Continued from STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (107)
FTSE STI closed at 3,249.53 on 26th August 2022, up 5.77% since the low of 3,072.34 on 17th June 2022.
Magenta -- STI Positive
In this scenario STI is presently doing the Intermediate wave ((b)) of the Primary wave 2 correction. It is 10th week into it, 1 week short of the duration Intermediate wave ((a)) took. Looking at the movement, it doesn't look like it has completed its course. The dip from 3,307.29 could be the Minor degree wave of a zigzag pattern which indicating there is still some limited upside for the Intermediate wave ((b)). Of course this is in consideration Intermediate wave ((b)) is a simple zigzag pattern. However, should Intermediate wave ((b)) playing out to be a double-three or triangle pattern, it will extend the duration to complete. Do remember that after Intermediate wave ((b)) it will be the final down of Intermediate wave ((c)) to complete the Primary wave 2. Thus, there isn't much to look forward to until STI is in Intermediate wave ((c)) phase.
Green -- STI Negative / Orange -- STI Negative
The "silent killer" negative scenario still largely in play. While the positive scenario suggesting one last downward movement after Intermediate wave ((b)), the negative scenario (Green -- STI Negative) indicating very much more downside to come going forward. The end of Primary wave 2 in the positive scenario is just the Cycle degree wave A of the negative scenario with B and C to follow before the SuperCycle correction can be concluded to be completed.
The above is the overall wave count for STI in the SuperCycle, Cycle and Primary degree level for both the positive and negative scenario.
A final thought in this installment. The main talking point presently in global economy is none other than inflation. While Central Bankers are trying to curb it by raising interest rate (except for Singapore MAS which tweaking the SGD strength), one has take note that Central Bankers are always behind the curve as they act upon data. Data driven or data oriented approach is never proactive.
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