After 35 editions of analysis, STI still going nowhere in Elliott wave count as it can still be in corrective phase or post-correction impulsive phase. This is mainly due to the fact that neither of the scenario has been ruled out because of Elliott wave rules violation. Thus, when in doubts, backtrack to recount and start from basic again.
For this analysis, the 36th edition, backtrack to February 2016 when STI hit a bottom of 2528.44 and that according to past analysis was the SuperCycle Wave 3 Cycle Wave 2 (S3C2) after the bottom in 2009 caused by 2008 GFC. With that in mind, from 2016 till 2018 was the completion of SuperCycle Wave 3 Cycle Wave 3 Primary Wave 1 (S3C3P1). The time frame for Primary degree Elliott wave ranges from few months to couple of years so that fit the criteria to be labeled as P1. In the very earlier analysis, January 2018 was labeled as being the peak of P1 but that somehow was shifted in STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (30) in October 2018 due to in line with wave count of the 3 local banks. The new P1 which was 3641.65 in May 2018 might be incorrect so the recount from 2016 is to double confirm whether peak of P1 should be in January or May 2018. After all, that will affect the subsequent wave counts.
With peak at January and May 2018 the following statistic were observed
January 2018
I0 = 2528.44
I1 = 2964.10
I2 = 2760.97 (46.63% I1)
I3 = 3354.71 (136.29% I1)
I4 = 3193.41 (27.17% I3)
I5 = 3611.69 (96.01% I1 | 50.62% I0I3)
May 2018
I0 = 2528.44
I1 = 2964.10
I2 = 2767.44 (45.14% I1)
I3 = 3611.69 (193.79% I1)
I4 = 3338.96 (32.30% I3)
I5 = 3641.65 (69.48% I1)
Neither of the above is a typical textbook statistical case for sure as the questionable part arises in the length of I5.
For January 2018 case, I3 was less than 1.618x I1 but not a violation as this happens 15% of the time. If it happens, length of I5 shall be either 0.618x or 1x or 1.618x of I0 - I3. In this case, it is only 0.5062x, falling short of the minimum guideline of 0.618x.
For the May 2018 case, I3 is more than 1.618x I1 which is a pretty common situation as it happens 30% of the time. However, for this case, I5 is only 0.6948x of I1 which falls short of the minimum guideline that it is 1x I1.
Thus, neither case presents strong conclusion to claim it is the correct wave count. After much thought, would suggest the January 2018 wave count deems more appropriate.
1. The deviation of I5 from minimum guideline is lesser.
2. It addresses the various up and down with a wave count of a more acceptable time frame for the various degree of Elliott wave.
3. It is also able to address for possible more downside to STI going forward in term of wave count with an established correction pattern rather than just keep labeling A-B-C and W-X-Y or even W-X-Y-X-Z just to accommodate for further downside. This should not be the way to perform Elliott wave count.
Hence, STI Elliott wave analysis is now revert back to the earlier wave count that peak of P1 ended in January 2018. Unfortunately, with that STI still back to the 2 possible scenarios as described by the charts below
The difference between the 2 scenarios is the position of the wave count IX. For the STI already in post-correction, IX is at level 3347.98 while for still in correction phase IX is at level 3272.88. For the latter case, IX develops into a slightly more complex pattern and it is only in this wave count a possible downside could happen to STI.
Though on the surface it seems like nothing breakthrough has been achieved after the recount but the recount does provide levels to lookout for (either early warning or confirmation) for invalidation of either of the scenario.
Post-correction scenario
STI 3004 is an early warning for invalid wave count and 2955 is the confirmation for invalid wave count.
Still in correction scenario
STI 3192 is an early warning for invalid wave count and 3272 is the confirmation for invalid wave count.
A weekly chart is also being analyzed (help to eliminate the daily fluctuation) and the following chart was observed.
Again, the 2 possible scenarios appears despite the signals look cleaner than the daily chart.
STI could be really in a crossroad junction now and just have to track the early warning and confirmation signals to finally affirm which scenario is happening going forward.
Added 26th Dec 2018
STI hit an intra-day low of 3000.45 before closing at 3011.15. The early warning level for still in correction scenario has been triggered but is not confirmed. There is still a possibility that this is a false earning warning signal given the following situation.
The Fibonacci ratio for M2 correction indicates an ending level at around 2986, which is between a 87.18% Fibonacci retracement. It is a deep one but not rule breaking as it has not fallen below 2955.68. The possibility is there but not absolute. A break below 2955.68 is a confirmation that STI still in correction phase while any rebound above that value in particular 2986.10 still put STI in the possibility of a post-correction scenario.
