Continued from STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (54)
As US markets creating the all time high but rest of the global markets were relatively remained directionless despite all the hope of a recovery in 2020 after both US & China agreed on a "Phase One" trade deal verbally and posed to sign next month. However, the exact detail of the "Phase One" trade deal still remain unknown and that probably the reason for the directionless global markets. STI will no exception still stuck in the 2 extreme scenario meaning either way could still happen going into 2020.
STI-2
STI-N
As US markets creating the all time high but rest of the global markets were relatively remained directionless despite all the hope of a recovery in 2020 after both US & China agreed on a "Phase One" trade deal verbally and posed to sign next month. However, the exact detail of the "Phase One" trade deal still remain unknown and that probably the reason for the directionless global markets. STI will no exception still stuck in the 2 extreme scenario meaning either way could still happen going into 2020.
STI-2
Based on current event, this is the likely wave count for the STI-2 scenario in which STI is presently doing the SuperCycle wave 3, Cycle wave 3, Primary wave 1 and Intermediate wave 3 (S3C3P1I3).
The above is the Degree Calculator generated wave count for the STI-2 scenario. The calculated Intermediate wave 3 is 3833.712 and the Minor degree wave 1 is posed to either hit 3285.386 or 3395.058 depending whether there is a Minor wave 3 extension happening or not. Given the present market movement, it does look possible to hit at least 3285.385 to complete the Minor wave 1. Unfortunately, that is the surface view, Elliott Wave is not just about governed by the wave count but also the time frame for each of the wave degree that it will happen. The starting of Minor wave 1 was in Aug 2019 when it fell to a low of 3040.16 and now it is already into the 4th month, that time frame is far exceeding the guideline of few weeks for Minor degree. This is something of a big concern regarding whether the STI-2 wave count is the valid one or not. The margin of correctness for STI-2 scenario is very narrow now.
STI-N
The above is the wave count for the STI-N scenario in which STI is presently in the SuperCycle wave 2, Cycle wave C of the correction when SuperCycle wave 1 was peaked in 2015 after the 2009 GFC recovery. To be precise, Cycle wave C can be further broken down into lower degree of Primary and Intermediate. That will lead STI to various possible wave counts (as shown above) going forward into 2020. Due to the various possibilities, the margin of correctness for STI-N scenario remains wide and put it in a higher possibility than the STI-2 scenario. This wave count will lead to STI hitting the end of correction in 2020 to complete SuperCycle wave 2. This fits well with the pattern mapping that was done in STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (2) and reproduce as followed.
STI hitting a peak in 2018 since the low in 2009 has to remain true already given it is just days for 2019 to end and for STI to surpass 2018 high of 3641.65 for the next 1.5 day is practically impossible. With that, and the STI-N scenario, it maps the case of 2020 be next trough. If that is the case meaning 2020 will stage the recovery probably implies what most view that 2020 is the recovery year. However, to stage a recovery, one has to get to the worst, the fear, the panic selling stage of the wave C and STI has so far yet to witness that. Another advantage of this scenario over the STI-2 is the time frame factor. As STI is maneuvering in the Cycle wave C stage, the Cycle degree has the luxury of several years time frame to complete it. Even further broken down to the sub degree of Primary and Intermediate level, the shortest time frame is few months for things to work out.
US Market
As mentioned previously, US market is doing a "3-strike out". Strike 1 already happened and now it is en route to Strike 2 and hitting the all time highs is nothing to be surprise of and expected. In fact looking at the analysts' view on US market, majority started to think much better going forward in 2020 and not to forget some dude by the name of Trump will start to self praise what he has given the stock market. Like it or not, this is what exactly Elliott Wave is describing the majority psychological behavior for the final wave count -- wave 5. To sum up, Strike 3 will eventually come and all the praising, optimism, etc presently is just totally being described by Elliott Wave !
