Wednesday, January 9, 2019

STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (37)

Continued from STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (36)

Till now, STI still yet to reach a confirmation of either it is in a scenario of post-correction or still in correction.  The following analysis shall be on the scenario of post-correction only and awaiting for confirmation signals to rule out the still in correction scenario.

The above chart is the possible trajectory for the post-correction scenario.  STI ended the P2 wave at 2955.68, completed the M1 wave at 3192.88 followed by the M2 wave at 2993.42.  Following that sequence, STI is now in the M3 wave with a potential target of 3377.21 going by Fibonacci ratio.  The M3 wave will not be a straight line moving up and a 5-wave sub level should be visible at the following calculated level.

m1 = 3165.06
m2 = 3058.99
m3 = 3336.70
m4 = 3230.62
m5 = 3377.21

STI closed 3158.07 after reaching an intra-day high of 3159.31, just less than 6 points off the calculated level.  Any pull back shall be seen as m2.  As this is the sub level of M2, duration for each of the m wave will be short typically not more than 3 days.  

Should STI is really in the post-correction scenario, this is a possible trajectory that it will move toward the confirmation level at 3338.

Added 10th Jan 2019

STI exceeded the 3165 level, the calculated m1 peak and closed at day high of 3183.51.  That was a positive bias towards the post-correction scenario.  However, like other global stock markets, it is ripe for a pull back for m2 wave formation or the last leg down of correction (US markets).  The recent high of 3192.88 registered on 3rd Dec 2018 theoretically is a good peak value of m1 wave (a very typical textbook case).  A m2 pull back should enable STI to close all the gap up happened for the past few days.  By closing all those gaps up, STI will have to move down to 3080, a 50% - 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (if m1 peak is 3192.88), a very typical retracement level for a wave 2 pull back.

Added 14th Jan 2019

STI pulled back after 6 consecutive days of gain closing at 3180.91.  The pull back wasn't something unexpected mentioned previously, the peak of m1 wave around the Dec 2018 high of 3173.46.  As such, this pull back shall be the m2 correction, a potentially sharp pull back to the region around 3080, a typical 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and also to cover the gaps formed for the past days during the run up.

The above is the Fibonacci Calculator software that I developed myself and can seen from the calculated m2 level is at 3076.02.  After this m2 will be the m3 up wave again.  As this is a Minute degree Elliott wave count, the action will be fast in term of time duration, typically on average 3 days per wave action.

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