Technically, long term trend is still down. Mid-term looks like trying to rebound and short-term is an up trend. The short-term rally might not last long either as looking at the ADX chart, even though the DI- is cutting down fast but the DI+ lacking the momentum to cut up. DI- and DI+ still negatively spaced and unless DI+ managed to cross over to DI-, the long term downtrend still not negate yet. MACD signals are cutting up and with MACD histogram at the zero line, short-term upside is there but since the MACD signals are still house in the negative region, the short-term uptrend might not have enough strength to sustain. RSI and Stochastic turned up and moved towards 50% showing some strength in the short-term rally. Based on past performance both the RSI and Stochastic have failed to breakout from the 50% level and this time might be the same, which signifies the short-term upside is not able to sustain for long. STI currently is being resisted at around the 1,825 level while support should be around the 1,500 level. If 1,825 is able break, further upside would be capped around the 1,960 level ( the level which was broken down for the downtrend weeks ago ). From the Elliott Wave perspective, the initial estimation of Wave C downside = 1.618x that of Wave A, almost hit that day when intra-day dipped to 1,473 ( estimated downside 1,400 ). The current rebound looks like Wave C was terminated on that day but on a wider picture, this rebound could be a sub-wave of the Wave C. Reason being Singapore just started having job-cut, most would be coming so in the next few quarters followed by salary-cut and majority of the people on the street have yet to felt the effect on that. As such, if current rebound is just a sub-wave of the Wave C, the final impact on the Wave C could bring STI down to as long as 1,200 level. Do keep this scenario as a possibility.
Last week, blue chips reporting were KepCorp, Capitaland, SMRT, SingPost and UOB. With Capitaland, SingPost and UOB suffered a drop in their earnings and UOB missed market expectation. However, the general consensus was looking aheads earnings might drop further. The coming week, OCBC, DBS, StarHub, ST Engg, SIA Engg, SembMar, SIA and SembCorp will be announcing their earnings. Main focus will be on the 2 banks as UOB already missed market expectation hence DBS and OCBC might follow. Bank stocks might be dragging down the index for the coming week. Below is the list of date for various companies announcing their result.
1. Great Eastern -- 3/11/08
2. HL Finance -- 3/11/08
3. SIA Engg -- 3/11/08
4. SATS -- 3/11/08
5. Sihuan -- 3/11/08
6. Plife -- 4/11/08
7. SembMar -- 4/11/08
8. SingFood -- 4/11/08
9. ST Engg -- 4/11/08
10. OCBC -- 5/11/08
11. UOL -- 5/11/08
12. SIA -- 6/11/08
13. ASL Marine -- 7/11/08
14. DBS -- 7/11/08
15. SembCorp -- 7/11/08
16. Noble -- 10/11/08
17. Biosensors -- 10/11/08
18. Synear -- 11/11/08
19. CitySpring -- 11/11/08
20. Goldenargi -- 12/11/08
21. Li Heng -- 12/11/08
22. SBS Transit -- 12/11/08
23. SingTel -- 12/11/08
24. Wilmar -- 12/11/08
25. CityDev -- 13/11/08
26. ComfortDelgro -- 13/11/08
27. Ho Bee -- 13/11/08
For the coming week, US Presidential Election on 4/11/08 might be able to sustain the uptrend for the time being ( historically markets usually play up for the election ) and more rate cut by Europe, England and Australia central banks might also be able to provide some support for a short-term rally. However, with US officially into recession, US employment situation reporting later in the week and DBS, OCBC earnings all after the US Presidential Election, anything can happen and market might even resume the downtrend again. It will be another volatile week looking aheads.
For short-term traders, advice is to remain cautious as market is till too volatile and any rebound is a chance to take profit or cut-loss.
For long-term investors with at least 5 years investment time frame, should be looking from fundamental point of view of a counter and decide on various entry prices to slowly collect, spread out the purchase and that could minimize the downside risk quite an amount.
