Wednesday, November 21, 2018

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Analysis

US indices are renowned for following Elliott Wave very closely and it is worth to analyze to archive for future use.



Above is the S&P500 chart for the recent correction.  Ignoring the Elliott Wave degree it is in and just solely focus on the present correction, it is no doubt doing a zigzag pattern of A-B-C.  For each of A-B-C wave, there is another sub-level of a-b-c zigzag.  The following is some of the statistic observed from it.

W5 = 2939.86
A-a = 2710.51
A-b = 2816.94 (46.41% A-a)
A = 2603.54 (93.05% A-a)
B = 2815.15 (62.92% A)
C-a = 2670.75
C-b = 2746.75 (52.63% C-a)

The guidelines for a zigzag correction state that :-

1. Wave B typically retraces 38% - 79% of Wave A
-- Wave A-b, B and C-b all are the Wave B at different level and all retrace between 38% - 79% of Wave A

2. Wave C = 61.8%, 100%, 123.6% or 161.8% of Wave A
-- Wave A which is Wave A-c = 93.05% of Wave A-a, following the guideline

As Wave C still ongoing, it remains to be seen whether it will follow the guideline.

For C-c = 100% of C-a, this will lead S&P500 to 2602.35 level. 
For Wave C = 61.8% of Wave A, this will lead S&P500 to 2607.30 level

Looking at the above 2 end values, one deducing bottom-up and the other top-down, both converge to a value very close to each other.  This raise the possibility that S&P500 could end around that level for the current drop.  So, nothing to be alarmed should S&P500 getting another 1% to 2% drop in a single session since it has another 40 points to reach the level.

However, whether the present correction will it stop there is another question as this zigzag pattern could be a sub-level structure for a higher level pattern.