Continued from STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (59)
STI-2
Awaiting for Elliott wave rule violation to invalidate
STI-N
Above is the update of STI Elliott wave count after market closed on 28th Feb 2020. Adjustment to the previous wave count that STI is in Intermediate wave ((c)) of Primary wave C of Cycle wave (Y) of SuperCycle wave ((2)). This is because with reference to the present situation due to Covid-19. Global spreading has started, the economy damage due to this Coronavirus has yet to factor in recession case. Singapore with no exception could not be ending the wave count soon meaning the downside to STI at the moment is not limited.
The new adjustment presents 2 possible wave count going forward.
Red Wave Count
This is similar to previous analysis just that STI is now doing the Minor wave (a) of Intermediate wave ((c)) of Primary wave C of Cycle wave (Y). wave (a) could be ending soon or some more to go (limited downside to that as of now). Thereafter shall be Minor wave (b), the rebound and eventually the final Minor wave (c) to complete the Intermediate wave ((c)), Primary wave C, Cycle wave (Y). That will be the end of the SuperCycle wave ((2)) correction which started in 2015.
STI-2
Awaiting for Elliott wave rule violation to invalidate
STI-N
The new adjustment presents 2 possible wave count going forward.
Red Wave Count
This is similar to previous analysis just that STI is now doing the Minor wave (a) of Intermediate wave ((c)) of Primary wave C of Cycle wave (Y). wave (a) could be ending soon or some more to go (limited downside to that as of now). Thereafter shall be Minor wave (b), the rebound and eventually the final Minor wave (c) to complete the Intermediate wave ((c)), Primary wave C, Cycle wave (Y). That will be the end of the SuperCycle wave ((2)) correction which started in 2015.
Above is generated by the Correction Calculator for the possible ending point for this wave count. This put it in the range between 2937.400 to 2723.269 (100% to 161.8% Fibonacci ration with reference to wave A).
Purple Wave Count
This is another possible to factor in a much more downside in particular recession for Singapore. The Cycle degree is shaped as an Expanded Flat pattern with a 3-3-5 structure. Wave (B) at 3641.65 exceeded the peak of SuperCycle wave ((1)) of 3549.85 justifying the guideline for a Elliott wave Flat pattern. What STI is in now is the Primary wave 3 of the 5-wave down for Cycle wave (C). At the moment Primary wave 3 doesn't look like ending soon. Assuming the 5-wave down in the normal rather than diagonal, the follow Fibonacci Calculator generates a possible values for the 5-wave.
The downside for Primary wave 3 could be in the region of 2276 and the eventual Primary wave 5 is 2119.129. At such a value for STI there is no doubt Singapore economy shall be in recession. Note, should the 5-wave plays out a diagonal wave, the above generated value shall not be conformed to.
Above is the Correction Calculator generated value for the Expanded Flat pattern for SuperCycle wave ((2)). As highlighted the possible range of ending level is between 2528.44 to 1840.476 (100% to 161.8% Fibonacci ratio with reference to wave AB). The value of 2119.129 generated by the Fibonacci Calculator just nicely sits in near the 138.2% Fibonacci ratio, making everything converging. In fact the above generated value was first posted in STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (53) in September 2019. Then not many will doubt STI can reach those levels but looking at current situation involving Covid-19, still think not possible ?
The breaking down of 2955.68 should enhanced the probability of the 2 possibilities. With STI closed at 3011.08 on 28th Feb 2020, just 55.4 points or 1.87% above 2955.68 level, the probability of breaking that is very very high.
Bargain buying at current level based on the above 2 possibilities just appear to be too early.
