As mentioned previous, the correction for STI is too shallow to consider complete for a wave 2. Thus, it is no surprising STI failed to make any powerful upside last week despite the bounce from 3183.64 on 14th Mar 2019. However, as the way STI has performed last week, it has given out further clue since the bottom at 2955.68.
Firstly, have to rule out the STI-1 scenario. This is the case whereby STI is in Minor wave 3 with start point at 2993.42 and potential end point at 3633.006 mentioned in previous analysis. This is because the Minute degree, the sub level of Minor degree has taken the time frame too long to make any logical sense. As such, this will bring STI to STI-2 scenario. STI-2 scenario is the case where STI Primary wave 2 correction ended at 2993.42 instead of 2955.68 despite not being the lowest point. This is a valid case in term of Elliott Wave in which the lowest point might not be the end count of a correction wave structure. Hence, going forward, this scenario shall be the main focus on analysis until some further combinations emerge as most probably wave count.
The above is the review of the 2018 correction in which it played out a Triple-three correction structure leading to the end correction wave count at 2993.42.
Now the question is the post-correction wave count. Is Minor wave 1 terminated at 3250.27 or 3286.08 ?
Either case, STI is in Minor wave 2 correction. For Minor wave 1 to end at 3250.27 despite the recent high is at 3286.08 is valid as that upside exceeding 3250.27 is the anti-rally wave B. This is valid for Flat structure. A typical wave 2 Fibonacci retracement is between 50% - 78.6% and that would be STI to be between 3139 to 3048 covering both cases of wave 2 correction.
As the Minor wave 2 correction still ongoing, it would be best to maintain both possibilities until some clear visibility could be observed from the correction pattern -- a possible Expanded Flat or a typical Zigzag.
The above 2 snapshots are those generated by the Degree Calculator. The top figure is for the case of Minor wave 1 ended at 3250.27. The generated Minor wave 1 is 3211.932, which is -1.18% from the actual figure. The bottom figure is for the case of Minor wave 1 ended at 3286.08. The generated Minor wave 1 is 3309.657, which is +0.72% from the actual figure. Both the generated data are within the +/- 2.5% worst case accuracy.
Note from the above 2 snapshots, the generated wave 2 ending point is at 3076.892 and 3114.222 respectively. However, if the 2 Minor wave 1 values of 3250.27 and 3286.08 were input to the Degree Calculator to refine the calculation, the wave 2 data will be adjusted accordingly.
The adjusted data as shown in the above 2 snapshots are 3115.23 and 3090.646 respectively. Back to the STI chart showing the Fibonacci retracement ratios as above, both 3115.23 and 3090.646 are inside the range of 3139 to 3048. Thus should STI descend to either 3115.23 or 3090.646, that should not be a surprise either. Do expect downside coming and prepare for it. To fall from 3212.10 (22nd Mar 2019 closing) to 3115.23 and 3090.646 are just 3.02% and 3.78% away respectively, which is not impossible.
