Discovered something new that clear couple of doubts in previous wave count. Hence, updating and redefining the present correction wave count.
The above chart is the wave count for this S3C3P2 correction in the last analysis. Intermediate degree Wave A, IA was formed at 3176.26 on 6th Jul 2018. This led to Wave IB to be at 3347.98 on 7th Aug 2018 resulting in now in Wave IC doing a 5-wave diagonal to make the overall correction a 5-3-5 zigzag pattern. However, there are couple of doubts in that wave count which couldn't understand until now. The doubts are listed in the chart above as :-
1. Occurrence of 5-wave pattern in Wave IB and Wave M2 (of Wave IC). Those are so-called anti-direction wave and should observe just a simple zigzag structure.
2. Wave IB appears to the valid but the structure looks too simple for an Intermediate degree.
3. The so-called 5-wave diagonal in Wave IC having too huge the price movement for its M1 and M2 wave.
After thorough thoughts and questionings, came to a conclusion that the above wave count is incorrect as the two 5-wave structure in IB and M2 are too obvious to be ignored their presence. Furthermore, the two 5-wave structure also caused jumping in conclusion too early that the correction has ended in the past analysis (STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (19) and (26)). This leads to re-examine the possibility of what pattern can be made out of it and how it fit into the wave count.
The above chart is the new wave count to accommodate that abnormal observation as discussed above.
Firstly, only a zigzag and flat have a 5-wave structure in their pattern. Sandwich in between the 2 doubtful 5-wave structure is a 3-wave zigzag. That makes a possible explanation that from 6th Jul - 3rd Oct it is playing a 5-3-5 zigzag for Wave IB. This means Wave IB ends at 3272.88 on 3rd Oct 2018 instead of 3347.98 on 7th Aug 2018. However, the question is can this pattern be valid given that MB moves beyond MA in the zigzag structure, something that should not be happening and could be considered as a rule violation.
If the 5-3-5 zigzag pattern is ruled out for Wave IB, that means only a Flat (3-3-5) pattern can fit in. There is no issue with the 5-wave in the Wave MC part of Wave IB as it is supposed to be for a Flat pattern. Wave MB of Wave IB exceeded Wave MA and that is allowed in the case of an Expanded Flat pattern. The question is how to account for the 5-wave in Wave MA ? The only possible solution is that the 5-wave actually a double-three combination pattern of Minor degree (mW - mY). In doing so, this will make the 3 in the 3-3-5 pattern. Therefore, the pattern for Wave IB is an inverted Expanded Flat (3-3-5) is more logical than a ZigZag (5-3-5). The Expanded Flat explanation could be incorrect too because of the 5-wave occurrence but for the time being this is the closet solution. Regardless it is an Expanded Flat or ZigZag for Wave IB, one thing of certain is Wave IB ended at the upper boundary of the downtrend channel, which is more reasonable, logical and acceptable compared with previous analysis.
With this new definition of Wave IA - IC, the followings are what this correction represent :-
1. The overall correction pattern is still a Intermediate degree ZigZag (5-3-5) with Wave IA from 3641.65 to 3176.26 (2nd May to 6th Jul 2018). Wave IB is an Expanded Flat (3-3-5) from 3176.26 to 3272.88 (6th Jul to 3rd Oct 2018). Now it is in Wave IC, which should be either doing a 5-wave impulse or diagonal structure. The drop to 3030.21 on 16th Oct 2018 and rebound to 3087.84 on 17th Oct 2018 at the moment is questionable whether that is considered being Wave M1 & M2 of Wave IC.
2. The final destination of the correction, end point of Wave IC will be different from previous analysis given Wave IB has moved. Using the guideline that Wave IC = Wave IA in length, this will lead Wave IC to 2807.49 compared to the previous value of 2882.59. This new value still fall between the 61.8% - 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement level for a Wave 2 correction, something that happens 15% of the time.
At this moment just have to see how Wave IC will be playing out in particular how the 5-wave structure is being formed.
Added 31st Oct 2018
STI rebounded to close at 3108.8 with an intra-day high of 3020.49 after hitting the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 2955.68 on 26th Oct 2018. Is the bottom of the correction since May ended ? Theoretically, it is possible given that it has hit the 61.8% Fibonacci level for this Primary Wave 2 correction, 73% of the time it ended there. Have to look at the wave count to see whether that scenario is possible or not.
The above chart presents 3 wave count -- Red, Magenta and Grey.
Red Wave Count
The correction is doing a 5-3-5 ZigZag pattern. Wave IA consists of 5 wave impulse of Minor degree M1 - M5. Wave IB is an inverted Expanded Flat (3-3-5). Wave IC should be doing either a 5-wave impulse or diagonal of Minor degree M1 - M5. The low at 3030.21 on 16th Oct could be M1, the rebound to 3087.84 could be M2 and the low at 2955.68 could be M3. If so, the rebound today should be M4. However, for this case to be valid, M3 is only 0.545 of M1, that is too short and invalid. This means 2955.68 could not be the end of the correction as the wave count is not completed. Furthermore, the statistic calculation points to IC = 2807.49 if it is to be 100% of IA as shown in the chart. Should the statistic be accurate, 2955.68 could be just M1 and the rebound today is M2.
