STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (21)

Continued from STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (20)

Before begin, I decided to redefine Elliott Wave naming of wave count from now on.  The new naming is to ensure as the analysis gets into more lower levels, it will not be lost at which Elliott Wave count it is be with reference to the top most level.  Example of the naming is as followed :-

Primary wave 3 = P3
Primary wave 3, Intermediate wave 4 = P3I4
Primary wave 3, Intermediate wave 5, Minor wave 1 = P3I5M1
Primary wave 3, Intermediate wave 5, Minor wave 3, Minute wave 2 = P3I5M1M2
Primary wave 3, Intermediate wave 5, Minor wave 3, Minute wave 3, Minuette wave 4 = P3I5M3M3M4

Now the good news is STI since hitting the low of 3176 on 6th Jul 2018, is following the trajectory which I have penned out on 12th Jul 2018 (STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (19)).  What more interesting is apart from following the trajectory, the various Elliott Wave count based on Fibonacci Retracement level all hit despite it is just a guide.  

To ensure the correctness of the wave count, I further went into Minuette degree to track the wave count.  The purple count in the above chart showed the Minuette degree Elliott Wave.  So far it is very consistent with reference to the degree above it, Minute degree.  So now, STI is in P3I5M1M4, Minute degree wave 4.  Based on the Fibonacci Retracement level guideline, STI could be pulled back further early next week to a level around 3295 to complete the Minute wave 4.  Note that Minute degree can complete within 1 or few days and Minuette degree can complete within hours to 1 day.

After completion of P3I5M1M4 will be P3I5M1M5, that should break above 3340 and that the level whereby many TA chartists will confirm the bottom has been hit on 6th Jul 2018.  After P3I5M1M5 will be the pull back for P3I3M2 and that will be the last chance to get stocks cheap.

There is one observation I have made so far.  Tech and S-Reit stocks are a wave count (Minuette degree) ahead of STI while Financial stocks are a wave count (Minuette degree) behind STI.  Tech and S-Reit stocks have hit the Minuette degree peak a day or two before STI did on the same degree.  On the other hand, bank stocks are lag behind STI in hitting the Minuette degree peak.

Daily comments will be added below to track the development of Minute and Minuette degree wave count.

Added 30th Jul 2018

STI hit an intra-day low of 3301.12, just 6 points above the 3295 (38.2% Fibonacci Retracement for P3I5M1M4) before closing at 3307.15.  STI could tomorrow fell to 3295 to complete the Minute wave 4 (or 3281 for a 50% Fibonacci Retracement) or today already completed.  Any rebound tomorrow or next few days shall be P3I5M1M5 with a possible target at 3435 based on Fibonacci Retracement guideline of wave 1 : wave 3 : wave 5 = 1 : 1.618 : 1

Added 31st Jul 2018

STI hit an intra-day low of 3284.22, very closed to the 50% Fibonacci Retracement for Minuette wave 4 at 3281 described on 30th Jul 2018.  The rebound immediately allowed STI to closed 3319.85 with heavy volume.  That more or less confirmed Minuette wave 4 completion and now embarks on Minuette wave 5 of Minute wave 5 (P3I5M1M5).  The following chart describes the possible trajectory with Fibonacci Retracement level as a guideline going forward how STI going to complete Minor wave 1 of Intermediate wave 5 (P3I5M1).

Added 1st Aug 2018

A very interesting day as STI rose to an intra-day high of 3338.92 to close 3328.95, almost flat and forming a shooting star candlestick.  The 3338.92 was just slightly off the 3341.42 which I have initially drafted (refer chart on 31st Jul 2018) the possible trajectory for the Minuette wave 1 of Minute wave 5 (P3I5M1M5M1) yesterday.  Should that be the case then expecting STI to pull back tomorrow to possible 3305 (61.8% Fibonacci Retracement) for P3I5M1M5M2, very close to yesterday initial draft.

Added 2nd Aug 2018

STI hit an intra-day low of 3278.84, falling below 31st Jul 2018 intra-day low of 3284.22, thereby invalidating the case that current wave count is P3I5M1M5 as stated on 1st Aug 2018.  As such, STI could have a truncated Minuette wave 5 thus completed Minute wave 1.  Hence the fall for today is the Minute wave 2 of Minor wave 1 of Intermediate wave 5 of Primary wave  (P3I5M1M2) as shown in the updated chart below

As this is the wave 2 correction, can expect STI to fall to 3238 (61.8% Fibonacci Retracement) or 3211 (78.6% Fibonacci Retracement).  Anything beyond that a recount will have to carry out.  

Another least possible case that explained today drop is STI still in Minute wave 4 correction doing a combination pattern (flat, double-three, etc) (P3I5M1M4) and Minute wave 5 (P3I5M1M5) has yet to be started.  This scenario will be invalidated should STI falls below 3274.95, the top of Minute wave 1.

Added 3rd Aug 2018

STI fell to an intra-day low of 3264.61, closing at 3265.73 thereby invalidating the case that it is doing a Minute wave 4 correction as described yesterday.  Thus, STI should be now see as doing a Minute wave 2 (P3I5M1M2) correction as described yesterday.

Added 6th Aug 2018

STI rebounded and closed 3285.34 for the day.  The Minute wave 2 correction did a less than 50% Fibonacci Retracement and potentially could fall to 3215 (78.2% Fibonacci Retracement) or 3240 (61.8% Fibonacci Retracement) which is pretty common for wave 2 correction.  If there is further downside, the rebound today should be the Minuette wave B.  However, if STI is able to rebound further and hit pass 3340 then Minute wave 2 is considered completed and STI is on Minute wave 3 with a potential target of 3444 if based on wave 3 : wave 1 = 1.618 : 1 guideline.

Added 7th Aug 2018

STI broke above 3340 on intra-day basis and closed on the dot at 3340.00 in hgher volume than yesterday,  Situation now biased towards Minute wave 2 completed and no on Minute wave 3.  What to look out for and assure it is Minute wave 3 will be the subsequent pull back which is Minuette wave 2 should not fall below 3296 (a 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement guide).  On the other hand if it is Minute wave 3, STI 3400 and 3483 will be a guided target for completion of Minute wave 3 and 5 respectively.

Added 8th Aug 2018

STI as expected pull back to an intra-day low of 3308.86 before closing at 3326.74.  That intra-day low almost hit the 50% Fibonacci Retracement at 3306 if current count is considered as Minuette wave 2 of Minute wave 3.  Further downside could be expected for this Minuette wave 2 if following the guideline of 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement (3296).  However, any rebound that lead to breaking higher than the multi-tested resistance of 3340 will affirm Minuette wave 3 of Minute wave 3 (P3I5M1M3M3)

Added 10th Aug 2018

The drop today to an intra-day low of 3273.57 and eventually closed 3284.78, which is more than 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement for a Minuette wave 2.  Though this has not invalidated Minuette wave based on Elliott Wave rule that wave 2 cannot retreat more than wave 1, this is caused the possibility that Minute wave 2 correction still ongoing with a potential target of 3238 (61.8% Fibonacci Retracement).  As long as STI unable to breakout at 3340, Minute wave 3 cannot be confirmed.