STI Analysis with Ichimoku AI System -- Part III

Continued from STI Analysis with Ichimoku AI System -- Part II

STI closed 3,540.50 on 7th Apr 2025 and as of now 8th Apr, STI still below 3,540.50.  With reference to the first AI prediction posted on 27th Mar 2025 (refer here) and part II on 6th Apr 2025 (refer here), it was stated the AI system has been predicting Sell signals for STI since Sept 2024, be it Strong or Weak signals, without a single Buy signals in between despite STI climbing higher and higher.

The above snapshots were what happened as of 7th Apr 2025 close.  With not much difference from those AI predicted Sell signals, the only difference was STI has dropped sharply since 4th Apr 2025.  The above was the AI model used to predict Buy and Sell signals for STI.  There wasn't any Buy signals since Sep 2024 with Buy probability stayed at rock bottom during these period while the Sell probability was at elevated level throughout.

The above snapshots were obtained with the AI system working on another model and only predict Sell signals.  Nothing much has changed from the 6th Apr 2025 post.  It was mentioned in the 6th Apr 2025 post that the first Strong sell signals started on 14th Nov 2024 at STI 3,738.16 and given STI at 3,540.50 at 7th Apr 2025, this has obviously dropped below the level the first Strong signal was being predicted by the AI system.  

As mentioned in previous post, should there isn't any Buy signals predicted during these periods and with STI fell below the 3,738.16 level, this is a proof that the AI system has been making the correct prediction since Sep 2024 (or Nov 2024) with the Sell signals despite STI scaling higher and higher.  This concludes the Ichimoku AI System has passed its first real test in predicting buy and sell signals and it has giving warning signs at least 5 months before the actual crash now !!!

The next test for the Ichimoku AI System shall be to predict Buy signals in which STI recover from the ongoing crash.  The same criteria will be applied, that is, continuous Buy signals without a single Sell signal in between even if STI further decline and the confirmation shall be STI recover to break above the level of the first Buy signal being predicted.

Background and Historical Facts

1. Around 2H2024, in an attempt to use the SkillsFuture credit before it expires in Dec 2025, I was snubbed by the snobbish SMU from attending the Ichimoku Technical Analysis course as I didn't attend the Basic Technical Analysis course conducted by them.  Despite reasoning that I'm not novice to technical analysis and am able to even use Elliott Wave to analyze stock market, they still continue the snub.

2. Around end Jan 2025 when China's Deepseek AI shocked the world with its performance, I was inspired with it and couple with feeling unjustified and anger from the snobbish SMU's snub, decided to embark on a journey to develop an Ichimoku AI System to predict when to buy or sell in stock market.

3. Around mid Feb 2025, with the assist from Deepseek given the fact programming is not my major but I do possess the basic essential knowledge of programming (well few years ago, I did develop an app to calculate Elliott Wave), I have completed the automation version of the Ichimoku system.  This has provided me the platform to develop the AI version.

4. By mid Mar 2025, the first version of the Ichimoku AI System has completed and was able to predict buy and sell signals with average or slightly above average accuracy.  That was used in the post dated 27th Mar 2025 to predict STI direction.

5. In order to increase the accuracy and performance of the AI prediction, additional features and enhancements were made that led to v2.3 of the app being completed in first week of Apr 2025 to carry out the 2nd analysis on STI (this post)

STI Analysis with Ichimoku AI System -- Part II

Continued from STI Analysis with Ichimoku AI System -- Part I

Since the last analysis on 27th Mar 2025, additional features and couple of enhancements were made to the app to improve its prediction accuracy.  As such, the app has upgraded to v2.3 (previous was v4 and renamed to v2.2).

Noticeable features are the inclusion of 2 AI Prediction mode.  In the previous version, the AI could only predict Hold, Buy and Sell together.  In this new version, 2 additional prediction modes were added -- predict only Buy signals and predict only Sell signals, to provide additional accuracy in predicting buy or sell signals.  Another feature is the inclusion of other Technical Indicators such as ADX, Bollinger Bands, EMA, MACD, OBV and RSI to provide additional confirmation to the Ichimoku signals on trend and momentum.  This can improve the accuracy of the AI prediction.

As for enhancement, Threshold, Buy Accuracy and Sell Accuracy were added to fine tune the AI model in its training and testing on historical data to make better prediction on the real dataset.

Above is the app doing the 3 classes AI prediction on STI.  As can seen from the 2nd screenshot and quite similar to the analysis done on previous version on 27th Mar 2025, Sell signals have been flashing since Sep 2024 despite STI climbing higher and higher.  

Above is switching the AI Prediction mode to Sell only meaning the AI model only predict Sell or no Sell signals using the same threshold, TA signals and AI model.  For the same period from Sep 2024 till now, more Strong Sell signals appeared than previously.

Next, the AI model was switched to one that is much better in doing binary prediction and maintaining the same threshold, this time with no additional Technical Indicators needed (just pure Ichimoku signals), the Strong Sell signals appears around the same period as previous analysis

Now, looking at another perspective, this time look at the AI model predict Buy only signals.  Using the same AI model and threshold setting, the above shows the Buy signals from the AI.  Looking at around end Aug 2024 to mid Sep 2024, there were Strong Buy signals predicted during the time STI hit a trough and rebound.  Thereafter, practically no Buy signals, not even a Weak Buy signals were predicted till now when STI was climbing higher and higher.  That pretty much matches the Sell signals prediction.  What's worrying is looking at the Buy signal prediction probability, it just sink lower and lower as STI climb higher and higher and hit rock bottom.

The above displayed the detail date at which Strong Buy, Weak Buy, Strong Sell and Weak Sell are being predicted and their respective STI closing value for that day.  The snapshot indicates that the Strong Sell signal on 14th Nov 2024 at STI 3,738.16 is the series of Strong Sell signals that lasted till today.  Now if STI going forward fell below 3,738.16 without a single Strong Buy signal being predicted in between, this will further strengthen the proof that the accuracy of the AI prediction.  The AI prediction has given warning at least 5 months earlier for the selling off we are seeing today !!!

Background and Historical Facts

1. Around 2H2024, in an attempt to use the SkillsFuture credit before it expires in Dec 2025, I was snubbed by the snobbish SMU from attending the Ichimoku Technical Analysis course as I didn't attend the Basic Technical Analysis course conducted by them.  Despite reasoning that I'm not novice to technical analysis and am able to even use Elliott Wave to analyze stock market, they still continue the snub.

2. Around end Jan 2025 when China's Deepseek AI shocked the world with its performance, I was inspired with it and couple with feeling unjustified and anger from the snobbish SMU's snub, decided to embark on a journey to develop an Ichimoku AI System to predict when to buy or sell in stock market.

3. Around mid Feb 2025, with the assist from Deepseek given the fact programming is not my major but I do possess the basic essential knowledge of programming (well few years ago, I did develop an app to calculate Elliott Wave), I have completed the automation version of the Ichimoku system.  This has provided me the platform to develop the AI version.

4. By mid Mar 2025, the first version of the Ichimoku AI System has completed and was able to predict buy and sell signals with average or slightly above average accuracy.  That was used in the post dated 27th Mar 2025 to predict STI direction.

5. In order to increase the accuracy and performance of the AI prediction, additional features and enhancements were made that led to v2.3 of the app being completed in first week of Apr 2025 to carry out the 2nd analysis on STI (this post)