Magenta Wave Count
This wave count uses the simple 3-wave ABC method. Wave IA ends at 3176.26 on 6th Jul 2018 and consists of a Minor degree MA-MB-MC. Wave IB is the inverted Expanded Flat as described in the Red Wave Count. STI now is in Wave IC. The low at 3030.21 could be MA of IC, MB is the rebound to 3087.84. If that is the case, 2955.68 shall be the MC of IC. This means it is possible for 2955.68 to be the end of the correction. Next, from statistical perspective to determine whether it is possible or not. The statistic are all listed in the chart above. The IC relation with respect to IA is the same as the Red Wave Count. However, this wave count is different from the Red Wave Count in that the statistic relation of MA - MC of the IC can be calculated. The calculation shows that if 3030.21 and 3087.84 are MA and MB respectively, MC, which is IC, = 2937.87 if it is 61.8% of MA and 2845.17 if it is 100% of MA. Both the values are lower than 2955.68 meaning it is still impossible 2955.68 is the end of correction. This also suggests 2955.68 is the MA of IC while 3030.21 and 3087.84 are the Minute degree mA and mB of MA.
Grey Wave Count
This wave count is similar to the Red Wave Count, a 5-3-5 structure. The only difference is the location of the Wave IB. In fact this was the initial wave count since corrected the start of correction to May instead of January. This wave count remain valid despite the doubts of the occurrence of the two 5-wave in the anti direction. To cater for that, the two 5-wave shall be treated as a double-three structure. With this wave count, Wave IC at 2955.68 should be Wave M3 and M1 - M5 should be doing a 5-wave diagonal instead of impulse (in Wave IA). The rebound today should be the Wave M4. Should the rebound M4 is able to move above 3103 overlapping M1, this is confirm the diagonal structure. The statistic calculation for this wave count is as shown in the chart above. With this wave count, if IC = IA in length, this will put STI at 2882.59 to end the correction. This wave count also does not suggest 2955.68 is the end of the correction too.
Grey Wave Count
This wave count is similar to the Red Wave Count, a 5-3-5 structure. The only difference is the location of the Wave IB. In fact this was the initial wave count since corrected the start of correction to May instead of January. This wave count remain valid despite the doubts of the occurrence of the two 5-wave in the anti direction. To cater for that, the two 5-wave shall be treated as a double-three structure. With this wave count, Wave IC at 2955.68 should be Wave M3 and M1 - M5 should be doing a 5-wave diagonal instead of impulse (in Wave IA). The rebound today should be the Wave M4. Should the rebound M4 is able to move above 3103 overlapping M1, this is confirm the diagonal structure. The statistic calculation for this wave count is as shown in the chart above. With this wave count, if IC = IA in length, this will put STI at 2882.59 to end the correction. This wave count also does not suggest 2955.68 is the end of the correction too.
Based on Primary Wave 2 Fibonacci Retracement level, STI is not far away from end of correction. Based on wave count, there is still some more downside for STI. The rebound for STI today could either be the last or second last rebound before the final drop.
Added 2nd Nov 2018
With the way STI has rebound since hitting 2955.68, question was asked whether 2955.68 is the end of the correction. The various wave counts shown on 31st Oct 2018 does not suggest so. However, if 2955.68 was indeed the bottom of the correction, the only wave count that could map out that is as shown below.
This wave count shows that the correction is doing a double-three pattern, IW-IX-IY. The wave count looks no conflict and should be considered valid. Before jumping into conclusion, let looks at the statistical analysis for this wave count. The statistic is shown in the chart above.
For IA portion :-
MB = 31.97% MA
MC = 3176.26 (139.93% MA)
For IB portion :-
IB = 58.39% IA
For IC (IW) portion :-
MB = 47.02% MA
MC = 3102.73 (100.16% MA)
For IX portion :-
IX = 31.57% IW
For IY portion :-
MB = 23.75% MA
MC = 2955.68 (54.46% MA)
IY = 2955.68 (58.86% IW)
The only question about this wave count is IY being too short, not even 61.8% of IW. This definitely raise doubt about whether the correction has ended at 2955.68. While these statistic are just guidelines and not rules, should it turn out to be end of the correction, these statistic could prove a good reference in the future. The rebound looks very promising but should not jump into conclusion too easily.
Regardless the wave counts on 31st Oct or the above wave count, the strong confirmation of STI correction is over is for STI to breakout from 3272.88 (3rd Oct 2018) and this is the critical level now.
