascending triangle correction pattern.
As triangle is known as 3-3-3-3-3 pattern, normally people will take each wave of the triangle to be a zigzag shape. However, in theory, the 3 can represent any correction pattern -- zigzag, flat triangle, double-three. In the case of Creative Technology big ascending triangle correction, each of the wave represents a different 3 pattern as shown from the chart above.
wave (a) = zigzag
wave (b) = flat (3-3-5) -- invert flat
wave (c) = triangle
wave (d) = zigzag
wave (e) = zigzag
While zigzag and triangle are common pattern, a flat (inverted one) is probably the first time came across.
So this will put an end to the Elliott Wave analysis of Creative Technology.
