Sunday, February 16, 2020

Strategic Investor Update

As mentioned in Investment Portfolio Strategic Divestment dated 7th Dec 2019 the full divestment of the Strategic section of the portfolio was to prepare for the fore coming crisis as according to 孙子兵法 -- 第十一篇, 九地篇.  The ongoing Covid-19 crisis is definitely one of the "地" as accord to the principle.  No, I do not have a crystal ball or the ability to predict the fore coming crisis is this Covid-19 when I started the full divestment from Sep to Dec 2019.  It is just merely the combination of the Elliott wave analysis I did (latest series STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (59)) plus following the 孙子兵法 system that is bind by the 13 principles (or the technical analysis is part of the system).  The full divestment registering a profit gain of +27.34% (reference to the total cost of the non-Strategic section) is a mean to increase the options to execute 孙子兵法 -- 第八篇,九变篇 to counter the 孙子兵法 -- 第十一篇,九地篇.  For the record, though the full divestment was a good move for this Covid-19 crisis, the process in doing that has couple of mistakes (in particular the timing of divestment) and that should not be overlooked.

The preparation for the fore coming crisis did not start when the Covid-19 started or the moment I divested the Strategic section last year.  It was in fact started way back in 2015 when I first adopted 孙子兵法 as a system into my investing.  It is part of the system when I restructured my Investment Portfolio into non-Strategic and Strategic section and also created the Stock Incubator portfolio.  The preparation is what the principle of 孙子兵法 -- 第一篇,计篇 about.  Along the way, it's just continue revising and refining to what was as of now.  To summarize, since 2015 I'm already prepared for the fore coming crisis or this Covid-19 crisis.

There are stocks that I wanted to add to my existing non-Strategic section for the fore coming crisis, the possibility of adding more of the existing stocks either via cash call (if there is one) or the usual mean.  However, at the end of the crisis it could end up none of the above was done.  This is not because miss the opportunity but for the reason due to value and fundamental investing.  In value and fundamental investing you only invest when there is a margin of safety.  Thus, even if the fore coming crisis leads to a fall in the stock price, should that price level still unable to provide that margin of safety no action will be taken.

In order not to miss the opportunity of a battled down stock price which many consider as cheap bargain, this is where the Strategic section and strategic mean to reduce the existing holding price at $0 cost come in.

故用兵之法,无恃其不来,恃吾有以待之;无恃其不攻,恃吾有所不可攻也


The above was mentioned in 孙子兵法 -- 第八篇,九变篇.  It means never hope enemies will not come but always prepared for it, never hope enemies will not attack but make it such that enemies could not find a mean to attack.  To put it in investing perspective, never hope crisis will not come but always prepared for one.