STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (48)

Continued from STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (47)

STI-2
STI rebounded since hitting the low at 3104.03 on 3rd Jun 2019 and this shall be the Minor wave B of the Intermediate wave 2 correction as shown.

The question now is how much more upside can this wave B goes.  According to Elliott Wave guideline, depending on the pattern of wave B, it can rebound from 23.6% to 138.2% Fibonacci ratio with respect to wave A.

Above is the data generated by the Correction Calculator for all the possible wave B and wave C targets.  STI hit an intra-day high of 3223.64 on 14th Jun 2019 and this value definitely falls into the minimum requirement for wave B according to the data generated above.  STI could still have some more upside coming for wave B given that it has not shown a sign of a zigzag pattern yet.  The correction now brings forward to wave C.  From the low of 2955.68 to 3415.18 (Intermediate wave 1), STI has already hit the target of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (3130) with the low of 3104.03.  It is possible to move down further to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 3053.  Assuming a typical zigzag pattern for Intermediate wave 2 correction with wave A at 3104.03 and a wave C = wave A guideline, wave B could rise to the 85.4% Fibonacci retracement at 3369.752 of wave A and this will allow wave C to end at 3058.602, somewhere near the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement for I2.  This is what the Correction Calculator generates.  So is this scenario possible ?  There is no indication it is impossible given that wave B has yet to form a zigzag pattern indicating it could move up to the 3369 region as generated.

However, the above is assuming a typical zigzag pattern for A-B-C.  In practice, wave 2 correction can have various patterns.  It could even form the pattern whereby after completion of A-B-C, the lowest point of the whole correction is actually wave A (3104.03 in this case).  So keep options open and meanwhile be mentally prepared for wave B coming to an end in the coming week or weeks.

The above is the possibility of what can happen in STI-2 scenario.  Do also note that should STI fall below 3053 (the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement), this could raise the possibility that the STI-2 wave count is wrong.

STI-N

Despite the rebound in STI, that has not invalidated the STI-N scenario.  In STI-N scenario, STI is still in SuperCycle wave 2 correction with SuperCycle wave 1 ended in 2015.  The only way to invalidate this scenario is for STI to break above 3940.029.  So keep option open for this scenario.  Should this scenario eventually becomes the valid one, this brings out an interesting fact.  Back in Jan 2018 in STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (2), a pattern mapping was done and reproduced as followed.  This point also has been raised in STI Analysis -- Recap 2018 & Looking Ahead 2019.

The pattern mapping analysis shows that a peak will be occurred either in 2018 or 2019 with STI eventually bottom at 2020 or 2021 respectively.  Should STI-N scenario is the correct wave count going forward, the above pattern mapping that 2018 is the peak becomes true.  This suggests that since 1984 STI peak and trough can be predicted. 

A while back, a reader actually e-mailed queried on US market analysis with the EW Calculator.  While, at times US markets namely S&P 500 was been look at but it is solely for testing the EW Calculator capability and as such any US markets analysis will not be blogged.  However, a piece of advise on US markets at this junction -- better earn $100 less than losing $1000 later !