Case Study 1
ComfortDelGro from Dec 2017 when it hit the low of $1.806 to the high of $2.49 in Oct 2018 and to the low again of $2.07 in Nov - Dec 2018. During these periods, the price movement completed wave 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, A, B, C -- one cycle of Elliott Wave as shown from the chart below.
According to the above wave nodes and their respective value, this is input into the Elliott Wave Calculator (the Fibonacci Calculator) as shown in the snapshot below
The value of each of the wave and its respective Fibonacci ratio is being calculated and not the mention a chart is being plot just like the usual Elliott Wave. Now, this is the how this Fibonacci Calculator works. By just inputting Wave 0 and Wave 1 values, it can calculate the respective Wave 2, 3, 4, 5, A, B and C values based on certain algorithm. User can also just input Wave 0 and Wave 5 values and it is able to count backward to get the in between Wave 2, 3, 4 values.
The above snapshot is another feature of the Fibonacci Calculator, it is able to bring up a 2nd calculator and this is very handy when comes to comparing of values. The left portion of the snapshot is the actual happened wave values. The right portion as can be seen Wave 0 and Wave 1 values are the same as in the left portion -- inputting Wave 0 and Wave 1 to generate Wave 2, 3, 4, 5, A, B, C values.
Wave 2 : 1.873 (Actual) vs 1.882 (Calculated) -- difference +0.48%
Wave 3 : 2.464 (Actual) vs 2.406 (Calculated) -- difference -2.35%
Wave 4 : 2.220 (Actual) vs 2.206 (Calculated) -- difference -0.63%
Wave 5 : 2.490 (Actual) vs 2.453 (Calculated) -- difference -1.49%
Wave A : 2.110 (Actual) vs 2.187 (Calculated) -- difference +3.65%
Wave B : 2.370 (Actual) vs 2.320 (Calculated) -- difference -2.11%
Wave C : 2.070 (Actual) vs 2.053 (Calculated) -- difference -0.82%
Putting aside the corrective wave and just focus on the motive wave (wave 1 - 5), the difference between the actual and the calculated values are within +/- 2.5%. For corrective wave, more will be discussed below. This is done by just inputting Wave 0 and Wave 1 values. Also note that, the "W3 Ext" feature has to be activated if not it is not possible to get the correct calculation. Wave 3 (most of the time) or Wave 5 extension do occurred in Elliott Wave and this calculator is able to factor in those scenarios.
Case Study 2
This time STI from the period Feb 2016 when it hit the bottom at 2528.44 to the peak of 3641.65 in May 2018 and finally the low of 2955.68 in Oct 2018. This fits well an Elliott Wave cycle of Wave 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, A, B and C as shown in the chart below.
Next using those Elliott Wave points, this is being input into the Fibonacci Calculator as shown.
The value and its respective Fibonacci ratio are all displayed together with the Elliott Wave chart. Next doing the same thing as in Case Study 1, bringing up the 2nd Fibonacci Calculator and input Wave values to generate rest of the values.
From the above snapshot, unlike in Case Study 1, Wave 0 to Wave 4 values have to be inputted in order to get a fairly accurate Wave 5, A, B and C values.
Wave 5 : 3641.65 (Actual) vs 3656.336 (Calculated) -- difference +0.40%
Wave A : 3196.150 (Actual) vs 3191.643 (Calculated) -- difference -0.14%
Wave B : 3347.98 (Actual) vs 3423.99 (Calculated) -- difference +2.27%
Wave C : 2955.68 (Actual) vs 2959.296 (Calculated) -- difference +0.12%
Comparing to Case Study 1, the difference between Actual and Calculated is even smaller. This shows that the more input one put into the calculator, the more it is able to converge to the desired target. The requirement to input so many values is not a fault of this calculator. This is because of the basis and fundamental of Elliott Wave principle. Each of the wave in Elliott Wave is related to the other by Fibonacci ratio, not an exact ratio but a range of ratio. Example Wave 2 is not always going to be 61.8% of Wave 1 as the most likely occurrence is between 50% - 61.8%. Wave 3 can be anything from 100% to 261.8% of Wave 1 too. Should the price movement not able to track the very typical case of an Elliott Wave model, putting in more inputs is unavoidable.
Case Study 3
Kep Corp hit the low at $5.67 in Dec 2018, peaking at $6.38 in Jan 2019 and now in the correction phase. To the exact, the Elliott Wave sequence that has completed is Wave 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, A and B. Currently it is in Wave C. The following is the Elliott Wave chart of Kep Corp
Case Study 3
Kep Corp hit the low at $5.67 in Dec 2018, peaking at $6.38 in Jan 2019 and now in the correction phase. To the exact, the Elliott Wave sequence that has completed is Wave 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, A and B. Currently it is in Wave C. The following is the Elliott Wave chart of Kep Corp
Inputting the completed Elliott Wave sequence into the Fibonacci Calculator will get the following snapshot
Have to blank out the calculated Wave C value as it is undergoing and it is a good idea not to reveal where Wave C will terminate at. Now using the feature of by inputting Wave 0 & Wave 5 value into the Fibonacci Calculator to count backward of the Elliott Wave sequence, a feature that this Fibonacci Calculator is capable of doing in.
