Nasdaq closed 1,720.95 for the week ended 31st Oct 08, up 168.92 points or 10.88% from previous week.
S&P500 closed 968.75 for the week ended 31st Oct 08, up 91.98 points or 10.49% from previous week.
Crude oil price finished the week at US$67.48/barrel as compared with previous week of US$63.94/barrel.
A recap of last week economic data/event is as followed.
- 27th Oct 08, New Home Sales reported 464,000, market consensus 450,000 and previous value 460,000.
- 28th Oct 08, Consumer Confidence reported 38.0, market expecting 52.0, previous value 59.8.
- 29th Oct 08, Durable Goods Orders came in 0.8%, market expecting -1.1% and previous value -4.5%.
- 29th Oct 08, US Federal Reserve cut Fed Fund rate by 0.5% to 1.0%.
- 30th Oct 08, 3Q08 GDP (1st revision) came in -0.3%, market consensus -0.5%, previous value 2.8%.
- 30th Oct 08, Jobless Claims reported 479K, market consensus 475K, previous value 478K.
- 31st Oct 08, Personal Income reported 0.2%, market expecting 0.1%, previous 0.5%. Consumer Spending reported -0.3%, market expecting -0.3%, previous 0.0%.
- 31st Oct 08, Consumer Sentiment came in 57.6, market consensus 57.5, previous value 70.3.
- 3rd Nov 08, ISM Mfg Index
- 4th Nov 08, US Presidential Election
- 5th Nov 08, ISM Non-Mf Survey
- 6th Nov 08, BOE and ECB announcement, Jobless Claims, Productivity and Costs
- 7th Nov 08, Employment Situation, Pending Home Sales
Technically, long term trend still down, mid-term displaying rebound and short-term is an up trend. The DI+ and DI- gap is narrowing with DI+ attempting to cut up to DI-, ADX dropped slightly below 40 level and if DI+ is able to cross over to DI- and with ADX maintaining around the 40 level, the uptrend could break current resistance around the 9,500 level and head towards the 10,300 level. MACD signals crossed over occurred and MACD histogram already in the positive region, this is a signal for short-term uptrend. However, note that MACD signals still in the negative region hence the uptrend probably can't sustain longer. RSI and Stochastic both closed above the 50% level signaling the short-term uptrend is with certain strength and could last for probably another few sessions before retreating. Note also for past months, both RSI and Stochastic all failed to hit or break the 70% and 80% level respectively. Therefore, the upside for this short-term rally might be capped around that level. Current support probably around the 7,800 level with immediate resistance around the 9.500 level and if that breaks next level of resistance would be around the 10,300 level.
For Nasdaq, long term trend is still down. Mid-term attempting to rebound and short-term is an up. The DI+ and DI- gap is narrowing with DI- coming down to cut below DI+. Note DI+ lack the strength currently to move up and that could be a worrying sign that this short-term uptrend could be resisted at current level of around 1,800. MACD signals has crossed over and with MACD histogram in the positive region signaling the short-term uptrend. However, the MACD signals still in the negative region hence the current uptrend probably would not be able to sustain for longer period. RSI hit the 50% level but retreat below it for the week, this could be worrying as the uptrend lack the momentum to sustain. Stochastic just hitting the 50% level but note also for past months both RSI and Stochastic were unable to hit or breakout from the 50% level and if that trend is so, short-term uptrend is definitely capped at current level now. Current support is around the 1,500 level with immediate resistance around the 1,800. If 1,800 is able to break, next resistance would be around the 1,940 level.
Short-term trend for S&P500 is up. DI+ and DI- is narrowing the gap with DI- moving down to cut below DI+ but DI+ lacking the momentum to move up, therefore this could signify the current short-term uptrend might not be able to sustain longer. MACD signals has crossed over and MACD histogram is in the positive region. However, the MACD signals are still in the negative region as such, short-term uptrend might n0t be able to sustain for long. RSI after hitting the 50% level, retreat and closed below that probably indicating S&P500 is capped at its current level. Stochastic just hit the 50% level and with reference to past months performance on RSI and Stochastic, both were unable to breakout from 50% level and this pattern could repeat itself again. Current support level is around the 840 level with immediate resistance at 980 level and if that breaks, the nex level of resistance would be at around the 1,100 level.
The coming week is important to US because of the Presidential Election. Whoever win the seat will have different impact on the global economy and stock markets. Current US market is on a short-term uptrend and that could be the play towards US Presidential Election as the long term trend is still down. With US reporting a 3Q08 GDP of -0.3%, this signifies US is just in the early stage of a recession and how deep and how long the recession will go is anybody guess. US Federal Reserve has cut its interest rate to 1.0% already and if the recession is deep, US Federal Reserve would run out of room on the interest rate to boost the economy. The coming Friday, US would report its employment situation data and this is another worrying economic data given that US is already into early stage of recession. US markets might be able to firm up a bit or trading sideway prior to the Election and the Employment data as what Craig Peckham said.
The market is "settling into a little bit of a holding pattern" ahead of the election and jobs report, said Craig Peckham, market strategist at Jefferies & Co. "The fear level has clearly subsided, but there's still a pervasive tone of unease."
