Above is the chart of the Elliott Wave analysis of ThaiBev correction since the start in Aug 2016. Applying the guideline that diagonal is allowed in the 5-wave for a corrective wave, it ended up the overall correction having a Double-three (flat - zigzag) pattern, a very common correction pattern nowadays. The ((W)) wave itself is made out of a Flat (3-3-5) pattern, a 5-wave last leg with an ending diagonal pattern in the wave v. The ((X)) wave is of ANY Three pattern and in this case it is a triangle (3-3-3-3-3) pattern. The ((Y)) wave is a zigzag (5-3-5) pattern. The 1st half (wave A) of the zigzag is a 5-wave while the 2nd half (wave C) of the zigzag is a diagonal pattern (the overlapping of wave iv with wave i). If goes by this structure, the bottom should be reached for ThaiBev on 31st August 2018 when it hit an intra-day low of $0.605 before closing at $0.62. Note also that on this day, a Long-legged Doji was formed (opening and closing price being the same). For candlestick analysis, a doji especially a long-legged one is a trend reversal indicator. The volume on that day, 40.51M was relatively on the high too.
Coupling with previous analysis, ThaiBev Analysis, in which a pure a-b-c pattern was applied to map out the correction pattern, the optimism case also suggested the fall is the last at that time of writing. While it still lack concrete evidence to affirm that $0.605 was the bottom but it does provide some possibility.
Above chart is the case that $0.605 was the bottom and current phase is the Wave 1 of the new up cycle. Going by the guideline that Wave 1 consists of a sub-level 5-wave impulse, with $0.66 being the peak of sub-wave 1, $0.695 the peak of sub-wave 3 and $0.75 the peak of sub-wave 5 also the peak of Wave 1. $0.75 is in fact the 261.8% Fibonacci Ratio. Should the price of ThaiBev going forward is able to hit that level before a pull back and the pull back (Wave 2) cannot be lower than $0.605, it is a good confirmation already.
Meanwhile, the risk-reward ratio does look very attractive. Downside is $0.605, a 5.47% risk (reference to closing price of $0.64 on 7th Sep 2018) while the upside return is 53.91% (target of $0.985, wave 5 of the new up cycle if goes by 261.8% Fibonacci Ratio and this is also the high in Aug 2018 before correction) or more (if there is an extension in Wave 3 or Wave 5 which results in moving higher than $0.985).
Added 10th Sep 2018
Regardless of Elliott Wave count or Fibonacci Ratio, it is all about the vertical dimension of how the stock price behaves. Unfortunately, very few has studied on how the horizontal dimension (time) behaves. While vertically, stock price is co-related to Fibonacci Ratio, the same should be apply horizontally, that is a relationship of peak and trough or turning point in stock price with respect to the time. The only tool present is the Fibonacci Timezone. Came across practically little example on that but looking at the rationale of Fibonacci Timezone it seems to be have some use, just that how to use it correctly probably is the big question.Fibonacci Timezone uses the concept of Fibonacci Sequence (0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, ......). The essence of that is the division between subsequent number will give you the golden ratio (1.618, next number divided by current or 0.618, current number divided by next). The answer will get closer and closer to the golden number when the sequence getting bigger and bigger. In fact, the division between the 10th and 11th number (55, 89) already gives a very close answer of 1.618 or 0.618. As such, applying the Fibonacci Timezone to ThaiBev chart and indeed found something worth mentioning.
Added 11th Sep 2018
The close at $0.61 just a bid above the recent low and that low looks going to breakdown too. Should that happen, it doesn't mean the above Elliott Wave count is invalidated in particular the ending diagonal pattern. Each wave of the ending diagonal pattern is consisted of a zigzag pattern and the wave v of the ending diagonal looks like forming the zigzag at the moment. A check on the Fibonacci Ratio guideline whereby wave iii at 161.8% is around the $0.68 level and that has achieved. Should it following the guideline in which wave v will end at the 261.8% Fibonacci Ratio, that will be around $0.565. If now it is forming the zigzag part of the wave v of the ending diagonal then the fall to $0.565 is very possible at the moment. Thus, the continuous drop in price does not mean the Elliott Wave count is invalidated just that it has yet to run its full course only. Should it play out as what is being described, this will be a very good reference and archive in the future for Elliott Wave count on correction, the most difficult part of Elliott Wave analysis.Added 15th Sep 2018
Managed to rebound from $0.61 and not breakdown at $0.605 so far. If that drop to $0.61 is the zigzg of ending diagonal wave v then the rebound from that should conclude the completion of the pattern already. Alternatively, this could be the "whipsaw" which is commonly observed near the bottom of a correction which is unable to account for in Elliott Wave concept. Should it be the "whipsaw" might have another or a few pull back and rebound, something similar to retest the recent low to create a support. Thus, the wave count that $0.605 is the bottom still valid.Added 3rd Oct 2018
After hitting a low of $0.605, ThaiBev completed the correction which started in 2016 and took about 2 years to complete. Since then, the rebound, the pull back, the rebound, the pull back and now today the rebound all work out nicely in Elliott Wave pattern.
Using the basic model w1 : w3 : w5 = 1 : 1.618 : 1 as a guide, it hit the peak of Wave 1 at $0.66, pull back to $0.61 to form Wave 2. The rebound hit a peak at $0.70 for Wave 3, slightly highly than the 161.8% at $0.694. Next is the pull back for Wave 4 to $0.66. While its touches the peak of Wave 1 at $0.66 but did not fall lower to cause overlap. This part is the unclear as should touching consider overlap or an exception ? Then the rebound to form Wave 5 today, price hits pass $0.70, peak of Wave 3 and if the Fibonacci Ratio guide is to follow, $0.75 shall be the peak of Wave 5. The case of Wave 4 touching Wave 1 is it allow for no rule violation ? Guess to archive this incident will be good for future.
Added 25th Oct 2018
The breakdown at $0.635 signified the correction is not over when the price fell to $0.605 on 31st Aug 2018. This means the above wave count is incorrect and the correction still ongoing.
Above is the new wave count. It did a Flat correction from a high of $0.985 to $0.7.65 forming the W wave of a double-three combination. The rebound to $0.865 os the X wave and now is the Y wave. With a sub-wave count of a-b-c to (a)-(b)-(c), obviously, there will be one more down wave, hopefully is the last. From statistical calculation
Wave Y = 61.8% Wave W => $0.729
Wave Y = 100% Wave W => $0.645
Wave Y = 123.6% Wave W => $0.593
Wave Y = 138.6% Wave W => $0.561
Wave Y = 150% Wave W => $0.535
Wave Y = 161.8% Wave W => $0.509
Since 61.8% and 100% are impossible now, the ending point could be between $0.509 to $0.60. $0.60 is the key level now, should it break, anything below to $0.509 is possible.
