In the previous analysis, it was mentioned STI needs to move above 3338 to confirm the present correction which started in late January 2018 finally ended. STI closed 3297.83 on 20th Jul 2018 still some 40+ points away from the confirmation but some interesting facts have developed since hitting the bottom of 3176.26 on 6th Jul 2018.
The above chart is a reproduction (and addition detail) of the one that was posted on 12th Jul 2018 (refer previous analysis).
On 6th Jul 2018 I posted live (refer here) of a possible bottom after seeing STI hit 3176 and rebound from that. Well should that eventually be the bottom, it is not TA (or Elliott Wave) told me so but rather my instinct or 6.5th sense. Sometime if you are in the stock market long enough, you can develop that kind of instinct to spot a bottom or top. To conclude that was the bottom in TA perspective (even Elliott Wave) one still need concrete confirmation. I further elaborated on that day on the lookout for STI climbed back above the green-colored line within the red-colored down trend channel due to short-covering and bargain hunting. That was the signal to me that the worse is over. Indeed STI on 10th Jul 2018 climbed above the green-colored line. Though on 11th Jul 2018, on intra-day basis it dip below that line again but still managed to close the day above it. From then on, STI never dip below that line.
On 12th Jul 2018, I put on the Minor degree Elliott Wave trajectory as a guide to track the recovery and so far STI has been moving very closely to that trajectory. That is another added signal to me that the worse is over.
The above chart is one that I added another sub-level Minuette degree Elliott Wave analysis (marked dark green) coupled with its respective Fibonacci Retracement level as a guide. STI closing of 3297.83 on 20th Jul 2018 hit the 161.8% (3299) Fibonacci Retracement level for the Minuette degree wave iii. Should the coming days there is a pull back to probably 3270 (a 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement) level then that will be Minuette degree wave iv. A rebound from there will further confirm STI is on track on the Minute degree Elliott Wave. All these are pointing to STI hitting the 3338. As STI 3338 was once a muti-level support and now becomes a resistance, one would expect a pull back from there to complete the Minute degree wave (iv) as shown in the chart above.
While signs are pointing to an uptrend now, what is of concerns is the Minor degree wave 2 correction as shown in the chart above. Those level was the worst case scenario for Minor degree wave 2 correction with a possibility of hitting around the 3240 level. Should that event occurs, it should not seen as something bad as all these are just tracking what Elliott Wave is about. Question now is what can cause that correction ? Looking at the time frame this could happen in August to September and that the periods where US should have finished review the 2nd round of its tariff on China and act on it. Hence, nothing to be alarmed about when such an event happen.
On the US-China tariff tit-for-tat trade war, most analysts are saying US is winning the trade war as in term of monetary perspective US imports more of China products than China imports of US products. Well in term of the face value they are right but as an overall picture, China is the eventual winner rather than US. China holds more than US$1 trillion of US treasury bond, US biggest debtor and while US is going for protectionism burning down bridges one by one with its partners, China on the other hand is opening up its market to build more bridges with its partners. At the end of the day it is very obvious who will be the winner. Donald Trump is a man of high ego and this is also his weakness. He might be aware that in the long run he is not going to win the trade war but due to his high ego his backing down on the tariff now will be something he can't do as it will be hurting his esteem. That is probably the reason why China is willing to go head on with the tariff though it hurts its economy in the short term as that is the way to deal with man of high ego. The recent events of Donald Trump flip-floping in his NATO summit, UK visit, Russia visit and the attack on US Fed on raising interest rate could well be him trying to find a way out in backing down on the tariff war without losing face.
Another important event happened yesterday in Singapore was the stolen SingHealth data of 1.5 million of people. On the SingHealth hack, the response and reaction from the government is totally disappointing, a straight F grade. It is not just apologizing, a COI or press statement by leaders that the data stolen were of not much importance. What has been done can't be undone. Even if you managed to trace the hackers still can't undo that event. Nobody know what's the intention of the hackers going to do with the stolen data even though on the surface they look insensitive. They could have numerous options to do with the data like spreading out negative news to cause just a knee-jerk reaction to the financial market and they profit from it. Rather then just address that the stolen data were not sensitive and assure the public that those can't be used against him, the more appropriate way a PM should do is to quote some possible scenarios of what the stolen data can be used for and advise the public or nation to stay vigilant. Once you are on guard, the hackers will have limited options to take advantage on. That what a good and caring government should do !
Added 23rd Jul 2018
STI pulled back to a low of 3278.14 intra-day and closed 3293.71. The intra-day low almost hit the 3270 level, 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of Minuette degree wave iv. Should the next few days STI moved higher then 20th Jul 2018 high then it can more or less confirm Minuette degree wave iv is done and STI in Minuette degree wave v, the last leg of the Minute degree wave (iii), around the 3340 region. So far so good STI has been following what Elliott Wave is describing.Added 25th Jul 2018
STI hit an intra-day high of 3333.38 before closing at 3326.83. The move up today with high volume confirmed Minuette degree wave iv was hit on 23rd Jul 2018 and now it is on Minuette degree wave v. Either tomorrow STI moves up to the region between 3338 to 3350 to complete Minuette degree wave v of Minute degree wave (iii) or that stage is reached today. Upon completion of that, the pull back, Minuette degree wave a-b-c correction or Minute degree wave (iv) should end around 3290 (based on 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement).Added 26th Jul 2018
STI hit an intra-day high of 3341.42 touched the objective of the Minuette wave v as described yesterday and closed almost unchanged at 3328.60 resulting in a shooting star formation. Any pull back from tomorrow onward will not be surprised as that will be the Minuette wave correction or Minute wave (iv) (wave P3I3M5M3M5) with possible target around 3295, a 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement. It should not fall below 3275 as that will overlap with Minute wave (i) invalidating the wave count. Should such an scenario occurs, the high of today is Minute wave (i) and the pull back will be Minute wave (ii) (possible target 3240, a 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement).Primary wave 3 = P3
Primary wave 3, Intermediate wave 3 = P3I3
Primary wave 3, Intermediate wave 3, Minor wave 5 = P3I3M5
Primary wave 3, Intermediate wave 3, Minor wave 5, Minute wave 3 = P3I3M5M3
Primary wave 3, Intermediate wave 3, Minor wave 5, Minute wave 3, Minuette wave 5 = P3I3M5M3M5
The above notation will be used from now on for more clarity on which Elliott Wave degree it is referring to.
