STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (69)

Continued from STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (68)

STI-N

The rebound from 2489.94 on 29th May 2020 should confirm STI has completed Intermediate wave ((b)) and started on Intermediate wave ((c)) of Primary wave 4.  As shown in the above chart, Intermediate wave ((b)) is a triangle pattern with the part (e) doing the typical overshoot.  

Above is generated by the Correction Calculator to find the possible ending value of Intermediate wave ((c)).  Before that, there are some statistics that could be used to further affirm the wave count.  The above Correction Calculator indicates wave ((b)) is 39.2% of wave ((a)).  According to Elliott Wave guideline on the Zigzag corrective pattern the followings are stated :-

1. Wave B typically retraces 38 to 79 percent of wave A

2. If wave B is a triangle, it will typically retraces 38 to 50 percent of wave A.

From the chart, the triangle pattern is very well defined and all the Fibonacci retracement ratio fit well into the guideline.  Thus, it is very highly the wave count is correct.  As the overall pattern for Primary wave 4 is a zigzag, this means Intermediate wave ((c)) will likely see a zigzag (or even a 5-wave sub-level) pattern.  What STI is experiencing now with the rebound is the Minor wave (a) of Intermediate wave ((c)).  Note also the declining in volume as STI move up since 29th May 2020, this could signal end of Minor wave (a) should be ending soon.  Thereafter should be the pull back for Minor wave (b) to form before resume the climb to complete Minor wave (c) -- Intermediate wave ((c)), Primary wave 4.

The question now is where Primary wave 4 will end ?  The Correction Calculator has generated list of possible targets.  With wave C mostly ends 100% to 161.8% of wave A for a typical zigzag pattern, the value ranges from 2953.10 to 3239.33.  A move above 2955.68 which is more than 100% of wave A is acceptable as it signifies a 5-wave diagonal structure whereby wave 4 overlap wave 1.  At the extreme end of wave C = 161.8% of wave A, the value 3239.33 is also acceptable as this value is still lower than the peak of wave 2 (3415.18) indicating that wave 4 did not have a rule violation of exceeding wave 2.

While all the above upside values look exciting as even at the lowest target STI still have 200+ point to go, it is better to remember that after Primary wave 4 is the last and ugly crash for STI breaking below the Mar 2020 low of 2208.42.

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