As seen from the snapshot above, Wave 0 ($5.67) and Wave 5 ($6.38) are inputted and Wave 2, 3, 4, A, B, C are calculated. Again have to blank out Wave C value. The followings are the differences obtained between the Actual and Calculator result
Wave 1 : 5.98 (Actual) vs 5.988 (Calculated) -- difference +0.13%
Wave 2 : 5.78 (Actual) vs 5.791 (Calculated) -- difference +0.19%
Wave 3 : 6.27 (Actual) vs 6.305 (Calculated) -- difference +0.56%
Wave 4 : 6.11 (Actual) vs 6.109 (Calculated) -- difference -0.02%
Wave A : 6.11 (Actual) vs 6.087 (Calculated) -- difference -0.38%
Wave B : 6.28 (Actual) vs 6.234 (Calculated) -- difference -0.73%
The differences are all within +/- 1%.
Next, revert back to count forward by inputting just Wave 0 ($5.67) and Wave 1 ($5.98) value.
Wave 1 : 5.98 (Actual) vs 5.988 (Calculated) -- difference +0.13%
Wave 2 : 5.78 (Actual) vs 5.791 (Calculated) -- difference +0.19%
Wave 3 : 6.27 (Actual) vs 6.305 (Calculated) -- difference +0.56%
Wave 4 : 6.11 (Actual) vs 6.109 (Calculated) -- difference -0.02%
Wave A : 6.11 (Actual) vs 6.087 (Calculated) -- difference -0.38%
Wave B : 6.28 (Actual) vs 6.234 (Calculated) -- difference -0.73%
The differences are all within +/- 1%.
Next, revert back to count forward by inputting just Wave 0 ($5.67) and Wave 1 ($5.98) value.
The above is the snapshot for the default counting forward method. Again, Wave C calculated value has to be blank off. The differences between Actual and Calculated result are as followed :-
Wave 2 : 5.78 (Actual) vs 5.788 (Calculated) -- difference +0.14%
Wave 3 : 6.27 (Actual) vs 6.29 ( Calculated) -- difference +0.32%
Wave 4 : 6.11 (Actual) vs 6.098 (Calculated) -- difference -0.20%
Wave 5 : 6.38 (Actual) vs 6.363 (Calculated) -- difference -0.27%
Wave A : 6.11 (Actual) vs 6.078 (Calculated) -- difference -0.52%
Wave B : 6.28 (Actual) vs 6.22 (Calculated) -- difference -0.96%
Again the differences are all within +/- 1%.
Thus, regardless of counting forward or counting backward, the Fibonacci Calculator is able to generate fairly close result which is close to the actual one.
Correction Calculation
Elliott Wave corrective wave is not as simple as motive wave. This is because, there are actually more than 20 correction pattern to form the A-B-C waves. Each pattern has its own unique A-B-C Fibonacci ratio. The A-B-C calculation in the Fibonacci Calculator uses the simple model of zigzag pattern. I've also developed a Correction Calculator to compute all the possible Fibonacci ratio for the 20+ correction patterns.
The above snapshot is the Correction Calculator. By entering Wave 5 and Wave A values, all the possible Wave B and Wave C values can be computed. Above is the STI correction from 3641.65. With Wave 5 and Wave A values being set as the actual values, the closest Wave B calculated value is 3366.331 (38.2% Fibonacci ratio) compared to the actual value of 3347.98, which is a difference of 0.55%. It depends on what correction pattern it can form (zigzag, flat, triangle or combination) and that will determine the Fibonacci ratio of Wave C with respect to Wave A (or Wave AB). Take the common case of Wave C = 100% of Wave A, this will give Wave C to be 2920.831 as shown in the above snapshot and that is -1.18% off the actual 2955.68. The main purpose of this Correction Calculator is not to be spot on but rather provide all the possible targets to be expected during a correction.
There are other features in this Elliott Wave Calculator that is still developing and is unable to show it here at the moment. So is this considered a FinTech ?
Whether it is considered as FinTech or not, one important point is one must possess the knowledge of Elliott Wave in order to use it. Simply punching in input to get the calculated values without analyzing from Elliott Wave perspective will get you nowhere. Have been using to track ongoing price movement lately and found to be pretty spot on. That I'm afraid can't illustrate here as this could easily lead to people profiting from the stock market.
As a result of this Elliott Wave Calculator, have decided to cut down the stock and indices analysis work on this blog. Instead of using this Elliott Wave Calculator to foresee what could be coming and made the necessary preparation, this can turn into a punting for short-term profit tools, which is not my intention in developing it.
